Evaluating the H-1B visa program： Theoretical issues

The H-1 B visa program is popular and controversial at the same time. It is supposed to serve U.S. interests by helping bring some of the most talented scientists and engineers （S＆E） to this country. There is considerable dispute, however, whether the program is successful in this regard, or whether employers misuse it to undercut the salaries of citizens and green card holders who apply for the same positions. This paper sorts out some of the theoretical issues that complicate empirical analyses and which, if ignored, could produce misleading results.     

Estimating returns to soil conservation adoption in the northern Ethiopian highlands

Land degradation in the form of soil erosion and nutrient depletion presents a threat to food security and sustainability of agricultural production in many developing countries. Governments and development agencies have invested substantial resources to promote soil conservation practices as part of an effort to improve environmental conditions and reduce poverty. However, limited rigorous empirical work has been done on the economics of soil conservation technology adoption. This article investigates the impact of stone bunds on value of crop production per hectare in low and high rainfall areas of the Ethiopian highlands using cross-sectional data from more than 900 households, with multiple plots per household. We have used modified random effects models, stochastic dominance analysis (SDA), and matching methods to ensure robustness. The parametric regression and SDA estimates are based on matched observations obtained from the nearest neighbor matching using propensity score estimates. This is important, because conventional regression and SDA estimates are obtained without ensuring that there actually exist comparable conserved and nonconserved plots on the distribution of covariates. We use matching methods, random effects, and Mundlak's approach to control selection and endogeneity bias that may arise due to correlation of unobserved heterogeneity and observed explanatory variables.
We find that the three methods tell a consistent story. Plots with stone bunds are more productive than those without such technologies in semi-arid areas but not in higher rainfall areas, apparently because the moisture conserving benefits of this technology are more beneficial in drier areas. This implies that the performance of stone bunds varies by agro-ecology type, suggesting the need for designing and implementing appropriate site-specific technologies.     

Monetary,fiscal, and structural drivers of inflation in Ethiopia: new empirical evidence from time series analysis

This study empirically investigates the drivers of inflation in Ethiopia using monthly data over the period July 1998 to September 2020. It explores short-run and long-run effects of domestic and external determinants of inflation—including demand-side, supply-side, and structural factors—using the cointegration and vector error-correction methodology. Four measures of inflation are considered: cereals, food, nonfood, and all-items Consummer Price Index (CPI) inflation. A key contribution to the existing literature is the investigation of the role of the fiscal sector in modeling inflation, a topic that has been neglected in the existing studies on inflation in Ethiopia. The empirical results show that disequilibria in the monetary sector, grains sector, and food markets have long-run effects on inflation. In the short run, inflation is driven by structural factors (notably, cereal output gaps and imported inflation) as well as demand-side factors (notably, money growth and public sector borrowing). The results hold when analysis is limited to the high growth period from 2005 onward, following the end of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program in the country. The evidence provides valuable insights in the context of ongoing macroeconomic policy reforms in Ethiopia.