Asymptotic behaviour of regression pre-test estimators with minimal Bayes risk

Pre-test estimators (PTE) are considered which are optimal under a Bayes risk among PTE with general measurable sets as “regions of significance” for the test statistic t associated with the estimate of a given regression coefficient. Asymptotic and some finite sample results are stated and numerical experiments are commented on.     

Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump

Appropriate real‐time forecasting models for the US retail price of gasoline yield substantial reductions in the mean‐squared prediction error (MSPE) at horizons up to 2 years as well as substantial increases in directional accuracy. Even greater MSPE reductions are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most successful forecasting models. Pooled forecasts have lower MSPE than the US Energy Information Administration gasoline price forecasts and the gasoline price expectations in the Michigan Survey of Consumers. We also show that as much as 39% of the decline in gas prices between June and December 2014 was predictable. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Effect of Behavioral Contagion and Tie-Strength on Calorie Intake in Food Courts

Major contributors to the obesity epidemic are societal and result from sedentary lifestyles and consumption of high-calorie diets. Previous studies suggest that food choice behavior is socially transmissible. Hence, knowledge of the impact of social influence on calorie intake is critical to improve the understanding about the outcomes of policies related to healthful diets. There is the need to analyze the influence of social networks on choosing food in a public place. Thus, we interviewed groups of food court patrons in an all-you-can-eat college dining hall. Results show individuals dining in a group with at least one obese group member are consuming more calories from high-calorie foods and fewer calories from low-calorie foods. Food-related interactions in a group influenced food consumption. Hence, dining with obese peers likely increases calorie intake.     

Career mentoring in context: A multilevel study on differentiated career mentoring and career mentoring climate

This study explores how supervisor career mentoring contributes to contemporary organizational career development, which strives to foster employees' promotability while strengthening their intention to stay. Specifically, we focus on the implications of career mentoring in team contexts. Applying a multilevel framework, we distinguish between individual‐level differentiated mentoring (i.e., an employee's mentoring perceptions as compared to those of other team members) and group‐level career mentoring climate (i.e., the average perception across all group members). In a workplace setting, we collected data from vocational job starters (N ranged from 230 to 290) and their company supervisors (N ranged from 56 to 68). We find that career mentoring climate positively relates to promotability, more so than differentiated career mentoring. Both career mentoring climate and differentiated career mentoring are positively related to the intention to stay. At the individual level, this relationship is mediated by job satisfaction. We discuss theoretical and practical implications of differentiated and group‐level mentoring.     

Rezensionen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

What mbo really is: Results require a complete program

Management by objectives (MBO) is commonly described too narrowly; firms that report unsuccessful experiences have been practicing a limited program. To clear up the confusion that beclouds MBO, the authors first describe the concept and its emphasis on results (the achievement of objectives) and on human behavior and motivation (fulfillment of needs and participation). The MBO system is then examined. The system has four basic components: setting objectives, developing action plans, conducting periodic reviews, and appraising annual performance. Many firms have found that MBO plays the leading role in the managerial process of achieving corporate objectives. The authors list seven major benefits that an organization can expect.     

Flexible estimation of price response functions using retail scanner data

Kalyanam and Shively [1998. Estimating irregular pricing effects: a stochastic spline regression approach. Journal of Marketing Research 35 (1), 16–29] and van Heerde et al. [2001. Semiparametric analysis to estimate the deal effect curve. Journal of Marketing Research 38 (2), 197–215] have demonstrated the usefulness of nonparametric regression to estimate pricing effects flexibly. The empirical results of these two studies, however, also revealed that nonparametric regression may suffer from too much flexibility leading to nonmonotonic shapes for price effects. In this paper, we show how the problem of nonmonotonicity can be dealt with without losing the power of flexible estimation techniques. We propose a semiparametric approach based on Bayesian P-splines with monotonicity constraints imposed on own- and cross-price effects. In an empirical application, we illustrate that flexible estimation of own- and cross-price effects can improve the predictive validity of a sales response model substantially, even when price response curves were constrained to show a monotonic shape, as suggested by economic theory. We also discuss the consequences from an unconstrained estimation of price effects.