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Olivier Bargain Herwig Immervoll Andreas Peichl Sebastian Siegloch 《International Tax and Public Finance》2012,19(1):118-138
The distributional consequences of the recent economic crisis are still broadly unknown. While it is possible to speculate
which groups are likely to be hardest-hit, detailed distributional studies are still largely backward-looking due to a lack
of real-time microdata. This paper studies the distributional and fiscal implications of output changes in Germany 2008–2009,
using data available prior to the economic downturn. We first estimate labor demand on 12 years of detailed, administrative
matched employer-employee data. The distributional analysis is then conducted by transposing predicted employment effects
of actual output shocks to household-level microdata. A scenario in which labor demand adjustments occur at the intensive
margin (hour changes), close to the German experience, shows less severe effects on the income distribution compared to a
situation where adjustments take place through massive layoffs. Adjustments at the intensive margin are also preferable from
a fiscal point of view. In this context, we discuss the cushioning effect of the tax-benefit system and the conditions under
which German-style work-sharing policies can be successful in other countries. 相似文献
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This paper analyzes how inflation-induced erosions of nominally defined amounts built into relevant tax rules ("bracket creep") alter distributional and revenue-generating properties of income taxes and social insurance contributions. Using a multi-country tax-benefit model, it provides quantitative estimates for Germany, the Netherlands and the U.K. In the absence of automatic inflation adjustment mechanisms, effects on individual tax burdens can be substantial, even with low inflation. Bracket creep is found to reduce tax progressivity. At the same time, overall tax revenues increase. In terms of tax systems' equalizing capacities, which depend on both these factors, the second effect dominates: if tax systems were left unadjusted then inflation would lead to lower and slightly more equally distributed household incomes. However, existing inflation adjustment regimes in the Netherlands and the U.K. successfully prevent large tax burdens changes. 相似文献
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Immervoll Herwig; Levy Horacio; Lietz Christine; Mantovani Daniela; Sutherland Holly 《Cambridge Journal of Economics》2006,30(2):181-199
The authors use the European Union-wide taxbenefit model,EUROMOD, to establish baseline rates of relative poverty in1998 for each of the Member States and then explore their sensitivityto (a) an increase in unemployment, (b) real income growth and(c) an increase in earnings inequality. They find that povertyrates are sensitive to such macro-level changesbut that the sizeand in some cases the directionofthe effect varies across countries. If such indicators are tobe used in judging the effectiveness of social policies, itis important that differences in responsiveness are fully understood. 相似文献
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