The system of Ferney: A fable

This paper is an allegorical essay which attempts to provide a critical perspective on systems analysis. It employs both the language and rationale of systems analysis within the structure of the fable. More specifically, it uses the schematic representation of The World Model (found in the Meadows, et al., The Limits to Growth) as the political and social divisions of the Ferney System. The integrating tool for technological assessment within this metaphorical system is the Delphi Method of Futures Research. Expert opinion-consensus serves as the chief mode of governance. The actual history of Ferney, within the fable, is a loop feedback process.     

Major fire in a steam-methane reformer furnace

Causes of a major fire which resulted when a pigtail ruptured on a 10-year old hydrogen plant reformer and led to the destruction of 54 catalyst tubes.     

Bayesian time series analysis of periodic behaviour and spectral structure

Analysis, model selection and forecasting in univariate time series models can be routinely carried out for models in which the model order is relatively small. Under an ARMA assumption, classical estimation, model selection and forecasting can be routinely implemented with the Box–Jenkins time domain representation. However, this approach becomes at best prohibitive and at worst impossible when the model order is high. In particular, the standard assumption of stationarity imposes constraints on the parameter space that are increasingly complex. One solution within the pure AR domain is the latent root factorization in which the characteristic polynomial of the AR model is factorized in the complex domain, and where inference questions of interest and their solution are expressed in terms of the implied (reciprocal) complex roots; by allowing for unit roots, this factorization can identify any sustained periodic components. In this paper, as an alternative to identifying periodic behaviour, we concentrate on frequency domain inference and parameterize the spectrum in terms of the reciprocal roots, and, in addition, incorporate Gegenbauer components. We discuss a Bayesian solution to the various inference problems associated with model selection involving a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis. One key development presented is a new approach to forecasting that utilizes a Metropolis step to obtain predictions in the time domain even though inference is being carried out in the frequency domain. This approach provides a more complete Bayesian solution to forecasting for ARMA models than the traditional approach that truncates the infinite AR representation, and extends naturally to Gegenbauer ARMA and fractionally differenced models.     

Reputational Threat and Image Repair Strategies: Northern Ireland Water’s Crisis Communication in a Freeze/Thaw Incident

December 2010 saw exceptionally harsh winter weather cause major water supply disruption for thousands of Northern Ireland’s citizens. Sustained low temperatures followed by a rapid thaw led to burst water pipes on an unprecedented scale, triggering a water shortage crisis that attracted global media attention. Government-owned Northern Ireland Water (NI Water) received severe criticism for their response to the incident. This article analyzes the reputational threat posed by the crisis and examines the image repair strategies employed by NI Water before, during, and after the event. The crisis was complex and dynamic, requiring a multistrategy response including bolstering, corrective action, mortification, and shifting the blame. However, this was ultimately deemed largely ineffectual since it was more operationally focused than consumer-oriented. The case study adds to the limited research in public sector crisis communication and illustrates how politics and the governmental organizational structure complicated the threat to NI Water’s image.     

A case of an early 1900s principal-agent relationship in the Mississippi lumber industry

Correspondence for the L. N. Dantzler Lumber Company, dating from 1904, survives in the Lumber Archives of the University of Mississippi. The correspondence is from the personal files of R. Breland, who rose to the position of office manager of the Dantzler Mills. An analysis of the correspondence reveals a unique agency relationship between the Dantzler Lumber Company and Breland. Breland was hired by the Dantzlers as a land agent. At the time, he was also employed by the Finkbine Lumber Company, a competitor of Dantzler's. Breland's behaviour supports the traditional behavioural assumption in agency theory that individuals will maximize their own self-interests with guile. His access to information allowed him to profit at the expense of others. He used his connections in land-related transactions to achieve personal gain.     

The parable of the Sadhu. 1983

When does a group have responsibility for the well-being of an individual? And what are the differences between the ethics of the individual and the ethics of the corporation? Those are the questions Bowen McCoy wanted readers to explore in this HBR Classic, first published in September-October 1983. In 1982, McCoy spent several months hiking through Nepal. Midway through the difficult trek, as he and several others were preparing to attain the highest point of their climb, they encountered the body of an Indian holy man, or sadhu. Wearing little clothing and shivering in the bitter cold, he was barely alive. McCoy and the other travelers-who included individuals from Japan, New Zealand, and Switzerland, as well as local Nepali guides and porters-immediately wrapped him in warm clothing and gave him food and drink. A few members of the group broke off to help move the sadhu down toward a village two days' journey away, but they soon left him in order to continue their way up the slope. What happened to the sadhu? In his retrospective commentary, McCoy notes that he never learned the answer to that question. Instead, the sadhu's story only raises more questions. On the Himalayan slope, a collection of individuals was unprepared for a sudden dilemma. They all "did their bit," but the group was not organized enough to take ultimate responsibility for a life. How, asks McCoy in a broader context, do we prepare our organizations and institutions so they will respond appropriately to ethical crises?     

Using identity structure analysis (ISA) to investigate female entrepreneurship

The process of founding a business is for most people a period of transition entailing taking on a new role. Such a transition will often result in a change of values and beliefs. For some women, values ascribed to the entrepreneur will conflict with conventional feminine values. Previous researchers have classified women in accordance with their degree of attachment to entrepreneurial values and conventionally defined masculine-feminine values (Goffee and Scase 1985, Cromie and Hayes 1987), but to date there has been little attempt to examine the process of change in women's values and beliefs as a result of business start-up.

This paper reports on the first attempt to use Identity Structure Analysis (Weinreich 1980/1986/1988) to investigate entrepreneurship: in this case, specifically female entrepreneurship.