Superexponential long-term trends in information technology

Moore's Law has created a popular perception of exponential progress in information technology. But is the progress of IT really exponential? In this paper we examine long time series of data documenting progress in information technology gathered by [1]. We analyze six different historical trends of progress for several technologies grouped into the following three functional tasks: information storage, information transportation (bandwidth), and information transformation (speed of computation). Five of the six datasets extend back to the nineteenth century. We perform statistical analyses and show that in all six cases one can reject the exponential hypothesis at statistically significant levels. In contrast, one cannot reject the hypothesis of superexponential growth with decreasing doubling times. This raises questions about whether past trends in the improvement of information technology are sustainable.     

Unemployment assistance in Hungary

Low outflow rates from unemployment and cuts in benefit entitlement periods resulted in sharp reductions in the coverage by Unemployment Insurance of the unemployed stock in Central and Eastern European countries during the 1990s. From mid-1994 in Hungary the most common benefit received by the registered unemployed stock is means-tested Unemployment Assistance (UA) but so far very little is known about its receipt. In the paper, using microdata from the unemployment register we investigate the operation of the UA scheme in Hungary, including the benefit levels, the characteristics of benefit recipients and the determinants of flows to and from receipt.     

“My Avatar and Her Beloved Possession”: Characteristics of Attachment to Virtual Objects

Given the increasing emphasis on online consumption in our digital era, the current study aimed to explore the avatar–self relationship in association with the concept of product attachment. Through constructing their own avatars and selecting certain virtual possessions for them, participants in the sample were able to represent different elements of their identities to be manifested in their embodied virtual presence. Certain attributes and emotions characterizing both the real as well as the virtual existence of participants appeared to exert important influences. Additional gender differences emerged, in that males were more likely to represent their possible and hidden self‐aspects, and focus on the functional meaning of virtual products, while females were more likely to reveal their ideal selves, and attach symbolic meaning to their virtual possessions. For female participants, the role of experimentation emerged as an important construct, with their avatars often reflecting upon their ambivalence toward perceived social norms and societal expectations. Implications for scholars and practitioners are discussed.     

Asymptotic inference for a one-dimensional simultaneous autoregressive model

A nonstationary simultaneous autoregressive model \({X^{(n)}_k=\alpha \Big(X^{(n)}_{k-1}+X^{(n)}_{k+1}\Big)+\varepsilon_k, k=1, 2, \ldots , n-1}\), is investigated, where \({X^{(n)}_0}\) and \({X^{(n)}_n}\) are given random variables. It is shown that in the unstable case α = 1/2 the least squares estimator of the autoregressive parameter converges to a functional of a standard Wiener process with a rate of convergence n ², while in the stable situation |α| < 1/2 the estimator is biased but asymptotically normal with a rate n ^1/2.     

Cereal Technology Interventions for the West African Semi-Arid Tropics

One of the regions of most concern in Sub-Saharan Africa is the geographical area of the West African semi-arid tropics (WASAT) where there has been little impact from the green revolution and most of the region suffers from inadequate and irregular rainfall and low fertility soils. Decreasing per-capita food production trends and 2-3% per-year population growth trends have convinced some to adopt a Malthusian perspective about the future of the WASAT. This paper evaluates the prospects of agricultural technologies and farm management practices that are currently proposed for the WASAT cereal farming system. The technologies are assessed with respect to their agronomic and economic feasibility, risk and their fit within the farming systems. They are ranked as to their feasibility of adoption by farmers in the short, intermediate and long run. The findings suggest that several agricultural technologies are feasible for use in the short run provided that they are used as a package. The complexity and initial high financial and human capital requirements, however, often prohibit farmers from adopting the total package simultaneously. A stepwise approach to adoption is difficult since separate adoption results in lower profitability and higher risk levels. Government policy intervention may be necessary to enable farmers to adopt single technologies en route to total package adoption.     

