Comparative costs and conservation of wild species in situ, e.g. orangutans

The extent to which conservation is feasible is constrained by budgets and the financial sacrifice stakeholders are willing to bear. Therefore a possible objective for conserving a species is to minimise the cost of achieving that stated aim. For example, if a minimum viable population (MVP) of a species is to be conserved, the size and type of habitats reserved for this could be selected to minimise cost. This requires consideration of the comparative (relative) opportunity costs of reserving different land types for conservation. A general model is developed to demonstrate this and is applied to the case of the orangutan. In the ecological literature, recommendations for reserving different types of land for conservation have been based on comparisons of either the absolute economic returns they generate if converted to commercial use or on differences in the density of a species they support. These approaches are shown to be deficient because they ignore relative trade-offs between species population and economic conversion gains at alternative sites. The proposed model is illustrated for orangutan conservation.     

Using online opinion leaders to promote the hedonic and utilitarian value of products and services

Research and applied evidence suggest that online opinion leaders are important promoters of products and services. However, managers and firms need to choose which opinion leaders to work with and better understand how to collaborate with those leaders to promote different types of products and services. Online opinion leaders should be used to promote the experiential (hedonic) and functional (utilitarian) value of products and services over different online forums. In this article, we describe how online opinion leaders can serve appeal leadership functions, serve knowledge leadership functions, and take multiple roles (e.g., experts, celebrities, micro-celebrities, micro-influencers, early adopters, market mavens, enthusiasts). We then present a five-stage planning process designed to guide partnerships with online opinion leaders. Specific steps in the process include: planning (setting the objectives of the campaign and the role of online opinion leaders), recognition (identifying influential and relevant online opinion leaders), alignment (matching online opinion leaders and online forums with the products or services promoted), motivation (rewarding online opinion leaders in a way that aligns with their social role), and coordination (negotiating, monitoring, and supporting the influence of the online opinion leaders).     

Examining the credibility of macroeconomic forecasts: Null of cointegration approach

In this study we examine the accuracy of forecasts of a select group of major macroeconomic variables, representing both the real and the financial sector of the economy. The theoretical foundations are similar to the one used to study exchange rate expectations, i.e. a verification of consistency and rationality in forecast formation. The empirical measure of accuracy is consistency in the expectation formation process, a precursor to rational forecasts. Here we examine the cointegration properties of the actual and forecast series (at multiple horizons) using the modern null of cointegration approach. A very reliable and continuos data set, the ASA-NBER survey is used. We find evidence of short (long) term expectational consistency (inconsistency) i.e. bandwagon effects and a mean reversion tendency in case of real variables, while the forecasts of financial variables are inconsistent across all forecast horizons.     

The Fisher hypothesis: examining the Canadian experience

In this study the validity of the Fisher hypothesis is investigated for Canada under both fixed and floating exchange rate regimes. An empirically distinction is drawn between the weak and strong form of the Fisher hypothesis. The Johansen-Juselius (JJ) multivariate cointegration methodology is applied to test the weak form while the Phillips–Hansen fully modified ordinary least squares (FM-OLS) technique is used for the strong form hypothesis. The caninical correlations (JJ) methodology has the smallest bias and dispersion and hence is the best among the alternative testing procedures available. The FM-OLS procedure, on the other hand, allows for an unrestricted cointegration test correcting for both endogeneity in the data and asymptotic bias in the coefficient estimates. The Fisher hypothesis is soundly rejected.     

Do stock returns hedge inflation at long horizons?

We investigate the long-horizon relationship between market returns and inflation in the United States. Conventional tests for long horizon predictability may reject the null too frequently when the predictor variable is highly persistent and endogenous and there are overlapping observations. We use a recently developed econometric technique designed to overcome these problems. We find little to no evidence that securities are able to hedge inflation.     

GNP forecasts: How credible are they? A sequential test of consistency and rationality

In this study we examine the accuracy in the expectation formation process of a major macroeconomic forecast variable, namely the Gross National Product (GNP). The theoretical foundations are similar to the one used to study exchange rate expectations, i.e. a verification of consistency and rationality in forecast formation. A very reliable and continuos data set, the ASA-NBER survey is used. The Engle-Granger two step cointegration methodology and the Johansen-Juselius canonical correlation's (which has the smallest bias and dispersion) is applied to examine consistency in the gross national product expectation formation process. Our results support (reject) consistency at the short (long) forecast horizon. We then sequentially test for weak and strong form rationality using the Phillips-Hansen fully modified ordinary least squares procedure. This allows for an unrestricted cointegration test correcting for both endogeneity in the data and asymtotic bias in the coefficient estimates. Weak (strong) form rationality is upheld (rejected). This is in line with the literature which rejects orthogonality, but partially supports expectational rationality.     

Applying Behavioural Theory to the Challenge of Sustainable Development: Using Hairdressers as Diffusers of More Sustainable Hair-Care Practices

The challenges presented by sustainable development are broadly accepted, yet resource use increases unabated. It is increasingly acknowledged that while technical solutions may play a part, a key issue is behaviour change. In response to this, there has been a plethora of studies into how behaviour change can be enabled, predominantly from psychological and sociological perspectives. This has resulted in a substantial body of knowledge into the factors that drive behaviour change and how they can be manipulated to achieve desired social goals. In this paper, we describe a study that draws on this body of knowledge to design an intervention to drive behaviour change across the hairdressing sector, and by the process of diffusion, across the vast social networks of this occupational group to influence domestic hair-care practices. The intervention was successful: hairdressers indicated positive intentions to adopt more sustainable practices within their salons and pass them onto their customers. The customer survey (N = 776) confirms this: customers surveyed after their hairdresser attended the Green-Salon-Makeover intervention were significantly more likely to report that environmental issues had been considered in their salon visit and that they themselves would consider such issues in their hair-care practices at home than customers who were surveyed before the intervention.     

A note on the foreign exchange market efficiency hypothesis

This paper examines the weak and strong forms of the foreign exchange market efficiency hypothesis (MEH) (as defined in the paper) using the recently available Harris-Inder null of cointegration procedure, which is powerful enough to distinguish between cointegration and near cointegration, and thus provide more robust results than conventional cointegration tests. Our results indicate that both forms of the MEH are rejected for all the major currencies of the European Economic Community (EEC). (JEL F310).