Evaluating innovation policies: The German experience

Until recently, evaluations of technology policy were rare in the Federal Republic of Germany. Activities of this type on a larger scale were not started until the early eighties. Most of the evaluations performed concerned government incentives for small and medium-sized enterprises (SME). The main areas of research and development (R & D) and innovation promotion in small and medium-sized firms are the improvement of the capability and propensity to do in-house R & D, intensified cooperation in R & D between industrial firms and research establishments, the provision of more venture capital, and improved technology transfer. The underlying assumption is that these firms have bottlenecks, in particular in financing, in the personnel sector, and in obtaining information. A number of the existing support programs has meanwhile been investigated; the results of these investigations are covered in this paper. Initially, the underlying concept of impact analysis is outlined. Next, examples are presented of evaluations of general R & D funding measures, of grants for specific projects, of the debate about the most suitable instruments of promoting R & D in SME, and of technology transfer. Finally, some implications arising from the results of these analyses for technology policy in the Federal Republic of Germany are discussed.     

Investor and price response to patterns in earnings surprises

As part of their model to explain short-term positive and long-term negative auto-correlation in stock returns, Barberis, Shleifer, and Vishny [1998. A model of investor sentiment. Journal of Finance 49, 307–345] suggest that investors may extrapolate trends in earnings performance. I test this portion of their model by examining investor trading patterns in firms that experience consecutive same-sign earnings surprises. Consistent with their model, after controlling for regularities in trading activity, I find that the net buying of small investors increases with the number of consecutive positive earnings surprises. I further find that purchasing activity of small investors subsequent to consecutive positive surprises is significantly negatively correlated with returns throughout the remainder of the year. These results suggest that such investors are not simply rationally updating after public news announcements. My results are robust to controlling for auto-correlation in earnings surprises.     

Overall economic planning in Brazil

In Brazil economic policy planning, with its beginning in the early fifties, has been undertaken for a relatively long period already. Just this fact makes it possible to analyse development, contents, significance, limitations, and chances of this planning and its realisation over a prolonged period.     

The Effects Of New Technologies On Employment

This paper is a contribution to the analysis of the relationship between technical change, economic development and employment. It forms part of a larger study of technical change and employment in Germany, encompassing a macroeconomic model of income circulation, a disaggregated econometric model of the sectoral differences of the effects of new technologies, and an input-output analysis of the direct and indirect effects of technological change. The present paper concentrates on examining the relationships between users and producers, the intersectoral technology flow matrix, and its links with the disaggregated demand model for analysing the influence of different technology variables on labour demand.     

Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions Estimated Using Professional Forecasts

We propose a Bayesian shrinkage approach for vector autoregressions (VARs) that uses short‐term survey forecasts as an additional source of information about model parameters. In particular, we augment the vector of dependent variables by their survey nowcasts, and claim that each variable modelled in the VAR and its nowcast are likely to depend in a similar way on the lagged dependent variables. In an application to macroeconomic data, we find that the forecasts obtained from a VAR fitted by our new shrinkage approach typically yield smaller mean squared forecast errors than the forecasts obtained from a range of benchmark methods. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes in the strategic management of technology: results of a global benchmarking study

This contribution analyses main changes in the strategic management of technology of the world's most technology-intensive companies from western Europe, North America and Japan. The results presented here are based on a literature review and a survey which show the following main results: first, R&D and technology have become key cornerstones of corporate and business strategy. Second, there is a growing tendency to acquire technology from external sources throughout the sample. Third, internationalization of R&D plays a very important role in the strategies of the large companies investigated and the data shows that it will certainly gain further momentum. However, internationalization of R&D is confined to the Triad regions and is not 'global'. Based on our analysis, cornerstones of a future generation of R&D/technology management are developed.     

The effect of regulatory scrutiny: Asymmetric cost pass-through in power wholesale and its end

We find an asymmetric pass-through of European emission allowance (EUA) prices to wholesale electricity prices in Germany and show that this asymmetry disappeared in response to a report on investigations by the competition authority. The asymmetric pricing pattern, however, was not detected at the time of the report, nor had it been part of the investigations. Our results therefore provide evidence for the deterring effect of regulatory monitoring on firms which exhibit non-competitive pricing behavior. We do not find any asymmetric pass-through of EUA prices in recent years. Several robustness checks support our results.