Do small businesses adjust their capital structure? Evidence from the global financial crisis in Japan

We investigate the extent to which small businesses adjust their capital structures to target levels when their leverage increases substantially during a financial crisis. We examine Japan's Emergency Credit Guarantee (ECG) program during the 2008 global financial crisis. The increased leverage from the use of the ECG program during the crisis increased the probability of default. Additionally, small businesses adjusted their leverage ratios to the target range before the crisis. However, such adjustments were weak during and after the crisis, particularly for target firms in the ECG program.     

Existence of Equilibria in Matching Models of Money: A New Technique

This paper develops a new technique for proving the existence and indeterminacy of monetary equilibria in money search models with divisible money. Our technique is substantially simpler than standard constructive proofs in the literature. This paper is based on the second half of Kamiya and Shimizu (2002). We are very grateful to the associate editor and an anonymous referee of this journal for their very detailed suggestions and comments. This research is financially supported by Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research from JSPS and MEXT. The second author also acknowledges the financial support by Zengin Foundation for studies on Economics and Finance.     

ON THE ROLE OF TAX SUBSIDY SCHEME IN MONEY SEARCH MODELS*

This article investigates the roles of policy in search models with divisible money. Recently, real indeterminacy of stationary equilibria has been found in both specific and general search models with divisible money. Thus if we assume the divisibility of money, it would be quite difficult to make accurate predictions of the effects of simple monetary policies. Therefore, in this article, we introduce a certain tax subsidy scheme and show that this is effective in selecting a determinate efficient equilibrium. In other words, for a given efficient equilibrium and for any real number δ > 0 , a certain tax subsidy scheme induces a locally determinate equilibrium within the δ‐neighborhood of the given equilibrium. Moreover, the size of the tax subsidy can be arbitrarily small.     

Schumpeterian patterns of innovation and the sources of breakthrough inventions: evidence from a data-set of R&D awards

This paper examines the relationship between Schumpeterian patterns of innovation and the generation of breakthrough inventions. Our data source for breakthrough inventions is the “R&D 100 awards” competition organized each year by the magazine Research & Development. Since 1963, this magazine has been awarding this prize to 100 most technologically significant new products available for sale or licensing in the year preceding the judgment. We use USPTO patent data to measure the relevant dimensions of the technological regime prevailing in each sector and, on this basis, we provide a characterization of each sector in terms of the Schumpeter Mark I/Schumpeter Mark II archetypes. Our main finding is that breakthrough inventions are more likely to emerge in ‘turbulent’ Schumpeter Mark I type of contexts.     

Impact of Online Customer Reviews on Sales Outcomes: An Empirical Study Based on Prospect Theory

This study examines the influence of the valence of online customer reviews on sales outcomes based on prospect theory. Numerous studies have revealed the importance of customer reviews in online marketing. However, only few studies have explored the impact of online customer reviews on sales outcomes in the dynamic process. Prior studies in behavioral economics literature have indicated that people differently value gains and losses and that losses have more emotional impact than an equivalent amount of gains. This study verifies whether prospect theory applies to the relation between online customer reviews and sales outcomes. Relevant data were collected from Amazon.co.jp, and three statistical models were employed to investigate the relation between the two factors. Major findings confirm that negative customer reviews considerably impact online sales than positive reviews. Furthermore, the findings indicate that the marginal effects of positive and negative reviews decrease with the increase in their volume. The results of this study will enable marketers to compare the relative sales effects of different types of customer reviews and improve the effectiveness of customer service management.     

Variance of Firm Performance and Leverage of Small Businesses

We investigate the relationship between leverage and firm performance using small business data from Japan by estimating the effects of leverage on both average firm performance and the variance of firm performance. We find that leverage has a negative effect on average firm performance and a positive effect on the variance of firm performance. This suggests that the problem of moral hazard is severe for highly leveraged firms. However, when highly leveraged firms have sufficient collateral assets, the effects of leverage are positive for average performance, but negative for the variance of performance. This implies that when small firms have sufficient collateral assets, highly leveraged businesses are better performers.     

Residential rents and price rigidity: Micro structure and macro consequences

Why was the Japanese consumer price index for rents so stable even during the period of the housing bubble in the 1980s? To address this question, we use a unique micro price dataset which we have compiled from individual listings (or transactions) in a widely circulated real estate advertisement magazine. This dataset contains more than 700,000 listings of housing rents over the last 20 years. We start from the analysis of microeconomic rigidity and then investigate its implications for aggregate price dynamics, closely following the empirical strategy proposed by Caballero (Caballero and Engel, 2007). We find that 90% of the units in our dataset had no change in rents per year, indicating that rent stickiness is three times as high as in the United States. We also find that the probability of rent adjustment depends little on the deviation of the actual rent from its target level, suggesting that rent adjustments are not state-dependent but time-dependent. These two results indicate that both the intensive and extensive margins of rent adjustments are small, resulting in a slow response of the CPI for rent to aggregate shocks. We show that the CPI inflation rate would have been higher by 1% point during the bubble period, and lower by more than 1% point during the period following the burst of the bubble, if Japanese housing rents were as flexible as those in the United States.     

Is the information produced in the stock market useful for depositors?

The information produced by sophisticated investors in the stock market may be useful for uninformed depositors. Since much information is not produced for Shinkin banks (cooperatives) in Japan, relying on the information from the stock market may be an efficient decision for these depositors. This paper provides empirical evidence that Shinkin depositors seemed to withdraw funds after observing a fall in the stock prices of other banks.     

Semiparametric Model of Hedonic Housing Prices in Japan

We propose a semiparametric hedonic model of housing prices with nonlinearity in age and cohort effects. The model avoids the simultaneity problem among age, cohort and year effects, which is a common problem in linear hedonic models. Applying the model to housing prices in Tokyo between 1990 and 2008 revealed significant nonlinearities in both the age and cohort effects, and significant interactions between these effects, with the shape of the age effect differing across housing cohorts. Estimates of the year effect indicated a declining trend in prices that was more pronounced compared with those of conventional linear hedonic models.     

The distributional effect of the rice policy in Japan, 1986–2010

This study aims to evaluate the distributional effect of the governmental rice policy in Japan on producers, consumers, and government expenditures from 1986 to 2010 using a partial equilibrium model. Policy measures include government purchase of rice, output payment, and acreage control. The simulation result shows that acreage control has been the principal policy measure for transferring income to producers, especially since the enforcement of the WTO Agreement on Agriculture. Acreage control is the policy measure with the lowest total efficiency and highest budgetary efficiency. This result implies that the government’s goal of transferring income to producers with minimum government cost has been achieved through a combination of policy measures.