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1.
Hardle Wolfgang; Herwartz Helmut; Spokoiny Vladimir 《The Journal of Financial Econometrics》2003,1(1):55-95
Price variations at speculative markets exhibit positive autocorrelationand cross correlation. Due to large parameter spaces necessaryfor joint modeling of variances and covariances, multivariateparametric volatility models become easily intractable in practice.We propose an adaptive procedure that identifies periods ofsecond-order homogeneity for each moment in time. To overcomethe high dimensionality of the problem we transform the multivariateseries into a set of univariate processes. We discuss thoroughlythe implementation of the adaptive technique. Theoretical andMonte Carlo results are given. We provide two applications ofthe new method. For a bivariate exchange rate series we comparethe multivariate GARCH approach with our method and find thelatter to be more in line with the underlying assumption ofindependently distributed innovations. Analyzing a 23-dimensionalvector of asset returns we underscore the case for adaptivemodeling in high-dimensional systems. 相似文献
2.
Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We employ panel data as well as country-specific models to uncover empirically the determinants of current account imbalances.
We find evidence of slope heterogeneity likely rendering the fixed-effect estimator inconsistent. Mean group estimation is
followed to overcome the latter difficulty. Both estimation techniques are evaluated by means of in- and out-of-sample criteria.
The mean group estimator outperforms the fixed-effect approach and, moreover, only three economic variables are found to impact
on the current account balance significantly. These are the government budget balance, the domestic output gap and the changes
of the terms of trade. We finally propose a parsimonious dynamic model of the current account, including only these variables
and illustrate that it has similar predictive accuracy as country-specific benchmark models.
JEL no. F32, C23, C53 相似文献
3.
4.
We investigate the role of price advertising in a market where consumers are imperfectly informed about prices. We consider a monopolist whose demand depends on price and advertising expenditure. This demand function is derived from optimizing behavior of consumers. Uninformed consumers may pay a cost to visit the seller and obtain price information. Advertising enables the monopolist to increase the number of informed consumers. In equilibrium the uninformed consumers form rational price expectations, and the seller necessarily adopts a random pricing and advertising strategy. 相似文献
5.
VARMA (vector autoregressive moving average) processes are proposed for modelling cointegrated variables. For this purpose the echelon form is combined with the error correction form. Procedures for estimating the Kronecker indices which characterize the echelon form and for specifying the cointegration rank are discussed. The asymptotic distribution of the coefficient estimators is given. An example based o n US macroeconomic data illustrates the procedure and demonstrates its feasibility in practice. 相似文献
6.
To halt the decline of biodiversity in New Zealand, the government has formulated a strategy of maintaining and restoring a full range of remaining natural habitats to a healthy functioning state. Many indigenous forest remnants exist on private land, and these could be utilised to increase biodiversity. Resources for conservation of forest remnants are limited, so they must be used wisely to deliver the greatest possible biodiversity gain. This paper presents a rapid method for valuing the biodiversity of a region's indigenous forest remnants to help prioritise conservation resources. The region is divided into environmentally distinct areas called land environments. A detailed land-cover map is derived from satellite imagery and used to estimate the proportion of natural habitats remaining in each land environment; from this the biodiversity value of any forest remnant may be calculated. The method is rapid and does not require detailed biodiversity information. When combined with conservation costs, it may be used to create a priority list of forest remnants for conservation. The Manawatu/Wanganui region of New Zealand is used as a case study to demonstrate the method. 相似文献
7.
This study analyses the effect of trade and migration on wages and labour marketmobility. We estimate wage growth equations and a multinomial logit mobilityequation on an individual data set ranging from 1991 to 1994. We find substantialdifferences in the reactions of white and blue-collar workers wages and mobilityto trade and migration. In Austria exports have a positive and imports a negativeimpact on wage growth only for blue-collar workers. Migrants also reduce onlyblue-collar workers wage growth. Our results indicate that higher imports and aninflow of migrants reduce sectoral mobility of all types workers. The risk of beingout of work by contrast is increased by migration and imports only for blue-collarworkers, but reduced by exports for all types of workers. In general our results suggestenlargement of the EU would have only small effects on the Austrian labour market. 相似文献
8.
This article discusses various approaches to pricing double‐trigger reinsurance contracts—a new type of contract that has emerged in the area of ‘‘alternative risk transfer.’’ The potential coverage from this type of contract depends on both underwriting and financial risk. We determine the reinsurer's reservation price if it wants to retain the firm's same safety level after signing the contract, in which case the contract typically must be backed by large amounts of equity capital (if equity capital is the risk management measure to be taken). We contrast the financial insurance pricing models with an actuarial pricing model that has as its objective no lessening of the reinsurance company's expected profits and no worsening of its safety level. We show that actuarial pricing can lead the reinsurer into a trap that results in the failure to close reinsurance contracts that would have a positive net present value because typical actuarial pricing dictates the type of risk management measure that must be taken, namely, the insertion of additional capital. Additionally, this type of pricing structure forces the reinsurance buyer to provide this safety capital as a debtholder. Finally, we discuss conditions leading to a market for double‐trigger reinsurance contracts. 相似文献
9.
Praxis / MagazinNews
Who is Who 相似文献10.
In most OECD countries, the wage gap between men and women has narrowed during the past two decades. Developments of the last
20 years, e.g., increased labour market attachment of women or the introduction of equal pay laws, may have reduced the gender
wage gap. We investigate the extent, persistence, and socio-economic determinants of the gender wage gap in Austria, for the
years 1983 and 1997. Using wage decomposition techniques, we find that the average gender wage gap was almost as high in 1997
as it was in 1983. Not accounting for differences, the gender wage gap dropped from 25.5 to 23.3% of men’s wages. Taking observable
differences between men and women into account, we estimate that the mean gender wage gap that cannot be explained, i.e.,
discrimination against women, dropped from 17 to 14% of men’s wages. A decomposition of the gender wage gap over time indicates
that both returns to human capital and less discrimination were responsible for the narrowing of the gender wage gap.
相似文献
Christine ZulehnerEmail: |