On the forecastability of share prices on the Viennese stock exchange

In this paper the Viennese stock exchange data are analysed by using ARMA and GARCH technology. After using AIC and BIC for estimating the linear structure of the time series, to the resulting innovations a GARCH(1,1) model is fit. The resulting residuals are then tested for serial independence and constancy of its distribution to check whether the models are reasonable. Main result is that the residuals of this ARMA-GARCH(1,1)-model are reasonably iid (which is checked by BDS and classical independence tests) for index data and significantly less well-behaved for stock data. Second, there is considerable autocorrelation in the data (especially in the Viennese indices WBK and ATX) which can be exploited even with 1.25% transaction costs (which is checked by a posteriori analysis of a strategy which exploits an underlying time-varying AR(1) model), however, much higher profit can be made with 0.5% transaction costs. Furthermore, the same techniques are applied to US Standard & Poor 500 index and the results for both data sets are compared giving the result that the US-market looks much more mature than the Viennese one.Financial Support by the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, and the Fonds zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung, Vienna, Grant P 9176 is gratefully acknowledged. This paper is a slightly abbreviated version of the Research Report No. 135 by the same authors (see References), which contains many detailed plots of the results.     

Socially responsible consumption in Russia: Testing the theory of planned behavior and the moderating role of trust

This paper adopts a multilevel approach to explore how socially responsible consumer behavior (SRCB) is shaped by a combination of micro‐level psychological drivers and specifics of the institutional context in which the behavior is performed. The model first applies the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to test the effects of TPB‐based behavioral predictors on the SRCB. Broad‐scope trust in business (BST) is then applied to the model as a variable that characterizes quality of an informal institutional environment, hypothesizing that BST moderates the relationship between TPB‐based behavioral antecedents and SRCB. The paper is based on a survey of 466 Russian consumers. Data were collected by self‐administered questionnaires completed by students and alumni of a large public university in Moscow. Results show that BST moderates the effects of TPB‐based predictors on SRCB. This implies that consumers who believe that the business is overall trustworthy are more likely to take company’s corporate social responsibility (CSR) into account when making purchasing decisions. This study contributes to the multilevel research on SRCB and CSR and adds to the literature on public trust in business as a nascent area of study. Its findings are especially relevant for companies operating in low‐trust environments, including postsocialist economies.     

The Significance of CSF Among Enterprises in Latvia： An In-depth Analysis

The present research paper is dedicated to the in-depth analysis of the significance of critical-to-success factors （CSF） among enterprises in Latvia. The goal is to distinguish and find key success factors of Latvian companies who survived the economic crisis, which started in 2008, and executed the enabling objectives of the paper. Research methodology involves the analysis of the existing theoretical literature, in-depth interviews with the top management representatives of large Latvian business entities were interviewed by GFK （Custom Research Baltic agency） on behalf of the authors of the paper. It is found out that 10 largest industries for the big companies are： fuel retail and wholesale, energetics, food retail and wholesale, chemical products, logistics, metal processing, financial services, information technologies service and production, passenger transportation, and telecommunication services. For medium companies such industries are： food retail and wholesale, logistics, fuel retail and wholesale, wood processing, automotive industry, construction, financial services, pharmaceutical products, metal processing, and beverage wholesale and production. The authors also scrutinised 72 articles of 38 Forbes magazine archiving from the years 2010-2014. Thirty CSF were defmed. The most significant CSF according to the Forbes interviews are specific market niche, export, technological innovations, and high quality of products and services. The in-depth interviews with the top management representatives prove the importance of the above mentioned factors. Relevant recommendations are provided in the end of the paper.     

Methods and tools for integrated assessment of land use policies on sustainable development in developing countries

For stimulating sustainable development in developing countries, land use patterns and land use changes are considered critical, and therefore effective and efficient land use policies are needed. In this paper we present a methodological framework that has been developed in a joint European and developing countries project (LUPIS – Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries), to assess the impact of land use policies on sustainable development in developing countries. An illustrative application is presented for a case study in China, where water pollution due to agriculture in Taihu Basin is a major problem.     

