Money as a Potential Anchor for the Price Level: a Critique of the P* Approach

A number of recent articles have attempted to restore the use of a simple measure of the money supply as an indicator of future price levels and to re-establish a causal link from money to prices. Most notably Hallman, Porter and Small (HPS) (1989a), (1989b) originated the approach using US data and Hannah and James(1989) have applied it to the UK The approach broadens the traditional idea of a constant velocity of money by introducing the notion of V* and Q*, the long-run value of velocity and income. These are then used to define P from the traditional quantity theory of money as the long-run equilibrium price level. The analysis then proceeds to estimate a standard Error Correction Model (ECM) for price determination with the levels effect given by (P-P*)t-1. The conclusion drawn is that 'a measure of money that determines the long-run future level of prices is useful in determining the proper monetary policy for attaining price stability. We have shown, through the construction of P*, that M2 can serve as this determinant for the price level' (Hallman, Porter and Small (1982a) p. 23).
We argue in this paper that the P* approach is flawed. It is certainly more complex than traditional monetarist approaches but the fundamental questions of causality are in no way either affected or resolved. The P* analysis is a variant on more conventional cointegration analysis (Engle and Granger (1987), Johansen (1988), Hall (1989)) and we argue that the Johansen framework allows us to address the question in a formal and more complete way. When this approach is applied to the US data used by HPS, we find that while the P* relationship does indeed represent a cointegrating one, it does not have a causal link with prices but rather the causality runs from prices to money - this result conforms well to the work of Hendry and Ericsson (1990) or Hall, Henry and Wilcox (1990), which use this form of relationship to model the demand for money.     

THE VALUE OF CLEANER AIR: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH

Policymakers in the legislative and regulatory arenas face increasing public expectations that authorities will both promulgate and implement strict environmental programs. At the same time, the aggregate cost of such programs is rising and is impacting economic sectors previously untouched. In this context, a major study used an integrated interdisciplinary perspective to determine what economic benefits would result from air pollution controls. Specifically, the study developed estimates for the health benefits of reducing ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations in the nation's most polluted region—the South Coast Air Basin centering on Los Angeles. This paper presents the economic methodologies and results of that study. It also discusses how health and atmospheric sciences informed the economic assessment.     

Time as a Direct Source of Utility: The Case of Price Information Search for Groceries

A “joint production” model that combines aspects of household production and the economics of information is formulated to explain variation in time spent in price information search for groceries by dual earner households. Enjoyment of search time, a psychological variable, is incorporated into the model. Empirical estimation using grocery expenditure data indicates that enjoyment, income, age, the price of search time, presence of young and teenage children, daily use of a microwave oven, and the percentage of a market basket filled with name brand items are significant factors in explaining variation in time spent in price information search.     

Usefulness of Economics in Explaining Consumer Complaints

Based on an economic model of consumer demand, a multinomial logit model is estimated to predict the probability of a consumer falling into one of four categories of complaint action: no action, private, public, or both private and public complaints. Automobile repair and medical services are used as examples of more and less competitive industries. There are differences across industries with regard to variables that explain variation in complaints. Once variables representing the cost/benefit, learning, restraints, and personality models are accounted for, most of the variation in complaint behavior for both industries is explained by the learning and restraints models. Characteristics of individuals are important in explaining complaint behavior for both auto repair and medical services, while supply side characteristics are important in explaining variation in complaint behavior for auto repair services.     

Some empirical evidence on the stability of accounting error characteristics over time*

Abstract. This paper extends the analysis of previous research to provide evidence on the behavior of error characteristics over time. We find that while, in aggregate, accounting errors tend to be stable over time, the sources of these errors tend to be unstable. Thus, time series modeling of internal controls in external audits may be fruitful only at sufficiently high levels of aggregation. Résumé. Cet article élargit l'analyse contenue dans les recherches antérieures afin de fournir des preuves quant au comportement des caractéristiques des erreurs dans le temps. Nous constatons que bien qu'au total les erreurs comptables ont tendance à étre stables dans le temps, les sources de ces erreurs ont plutôt tendance à varier. Dès lors, la modélisation des séries chronologiques relatives aux contrôles internes dans le contexte de missions de vérification externe ne peut être profitable qu'à des niveaux d'agrégation suffisamment élevés.     

Clothing outshopping in a rural Western community

Statistics reveal that over half of all women are gainfully employed outside the home. Professional working women have a certain status to maintain and it is reasonable to assume that their clothing needs might differ from women who are employed in other occupations and who remain in the home. Recent research has shown that considerable shopping occurs out of the local retail trade area (termed outshopping). Product-specific outshopping research has revealed clothing to be a product consumers are willing to out-shop to obtain. Professionally employed women might have to resort to outshopping more often than the other women in order to meet their clothing needs. For this project outshopping was defined to be the percentage of shopping which occurred at least 50 miles from the test site. This research represents the combined efforts of a graduate class studying trends in fashion merchandising; a telephone survey was developed and conducted by the class and responses from 100 female consumers were analysed using multiple step-wise regression. It was predicted and found that clothing outshopping behaviour could be significantly predicted by the degree of satisfaction with local retailing and number of children remaining in the home. Including the two variables professional/non-professional working status, and the age of female respondent as predictors, did not significantly improve the ability to predict outshopping behaviour. The implications for retailers are discussed.