Simulating the Evolution of the Implied Distribution

Motivated by the implied stochastic volatility literature (Britten–Jones and Neuberger, forthcoming; Derman and Kani, 1997; Ledoit and Santa–Clara, 1998) this paper proposes a new and general method for constructing smile–consistent stochastic volatility models. The method is developed by recognising that option pricing and hedging can be accomplished via the simulation of the implied risk neutral distribution. We devise an algorithm for the simulation of the implied distribution, when the first two moments change over time. The algorithm can be implemented easily, and it is based on an economic interpretation of the concept of mixture of distributions. It can also be generalised to cases where more complicated forms for the mixture are assumed.     

Understanding the Economic Factors Influencing Farm Policy Preferences

A survey conducted in Mississippi, Texas, Indiana, and Nebraska elicited producers' preferences for various farm policy changes. This permitted examination of the diversity of preferences that single-state studies have not allowed. Five policy choices, including deficiency payments, loan programs, crop insurance, export programs, and disaster payments were examined. Logit model results predicting producer preferences for each of the five dichotomous policy choices are reported. Explanatory variables based on expected utility theory such as risk aversion, price and yield variability, and price–yield correlation are significant in various models.     

Consumer safety in Greece: An analysis of the Consumer Protection Act 1991

In September 1991 the Greek Consumer Protection Act No. 1961 was enacted. Chapter 2 of this Act establishes a legal framework for product safety. This framework has the dual aim of securing deregulation in the Greek market while maintaining effective consumer protection. This paper analyses the main features of this framework and demonstrates its inadequacies. It also investigates the extent to which these inadequacies could jeopardise an effective protection of consumers' interests. The paper concludes by emphasising that effective protection of consumers can only be achieved by supporting the general safety requirement with adequate accident-surveillance systems, mechanisms for investigation of risks, unambiguous risk-assessment criteria, creation of a comprehensive set of supporting standards that offer a high level of protection, effective control of the safety of products by the authorities, and real possibilities for consumer organisations to participate in the whole process.

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Zusammenfassung Die Sicherheit des Verbrauchers in Griechenland: eine Analyse des Verbraucherschutzgesetzes von 1991 Im September 1991 trat das griechische Verbraucherschutzgesetz in Kraft. Kapitel 2 des Gesetzes führt einen rechtlichen Rahmen für die Sicherheit von Produkten ein. Dieser Rahmen verfolgt das Ziel der Deregulierung auf dem griechischen Markt bei zugleich wirksamem Verbraucherschutz. Der Beitrag analysiert die wesentlichen Aspekte dieses Rahmens und stellt seine Schwächen dar. Er prüft, inwieweit diese Schwächen einem wirksamen Verbraucherschutz entgegenstehen können, und hebt hervor, da\ wirksamer Verbraucherschutz nur durch Stärkung der allgemeinen Sicherheitsbestimmungen erreicht werden kann. Dafür sind erforderlich ein angemessenes Unfallüberwachungssystem, Regelungen für die Untersuchung von Risiken, eindeutige Kriterien für die Bewertung von Risiken, die Entwicklung umfassender Kriterien zur Gewährleistung eines hohen Schutzniveaus, die wirksame Kontrolle der Produktsicherheit durch die Behörden, sowie für die Verbraucherorganisationen die faktische Mitwirkungsmöglichkeit an der gesamten Entwicklung.

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George Argiros, a member of the Athens Bar Association, is at present researching in the field of EC Law and Consumer Protection at the University of Leicester, Faculty of Law, Leicester LE1 7RH, U.K.     

Theological ethics and business ethics

Philosophers have constituted business ethics as a field by providing a systematic overview that interrelates its problems and concepts and that supplies the basis for building on attained results. Is there a properly theological task in business ethics? The religious/theological literature on business ethics falls into four classes: (1) the application of religious morality to business practices; (2) the use of encyclical teachings about capitalism; (3) the interpretation of business relations in agapa-istic terms; and (4) the critique of business from a liberation theological point of view. Theologians have not adequately addressed the questions of whether there are particular theological tasks in the field as they define it, and whether, if they define it, the theological definition is different from the philosophical.     

Contract modifications and the basis behavior of live cattle futures

The purpose of this study was to assess the basis behavior of the Live Cattle Futures contract at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) before and after the 1995 contract changes. Additionally, an alternative method of basis calculation utilizing weighted mean futures prices versus settlement futures prices was compared to determine which method provides a better representation of the basis level. Within a regression model with heteroskedascity error framework, we found that the level of nearby basis in the period after June 1995 has shifted lower and the average monthly open interest of net commercial long positions has substantially increased after the contract modifications. These empirical results are consistent with the notion that more long activity entered the market in response to the contract modifications. Additionally, an alternative (new) measure of basis calculation (cash price minus weighted mean futures price) produced similar results to two other commonly used measures. In conclusion, the 1995 contract changes have neither increased nor decreased the volatility of live cattle basis. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:557–590, 2004     

CATALOG RETAILER IN‐STOCK PERFORMANCE: AN ASSESSMENT OF CUSTOMER SERVICE LEVELS

The purpose of this article is to study the level of “in‐stock” customer service performance being offered in the catalog channel of distribution. The article provides benchmark information for the catalog industry. More importantly, the article serves as one test of the effectiveness of the modern supply chain, where the expectation is for near perfect orders. Customer service levels are studied by using an empirical observation methodology in which catalog retailer's in‐stock performance was measured. Comparisons are made across item type, season, retailer type, and days from catalog receipt. Overall, items were out‐of‐stock during 15.9% of all checkpoints, compared to an 11.8% stock‐out rate in an earlier study of bricks and mortar retailers.