Evolutionary competition between prediction rules and the emergence of business cycles within Metzler’s inventory model

We revise Metzler??s well-known inventory model by developing a framework in which producers can either apply a simple but cheap extrapolative or a more sophisticated but expensive regressive forecasting rule to predict future sales. Producers are boundedly rational in the sense that they tend to select forecasting rules with a high evolutionary fitness. Using a mixture of analytical and numerical tools, we attempt to describe the characteristics of our model??s dynamical system. Our results suggest that the evolutionary competition between heterogeneous predictors may lead to irregular fluctuations in economic activity.     

Southeast Asian capitalism: History,institutions, states,and firms

This paper examines the structures of capitalism in Southeast Asia. Following the lead of Gordon Redding and others, it argues that parallel to varieties of capitalism elsewhere, there are distinctive features to the Southeast Asian business system, but that institutions play a relatively large role compared to firm specific resources or industry structures. Historically, with the exception of Thailand all the countries in the region are former colonies. All including Thailand share a distinctive style of nationalism, and partly as a result of this, all are governed by states that claim to be strong and lay wide claims but whose capacities are low. Typical features of the region, particularly the roles of large business groups and the Chinese minority, also can be interpreted as a result of this history. One of the outcomes of the analysis is an extension of the varieties of capitalism approach along the dimensions of state capacity and state direction, and of the approach to the internationalizing firm along the dimensions of dynamic capacity and control of subsidiaries. A further outcome is a questioning of the traditional picture of indigenous Southeast Asian business people as lacking in entrepreneurial skills, or more broadly of Southeast Asian nations as lacking in entrepreneurial values. Rather, the past history of these countries has resulted in a set of structures that militate against successful entrepreneurial activity.

Climate Change and Asset Prices: Are Corporate Carbon Disclosure and Performance Priced Appropriately?

This paper empirically assesses the relevance of information on corporate climate change disclosure and performance to asset prices, and discusses whether this information is priced appropriately. Findings indicate that corporate disclosures of quantitative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and, to a lesser extent, carbon performance are value relevant. We use hand‐collected information on quantitative GHG emissions for 433 European companies and build portfolios based on GHG disclosure and performance. We regress portfolios on a standard four factor model extended for industry effects over the years 2005 to 2009. Results show that investors achieved abnormal risk‐adjusted returns of up to 13.05% annually by exploiting inefficiently priced positive effects of (complete) GHG emissions disclosure and good corporate climate change performance in terms of GHG efficiency. Results imply that, firstly, information costs involved in carbon disclosure and management do not present a burden on corporate financial resources. Secondly, investors should not neglect carbon disclosure and performance when making investment decisions. Thirdly, during the period analysed, financial markets were inefficient in pricing publicly available information on carbon disclosure and performance. Mandatory and standardised information on carbon performance would consequently not only increase market efficiency but result in better allocation of capital within the real economy.     

Libor Market Models versus Swap Market Models for Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives: An Empirical Analysis

We empirically compare Libor and Swap Market Models for thepricing of interest rate derivatives, using panel data on pricesof US caplets and swaptions. A Libor Market Model can directlybe calibrated to observed prices of caplets, whereas a SwapMarket Model is calibrated to a certain set of swaption prices.For both models we analyze how well they price caplets and swaptionsthat were not used for calibration. We show that the Libor MarketModel in general leads to better prediction of derivative pricesthat were not used for calibration than the Swap Market Model.Also, we find that Market Models with a declining volatilityfunction give much better pricing results than a specificationwith a constant volatility function. Finally, we find that modelsthat arechosen to exactly match certain derivative prices areoverfitted; more parsimonious models lead to better predictionsfor derivative prices that were not used for calibration. JELClassification: G12, G13, E43.