Market efficiency and cointegration: Some evidence in Pacific-Basin black exchange markets

This paper investigates the efficiency of the black exchange markets in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. The study applies unit root and cointegration tests to examine black exchange market efficiency of Pacific-Basin countries. The generating process of black exchange rates appears to be a random walk. This is consistent with Gupta (1981) and other foreign exchange rate unit root test studies. Johansen cointegration tests are performed for these black exchange markets together with Japan and Singapore. The results suggest that there is at least one unit root among the black market exchange rates. Hence, black exchange markets are not collectively efficient.     

The role of (non-)transparency in a currency crisis model

This paper extends the work by Morris and Shin (Am. Econom. Rev. 88 (1998) 587-597) where multiple equilibria in the self-fulfilling currency attack models can be reduced to a unique equilibrium when agents observe fundamentals privately with small errors. We find that under a more general specification with realistic parameters, noisy private observations are generally insufficient to prevent the multiplicity of equilibria. The pivotal role played by the transparency of fundamentals/policies in currency crisis is also examined. Surprisingly, transparency may trigger rather than eliminate currency crises when fundamentals are relatively healthy. Our results may be relevant to research in other coordination problems.     

Can Trade Agreements Curtail Trade Creation and Prevent Trade Diversion?

This paper investigates how pre‐existing preferential trade agreements (PTAs) dilute the trade creation effect and shield the trade diversion effect of new PTAs. Countries having pre‐existing PTAs enjoy smaller gains in intra‐bloc trade because of the dilution effect and experience smaller losses or even gains in extra‐bloc trade because of the shielding effect. The findings support the proposition that PTAs could be used to fend off future trade diversion.     

Death of linkages in host countries? A firm‐level study on the channels of productivity spillovers in the Malaysian manufacturing sector

Productivity spillovers from multinational corporations (MNCs) to local firms have been an area of keen research interest in developing economics. Claims of positive spillovers in the form of technology transfers have been questionable, in part because of the many ambiguous conclusions obtained. The paper argues that the lack of focus in the mechanisms underpinning spillovers may be one of the reasons for the ambiguity. Using local input–output linkages as the mechanism for technology transfer, this study examines the presence and the enabling conditions for spillovers. Accounting for the variations in firms' characteristics, the findings show that skills‐oriented MNCs participating in international production networks transmit horizontal spillovers to local establishments. Vertical spillovers from MNCs are mostly relevant only to lower‐skilled establishments. For skilled and export‐oriented local establishments, technologies learned from producing for international production networks are more significant than forming linkages with MNCs in the domestic market.     

Relevance of the disposition effect on the options market: New evidence

A moneyness‐based propensity to sell (MPS) measure, at the aggregate level, determines the propensity of option holders to exercise their winning relative to losing positions. Using data on individual stock and S&P 500 Index options, we find that the MPS measure has significant predictive power over the cross section of delta‐hedged option returns. We test the disposition effect in the options market based on a long–short strategy that exploits price distortions induced by the disposition bias. More pronounced evidence of the disposition bias is found for individual at‐the‐money call options than put options where the significance of abnormal returns remains robust across different subsamples even after we control for the portfolio option greeks and market‐based risk factors. The profitability of the long–short strategy is related to limit‐to‐arbitrage proxies suggesting that behavioral explanations help explain the positive relation between the MPS measure and delta‐hedged option returns.     

Mutual Caring—Resolving Habituation Through Awareness: Supporting Meaningful Learning From Projects

This study used Grounded Theory methodology and developed an emergent theory of Mutual Caring. The main concern was Habituation to ineffective lessons learned sharing practices. Habituation is resolved through Mutual Caring, a socially and psychologically adaptive process. Mutual Caring involves comfortable conversations, engaging/sharing, and developing self‐confidence, resulting in an enhanced wisdom pool. This paper extends the emphasis on tangible knowledge‐sharing mechanisms. Mutual Caring could lead to better outcomes, such as more accessible and usable knowledge, a project management wisdom pool, and criteria for improved dyadic relationships to enhance project learning.     

Analyst Herding and Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from China

We examine the proposition that firms with disproportionately more analysts herding in their coverage, as measured by a larger herding index value, have higher crash risk. Our findings are consistent with the main proposition. The results suggest that information production, rather than monitoring, is the primary mechanism behind the positive relation between herding and crash risk. Our conclusion is robust to different measures of crash risk, crash risk windows, herding measures, subsamples, and instrumental estimation. In addition, using post‐earnings announcement drift, we report that analyst herding slows down bad news transmission in the market. Our findings extend the literature by documenting that analyst herding plays a role in enhancing crash risk. Analyst herding has economic consequences on the covered firms. We offer support for the concern in the literature regarding analyst herding and market fluctuations.     

Mean-variance hedging in the presence of estimation risk

Review of Derivatives Research - The mean-variance hedging (MVH) with a significant risk-aversion coefficient is approximately equal to the minimum-variance (MV) hedge. However, how large the...     

Integration of network data envelopment analysis and decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory for the performance evaluation of the financial holding companies in Taiwan

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has been constantly used to measure the technical efficiency of decision-making units (DMUs). However, the major problem of traditional DEA methods is that they do not consider the possible intermediate effects. Recently, many papers have applied network DEA models to evaluate the efficiency scores. However, the linking activity of DMUs is still hard to be recognized. Hence, we employ DEMATEL to obtain the linking activity of DMUs. Our empirical research shows that the proposed method can soundly deal with the purpose of identifying the relationship between variables and derive the reasonable result in network DEA.