What drives housing price dynamics in Greece: New evidence from asymmetric ARDL cointegration

In this paper, we study the dynamics between house prices and selected macroeconomic fundamentals in Greece. The empirical analysis applies the asymmetric ARDL cointegration methodology proposed by Shin, Yu and Greenwood-Nimmo (2011) over the period from January 1999 to May 2011. The evidence suggests that ignoring the intrinsic nonlinearities may lead to misleading inference. In particular, the results reveal significant differences in the response of house prices to positive or negative changes of the explanatory variables in both the long- and short-run time horizons. The obtained evidence of asymmetry could be of major importance for more efficient policymaking and forecasting in the Greek house market.     

Modelling Heterogeneity and Uncertainty in Contingent Valuation: an Application to the Valuation of Informal Care

Both the lack of market data and the need to adopt a more holistic approach in the valuation of non‐market activities within health care have pointed towards the use of contingent valuation (CV) methods. However, to date, few studies have employed such techniques to value informal care, despite its provision being an important public policy question. We propose an analytical framework that through the use of random parameters models and respondents' certainty scales can incorporate both unobserved and observed heterogeneity in the CV modelling. This is the first CV study of informal care for Scotland (UK) and a £7.68 per hour value is estimated.     

The role of transaction costs and risk aversion when selecting between one and two regimes for portfolio models

Estimation of the inputs is the main problem when applying portfolio analysis, and Markov regime-switching models have been shown to improve these estimates. We investigate whether the use of two-regime models remains superior across a range of values of risk aversion and transaction costs, in the presence of skewness and kurtosis and no short sales. Our results for US data suggest that, due to differences in their risk preferences and transactions costs, most retail investors may prefer to use one-regime models, while investment banks may prefer to use two-regime models.     

Manipulation of profits in Italian publicly-funded healthcare trusts

ABSTRACT

This paper examines earnings management in state-funded Italian healthcare trusts. Italy is unique in requiring trusts to have balanced budgets by law. Small negative and positive deviations from a balanced budget had quite different consequences. The authors found no evidence of accounting manipulation when trusts posted small losses. However, trusts were found to manipulate discretionary accruals, provisions and non-operating expenses to reduce small positive deviations from zero-profit.     

Option Pricing in Stochastic Volatility Models of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type

Stochastic volatility models of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type possess authentic capability of capturing some stylized features of financial time series. In this work we investigate this class of models from the viewpoint of derivative asset analysis. We discuss topics related to the incompleteness of this type of markets. In particular, for structure preserving martingale measures, we derive the price of simple European-style contracts in closed form. Furthermore, the range of viable prices is determined and an empirical application is presented.     

Government spending and revenues in the Greek economy: evidence from nonlinear cointegration

This paper attempts to re-evaluate the long-run macroeconomic relationship between government revenues and expenditures of the Greek economy over the period 1999–2010. The empirical analysis applies the newly developed asymmetric ARDL cointegration methodology of Shin et al. (2011) which permits more flexibility in the dynamic adjustment process towards equilibrium, than in the classical case of a linear model. Our findings point towards the fiscal synchronization hypothesis, supporting evidence of asymmetric interactions between the two fiscal components in both the long- and the short-run time horizon. More particularly, in the long-run, the negative changes of expenditures dominate the response of revenues, while the opposite applies in the response of expenditures.     

Is Moderate Market Performance in the U.S. a Sufficient Condition for Abnormal Returns on CEFs?

In this project, our topic pertains to examination of market efficiency, employing data from closed-end funds (CEFs) trading in the American stock market. Employing both aggregate and individual data, we examine whether or not moderate market performance is a sufficient condition in order to achieve abnormal returns, in the short-run, through exploitation of discount deviations from its mean value. The main hypothesis tested is that market performance affects the mean-reverting properties of CEFs’ discount. Moderate market performance ensures the mean-reversion of CEFs’ discount and points to cointegration between the share prices of CEFs and their net asset value (NAV). Furthermore, when NAV is identified as the common stochastic trend of the system then, market inefficiency is detected.     

Measuring systemic risk in the European banking sector: a copula CoVaR approach

We propose a new methodology based on copula functions to estimate CoVaR, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of the financial system conditional on an institution being under financial distress. Our Copula CoVaR approach provides simple, closed-form expressions for various definitions of CoVaR for a broad range of copula families and allows the CoVaR of an institution to have time-varying exposure to its VaR. We extend this approach to estimate other ‘co-risk’ measures such as Conditional Expected Shortfall (CoES). We focus on a portfolio of large European banks and examine the existence of common market factors triggering systemic risk episodes. Further, we analyse the extent to which bank-specific characteristics such as size, leverage, and equity beta are associated with institutions' contribution to systemic risk and highlight the importance of liquidity risk at the outset of the financial crisis in summer 2007. Finally, we investigate the link between macroeconomy and systemic risk and find that changes in major macroeconomic variables can contribute significantly to systemic risk.     

A comparative analysis of the work values of Greece's ‘Millennial’ generation

This study adds to the growing body of international evidence concerning the millennial generation (i.e. those born after 1980), by documenting the work values of millennial-aged undergraduate students (N = 649) in Greece, using an adapted version of the Lyons Work Value Survey. Our results show that millennial-aged Greeks place most importance on intrinsic and social aspects of work, and less importance on extrinsic and prestige values. We statistically compare our results to those of published studies of millennial-aged respondents from other countries and find that Greek respondents hold a unique work value profile, although they demonstrate some similarities to counterparts in other countries. Our findings do not clearly support the notion of a ‘global youth generation’, as young people in various countries hold different work value priorities. This suggests that employers seeking to recruit, engage and retain young workers internationally must tailor their offerings to the specific cultural context.