From “Broad Studies” to Internet-based “Expert Knowledge Aggregation”. Notes on the methodology and technology of knowledge integration

The article takes as a starting point Herman Kahn's concept of a process-based approach to future-oriented knowledge aggregation and integration and discusses the opportunities created by Internet technologies to achieve the goal envisioned by such a model. The article briefly introduces a general framework for analyzing knowledge aggregation, the use of various aggregation mechanisms as well as aggregation systems that rely either on human facilitators (meta-experts) or on computer algorithms. Available online instruments for knowledge aggregation and expert challenge are presented and the possibility of using them for setting up “virtual think tanks” for foresight studies is explored.     

Can probability theory deal with entrepreneurship?

The Austrian theory of entrepreneurship emphasizes the importance of epistemic heterogeneity and the unlistability of the set of all possibilities. A similar concern with what has been called “the art of choosing the space of possibilities” is an important part of Bayesian model selection. Both Austrian and Bayesian authors view the common knowledge assumption as an unrealistic and unnecessary restriction. This coincidence of concerns leads to a joint theory of entrepreneurship. Three important benefits result from this merger: (1) the ability to use Itti & Baldi’s Bayesian theory of surprise to empirically measure radical surprise and improve the Betrand competition model as a consequence, (2) dealing with the unlistability problem, and (3) better understanding why the emergence of common knowledge is always the outcome of a social process rather than an inherent consequence of “rationality”.     

Understanding farmers’ preference for traits of chickens in rural Ethiopia

Traditional poultry production plays an irreplaceable role in the sustenance of livelihoods in rural Ethiopia. Ironically, however, much has been done to replace indigenous poultry breeds with exotic genetic resources regardless of the importance producers and consumers attach to attributes of the resources. This study aims at informing policy to establish effective indigenous poultry breeding and conservation programs. Discrete choice experiment (DCE) was employed to generate data. Designing of the DCE involved identification, definition, and measurement of attributes of adaptive, productive, and sociocultural importance considering the multiple functions of village chickens. Random parameters logit and the generalized multinomial logit (G‐MNL) models were used to estimate taste parameters. Economic values of traits of chickens were estimated using the utility in willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) space approach, based on G‐MNL model formulation. The results show that important traits of chickens to farmers are mothering ability, diseases resistance, and meat and eggs taste. These findings question the appropriateness, at least in the prevailing production system, of the Ethiopian national government's effort to improve productivity in village poultry by targeting specialized egg‐layer improved chickens. The findings also suggest that poultry breeding programs aiming to provide readily acceptable breed technology by farmers need to prioritize traits of adaptive importance, and mothering ability, instead of focusing on egg productivity only. The key implication is that the unique qualities of the indigenous poultry breeds need to be carefully identified and prioritized before resorting to those that proved to be successful in different production systems.     

Is inflation targeting or the fixed exchange rate more effective for attracting FDI into developing countries?

This article investigates which monetary policy regime – inflation targeting or the fixed exchange rate – is more effective for attracting FDI inflows into developing countries. Using propensity score matching and the difference-in-differences estimator, we find no evidence that adopting an inflation targeting regime would be more effective than adopting a fixed exchange rate, and vice versa, in encouraging FDI inflows.     

State capitalism and the rent-seeking conjecture

The notion that state capitalism (an economic system “in which the state functions as the leading economic actor and uses markets primarily for political gain”) is a new form of capitalism emerging in the global arena has been recently advanced by several authors. This paper explores the problem of the nature of this system in the light of these claims to novelty. What are its main features as described by these authors? Is state capitalism distinctive from other forms of capitalism or other types of economic systems? Are we really witnessing the emergence of a new type of economic system? To address such questions the paper starts by trying to place the model of state capitalism within the traditional comparative economic systems framework. The inconclusive result leads to a different approach in which the concept of rent-seeking society is used to underlie the structural similarities between mercantilism, real life socialism and state capitalism. The article argues that the conjecture that what has been labeled “state capitalism” is yet another form of rent-seeking system is both robust and worth further investigating.     

Understanding post-communist transitions: the relevance of Austrian economics

The Review of Austrian Economics - The economic literature about the post-communist transition focused primarily on the debate between gradualism and “shock therapy”, and on issues such...     

James M. Buchanan’s 1981 visit to Chile: Knightian democrat or defender of the ‘Devil’s fix’?

Nobel Prize winning economist James M. Buchanan has repeatedly argued that the “political economist should not act as if he or she were providing advice to a benevolent despot” (Boettke Constitutional Political Economy, 25, 110–124, 2014: 112), but an increasingly influential body of scholarship argues that Buchanan provided a wealth of early 1980s policy advice to Augusto Pinochet’s military dictatorship in Chile (e.g., Fischer 2009; Maclean 2017). In particular, Buchanan reportedly provided an analytical defense of military rule to a predominantly Chilean audience when he visited the country in late 1981. This paper draws upon largely ignored archival evidence from the Buchanan House Archives and Chilean primary source material to assess whether Buchanan provided a defense of Pinochet’s “capitalist fascism” (Samuelson 1983) or whether he defended democracy when he visited Chile in 1981. Aside from the importance of this for assessing Buchanan’s own legacy, his constitutional political economy arguments presented in Chile also provide an interesting and distinct perspective on the connection between democracy and growth, which remains highly relevant to current debates. Despite a general agreement about the desirability of democracy, the view that authoritarian regimes can spur “growth miracles”, or might even be a necessary stage in political-economic development, still has prominent supporters (e.g. Sachs 2012).

     

Real exchange rate misalignment and business cycle fluctuations in the Asia-Pacific

Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment, which is the deviation between the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium, occurs frequently among developing countries. Studies have shown that RER misalignment may have negative economic implications, such as a decline in economic growth, exports, and export diversification and an increased risk of currency crises and political instability. Using quarterly data for 22 sample countries from 1990 to 2018, this paper investigates the impact of RER misalignment on business cycles in the Asia-Pacific by employing a panel vector autoregression involving consumer price index (CPI) inflation, output gap, short-term interest rates, and RER misalignment. We find that RER overvaluation may reduce CPI inflation and short-term interest rates. We also find that the Asia-Pacific region is highly heterogeneous in that the output gaps of some countries, particularly from the Southeast Asian region, are more susceptible to RER misalignment shocks.