How Does Stock Market React to Dividend Surprises? Evidence from Emerging Markets of India and Russia

In this article the authors empirically investigate information content of dividends announcements and average reaction of emerging markets of India and Russia to dividend surprises on the postcrisis period 2010 to 2014. The study applies an analysts’ expectations-based approach rarely used in academic literature. The authors conclude that the Russian market on average reacts negatively to good and bad dividend surprises; good dividend surprises on average trigger positive abnormal returns on Indian stocks, whereas bad and no surprises are associated with negative reactions of the Indian market. Results of the study are discussed from the perspective of dividend signaling theory, market efficiency, and investor behavior.     

The Impact of Agricultural Import Tariff on Economic Growth： Evidence From Mercosur Countries

This research paper attempts to determine the relationship between agricultural import tariff and economic growth of Mercosur countries over the period 1996-2007 using regression analysis as well as evaluates the gains and losses from the group＇s trade policy over the same period. The introductory part of this paper focuses on the dynamics of changes in economic growth, trade, and import tariff of these countries over the last two decades. The results of the performed regression analysis of panel data suggest that trade liberalization has a quantitatively significant positive effect on growth. By using the coefficient estimates on tariff, the authors perform a quantitative evaluation of gains and losses from trade policy, for which tariff measures to trade （imports） are used as a proxy.     

Investment and Innovation State Support of Agriculture in Russia as a Condition of WTO

Russian agriculture is one of the industries operating in the unstable economic situation in a developing market taking into account risks of the world economy, economic, political, and climatic factors. The role of agriculture is to provide people＇s needs for food, significant effects on employment, the efficiency of domestic production, and way of life in rural areas by obligatory preserving food security in Russia. One of the major tasks for agriculture is the development of innovations and investments aimed at improving the competitiveness of the domestic agricultural sector. Russia＇s membership in the WTO since 2012 is getting a particular importance in the innovation and investment support of agriculture. The strategy of innovative development of the Russian Federation until 2020 ＂Innovative Russia--2020＂ assumes three possible options for innovative development： inertial （directed on imports）, catch-up development and a local technological competitiveness and a variant of achieving leadership in leading scientific and technical sectors, and fundamental research. A positive point is that the strategy provides an algorithm of state support of the innovation cycle. The innovation cycle is the process associated with the sequence of innovation transformations （scientific or business ideas） in products, technology, business process and launches it on the market for commercial use. A positively developing regional aspect is of great importance.     

What do Russians think about transition?1

We use data from the 2006 round of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey to describe perceptions of the Russian population about the transition process and the role of the state compared with that of free markets. We find that about one‐half of the Russian population is disappointed with transition and a large majority is in favour of high state regulation and state provision of goods and services. High demand for government regulation and increased state intervention coexists with a low level of trust in government institutions and recognition of high and rising levels of corruption. The findings are consistent with the theory developed by Aghion et al. (2009) . In an environment with poor social capital, private business imposes negative externalities on the society and society chooses to demand more state regulation and tolerate corruption to reduce these externalities. We also find that individual perceptions of social capital and corruption co‐vary with the demand for regulation, as predicted by the theory.     

Information Externalities,Neighborhood Characteristics and Home Mortgage Pricing and Underwriting

Theories of rational redlining suggest thinness in housing markets should lead to greater uncertainty in house price appraisals, increasing mortgage denial rates or pricing. Empirical tests found support for this theory in mortgage underwriting using 1990s data. Using 2006 data and bank‐specific regression models, we revisit this topic in light of two developments leading to the recent mortgage bubble: the widespread securitization that allowed banks to shift loan risk to investors and the advent of risk‐based pricing. Consistent with expectations, we find that information externalities have become economically very small and have shifted from underwriting to pricing decisions.     

Two‐sample nonparametric estimation of intergenerational income mobility in the United States and Sweden

We estimate intergenerational income mobility in the US and Sweden, using a new nonparametric approach. The approach addresses several empirical issues raised in the literature and applies when other estimators are infeasible. We argue that previous estimates of income mobility conceal the heterogeneous nature of the transmission mechanism by keeping mobility constant across families. The striking differences we find between mobility patterns across family backgrounds, captured by father's education, lead us to question the conventional result that intergenerational transmission of earnings is weaker in Sweden than in the United States, for important parts of the population.