The tourist experience of domestic VFR travellers: the case of Hungary

Visiting friends and relatives (VFR) is the main driver of domestic travel in many countries. This study is one of the first to analyse VFR travel from a perspective of tourist experience. This study aims to investigate the complex dynamics behind VFR-related travel, especially in aspects of trip activities and tourist experience formation. Based on a survey (N?=?879) examining domestic VFR travellers’ trip activities in Hungary, the paper discusses the formation of a tourist experience in context of short-haul domestic VFR travel, especially the role of influencing factors. The results reveal differences between the segments with trip motivation of visiting friends (VF) and visiting relatives (VR) – the two main types of VFR tourists. It was found that independent variables such as VF, staying for longer and participating in leisure and tourism-type activities have a positive effect on tourist experience evolvement; however, factors such as VR, being rather passive during such a visit and focusing on social acts and bonding negatively affect the formulation of a tourist experience. The paper’s novelty and uniqueness lies in applying a new perspective of analysing and discussing VFR travel: the theoretical concept of tourist experience formation.     

The Increasing Importance of Geoeconomics in Power Rivalries in the Twenty-First Century

Relations between states in the post-Cold War period have been shaped by an increased economic competition including ‘non-market’ factors such as intelligence sharing between state agencies and private businesses, successful economic diplomacy and different techniques to influence and manipulate non-governmental organisations to weaken an economic adversary, among other things. The considerable influence of these non-market factors illustrates the limits of the liberal economic theories that emphasise the dominant role of market forces. Geoeconomics is an interdisciplinary analysis that includes geopolitical factors, economic intelligence, strategic analysis and foresight and has the objective to provide a tool for states and businesses to develop and implement successful strategies to conquer markets, and protect strategic segments of the domestic economy, among other things. This article argues about the growing significance of geoeconomics in contemporary power rivalries, presents some strategic aspects of the role of state in the establishment and coordination of a national geoeconomic disposition, and highlights briefly the importance of the strategic management of information to support geoeconomic strategies. Some arguments of the article ‘Geoeconomic Analysis and the Limits of Critical Geopolitics: A New Engagement with Edward Luttwak’ are briefly discussed as well.     

ECONOMIC COSTS AND RETURNS FROM CROP DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH: THE CASE OF RAPESEED BREEDING IN CANADA

Public and private investment in Research and Development are an important source of economic growth. This article documents the high rate of return to society from investment in agricultural research. The analysis took the form of estimating the gains in producer and consumer surplus from research that improved rapeseed yield in western Canada and related these gains to research expenditures by calculating an internal rate of return. The distribution of the return between consumers and producers were estimated. The internal rate of return was found to be 101 percent and indicates an underinvestment in this type of research. Of the total net benefits, consumers captured 53 percent and producers 47 percent.
L'argent public et prive investi dans la recherche et le développement est une source importante de croissance économique. Le présent article fournit une documentation sur le taux élvé des profits que rapportent à la société les investissements dans la recherche en agriculture. Notre analyse a pris la forme d'une estimation des gains en surplus réalisés par le producteur et le consommateur, à la suite de recherches améliorant le rendement de la semence du colza dans l'ouest canadien, puis nous avons établi un rapport entre ces gains et les dépenses pour la recherche en calculant un taux de profits internes. Nous avons évalué la répartition des profits entre consommateurs et producteurs. Le taux des profits internes s'est avéré être de 101 pour cent, et cela signifie un sous-investissement dans ce type de recherche. Les consommateurs ont réalisé 53 pour cent du total des bénéficies nets, alors que les producteurs en ont récupéré 47 pour cent. 1928 ems     

Revisiting the theory of production competence: Extensions and cross-validations

This paper examines a widely cited work in operations management, the theory of production competence, advanced initially by Cleveland, Schroeder, and Anderson (CSA). This intuitively appealing proposition asserts that production competence leads to improved business performance. However, CSA's empirical work has been criticized by Vickery and her collaborators and by Safizadeh, Ritzman, and Mallick (SRM). Moreover, SRM's own empirical work suggested that the CSA proposition only holds for batch processes. Using data from two large studies, we avoid the problems that plagued CSA's analysis, improve on their result, and call into question the SRM finding that restricts that result to batch operations.