Price Rigidity and the Selection of the Exchange Rate Regime

We evaluate and qualify Friedman's, 1953, “case for flexible exchange rates” in the presence of sticky prices in a two country model. We find that a flexible regime performs indeed better when the degree of nominal price rigidity is high while a bilateral peg does better when prices are fairly flexible. This result obtains independent of whether monetary policy is activistic or not and is mostly due to the negative relationship between employment and productivity shocks when prices are relatively sluggish (Gali, 1999). A unilateral peg tends to produce the lowest level of world welfare but it sometimes represents the best monetary arrangement for the pegger. JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E52, F33, F42     

Compliance Costs for Employers: UK PAYE and National Insurance, 1995–96

This paper, based upon research financed by the Inland Revenue and the Contributions Agency of the DSS, presents calculations of the compliance costs for employers of PAYE and National Insurance in 1995–96. Total costs are estimated to have been of the order of £1.3 billion. The costs are very unequally spread across employers, whether measured per employee or per pound of tax raised. They are particularly high for small new employers. For the largest employers, these costs may be offset by the cash-flow benefits of acting as tax collectors. The composition of labour and other costs is calculated and estimates are made of compliance costs under various payroll ‘technologies’. The main determinants of compliance costs, for an employer, are analysed using weighted least-squares regression analysis. Finally, some policy implications are considered.     

Closing the Savings Gap? The Role of the Saving Gateway

The 2001 election manifesto committed Labour to introducing two innovative policies designed to increase savings and assets among future generations, and the low-income families of today. The Child Trust Fund aims to provide all children with an endowment of assets when they reach the age of 18. Child Trust Fund accounts became available in April 2005 to all children born from 1 September 2002. The Saving Gateway offers a new savings account for lower-income families, designed to encourage savings. The first Saving Gateway pilot took place between 2002 and 2004; a second, larger pilot is currently underway. This article outlines the key findings from the evaluation of the first Saving Gateway pilot.1 Overall, the results are positive—the scheme has encouraged participants to save, and to save regularly. In addition, it seems to have resulted in positive psychological and attitudinal changes among a significant proportion of participants.     

A structural model of US aggregate job flows

This paper contributes to the analysis of jobs flows dynamics through the explicit modelling of job creations and job destructions. We propose a simple matching model extended for endogenous separation and tractable heterogeneity. The parameters of the model are estimated using a simulation‐based estimation method. We then test the ability of trade externalities, generated by the matching process, to (i) propagate reallocation and aggregate disturbances in the whole labor market and (ii) generate the observed distribution of aggregate job flows. The results clearly indicate that the model is able to match the dynamics of US aggregate job flows. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Imperfect information and the business cycle

Imperfect information has played a prominent role in modern business cycle theory. This paper assesses its importance by estimating the new Keynesian (NK) model under alternative informational assumptions. One version focuses on confusion between temporary and persistent disturbances. Another, on unobserved variation in the inflation target of the Central Bank. A third on persistent mis-perceptions of the state of the economy (measurement error). And a fourth assumes perfect information (the standard NK-DSGE version). Imperfect information is found to contain considerable explanatory power for business fluctuations. Signal extraction seems to provide a conceptually satisfactory, empirically plausible and quantitatively important business cycle mechanism.     

Recent Technological and Economic Change among Industrialized Countries: Insights from Population Growth*

Cross‐country observations on the effects of population growth are used to show why differences in rates of growth in working‐age population may be a key to understanding differences in economic performance across industrialized countries over the period 1975–1997 versus 1960–1974. In particular, we argue that countries with lower rates of adult population growth adopted new capital‐intensive technologies more quickly than their high population growth counterparts, therefore allowing them to reduce their work time without deterioration of growth in output‐per‐adult.     

Euler equations and monetary policy

Euler equations are the key link between monetary policy and the real economy in NK models. Under separable preferences, they fail to match interest rates. Non-separability between leisure and consumption significantly improves their fit and reliability for studying monetary policy.