Trade policy reform and international trade tax revenue in Uganda

This paper contributes to the literature on the relationship between tariff reform and customs tax revenue by explicitly capturing the institutional features of decision making in the econometric modeling. The results show that exchange rate depreciation has had pass through effects to the domestic market price of imports which reduces trade tax revenue to GDP ratio in the long run, though it increases trade tax revenue in the short term. There are also seasonal patterns in the short term trade tax payment. The results point to some scope to harness the benefits associated with trade policy reform without having to worry a lot about its effects on trade (and overall) tax revenue. In fact, it would be possible to realise modest increases in trade tax revenue if the exemption regime were to be reviewed and if there was capacity to contain the disruptive impact of sharp exchange rate depreciations.     

Total factor productivity growth in Uganda’s telecommunications industry

The telecommunication sector is usually thought to be characterized by high productivity growth rates arising from increasing returns to scale. The actual productivity patterns in the sector, however, need to be empirically determined. A panel data set was assembled and a common set of input and output indicators was constructed to support the estimation of the Malmquist Total Factor Productivity index via input-oriented Data Envelopment Analysis. A general specification encompassing all available input and output data was employed to obtain the average total factor productivity changes for the sector. Over the study period, there was total factor productivity growth in Uganda’s telecommunications industry, which was mainly due to technical or technological progress as opposed to technical efficiency. These results indicate the existence of a potential for tariff reduction via the X-factor in the price cap formula.