Stabilization, adjustment, and the poor

This paper attempts to survey the recent literature on the impact of stabilization and adjustment programs upon the poor and to consider some of the key issues in the context of a particular equity-oriented low-income country. Tanzania. After looking at some of the approaches of earlier studies, this paper analyzes the effects of restructuring policies, macroeconomic restraint, and strategic policy change. The author then reviews available evidence on the recent experience of Tanzania with external shock, efforts at stabilization, and relations with the IMF.In conclusion, the author argues that in order to better understand their impact on poverty we need more detailed analyses of specific countries' experience with different kinds of macroeconomic imbalance and different short- to medium-term policy responses. However, he does indicate with some certainty that when equivalent external blows impact upon very low-income countries, there must be a presumption that, other things being equal (including the distribution of income), the proportion of households and people pushed over the line into “absolute poverty” will be greater than in middle-income countries. The international community should provide external finance to aid these low-income countries in limiting the negative impact on the poorest.     

Applied geography in a Third World setting: A research challenge

This paper addresses the particular methodological questions that arise when conducting geographic studies of tourism in the third world. The research environment has both favorable and unfavorable aspects. On the one hand, the scope and opportunity for worthwhile research are almost unlimited. On the other hand, deficiences in background information, in the availability of suitable personnel, and in the economic and social infrastructure can be serious drawbacks to research into human endeavors. The paper draws particular attention to the pitfalls awaiting researchers who are themselves unfamiliar with third world conditions and cultures. A case study is presented, which involves the preparation and undertaking of research into domestic tourism in Nigeria. Together with a local collaborator, the author selected an appropriate topic and methodology, discovering in the process of consultation and questionnaire construction that his perceptions based on foreign experience were sometimes irrelevant to the conditions in Nigeria. The conclusion drawn from this experience is that research techniques imported to the third world from developed countries may need modification before they can be usefully applied.     

The Mystery of the Missing Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism

The absence of a formal international regulatory mechanism tofacilitate sovereign debt restructuring has long been recognizedas a most serious gap in the architecture of global finance.Why has it proven so difficult to create such a sovereign debtrestructuring mechanism (SDRM) at the international level? Politicaleconomists have devoted relatively little scholarly attentionto this question. This paper attempts to begin to fill thisgap in the literature by examining four failed initiatives tocreate a SDRM over the past century. In place of a realist orstructural Marxist account, the paper puts forward a more contingentexplanation for these failures that highlights three distinctpolitical problems that must be overcome in the constructionof a SDRM: (1) collective action problems on both the side ofsovereign debtors and that of private foreign creditors; (2)basic distributional conflicts embodied in any debt restructuringeffort; and (3) the uncertain behavior of the private creditors'home states.     

Freedom and management in primary commodity markets: US imports from developing countries

New US data are employed to ascertain the share which intra-firm transactions make up of US primary commodity imports. This share is frequently very high and, for many commodities, well above the average for total US imports. An attempt to explain divergences between intra-firm prices and average prices by differential tax rates and foreign exchange controls yielded only weak results in the cases of bananas, iron ore, rubber and tea but strong ones in that of coffee. Analysis of transfer pricing behaviour is clearly very important in many commodity markets but requires more data than could here be brought to bear.     

Transnational enterprises in the manufacturing sector of the less developed countries

Transnational enterprises continue to invest in manufacturing in the less developed countries. Even where they do not, less developed countries are likely to deal with them in the acquisition of technology or markets. The prices for what transnationals sell are not immutable but are the result of bargaining. One can expect more vigorous and more effective bargaining by host countries in the manufacturing, as well as the more frequently discussed resource, sector in future. Success will vary over industries and over time but is least likely in export-oriented manufacturing.     

Sectoral Interests and Global Money: Renminbi, Dollars and the Domestic Foundations of International Currency Policy

In deciding whether to support an international role of their country’s currency, national policymakers are often influenced by lobbying from domestic sectoral groups. While these groups will be consistently more interested in some implications of international currency issuance than others, their specific preferences are likely to be highly context specific. Looking at the cases of the United States and China, we anticipate that domestic sectoral lobbying is unlikely to pressure either the US government to defend the dollar’s international role vigorously or the Chinese government to internationalize the renminbi fully. From this domestic sectoral perspective, the future looks to be characterized by reluctant monetary leaders rather than increasingly aggressive currency competition between the United States and China.