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Tournaments create strong incentives under the assumption that the competition between the agents is balanced. If, at the outset, one agent is stronger than the other, the tournament is ex ante unbalanced and incentives break down. Handicaps can in this case restore incentives. In practice, competing agents are often overall equally strong but have different sorts of strengths. Then, competition will typically be unbalanced ex post and incentives break down, but handicaps cannot be used. We show how a simple means, introducing the possibility of a tie, can often resolve the problem. We examine under what conditions incentives are maximized by ties. 相似文献
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Fabian Krüger 《Empirical Economics》2017,53(1):235-246
Ensemble methods can be used to construct a forecast distribution from a collection of point forecasts. They are used extensively in meteorology, but have received little direct attention in economics. In a real-time analysis of the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, we compare ensemble methods to histogram-based forecast distributions of GDP growth and inflation in the Euro Area. We find that ensembles perform very similarly to histograms, while being simpler to handle in practice. Given the wide availability of surveys that collect point forecasts but not histograms, these results suggest that ensembles deserve further investigation in economics. 相似文献
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Daniel Krähmer 《Journal of Economic Theory》2012,147(1):118-141
This paper studies optimal auction design when the seller can affect the buyers? valuations through an unobservable ex ante investment. The key insight is that the optimal mechanism may have the seller play a mixed investment strategy so as to create correlation between the buyers? otherwise (conditionally) independent valuations. Assuming that the seller announces the mechanism before investing, the paper establishes conditions on the investment technology so that a mechanism exists which leaves buyers no information rent and leaves the seller indifferent between his investments. Under these conditions, the seller can, in fact, extract the first best surplus almost fully. 相似文献
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Walter Krämer 《Empirical Economics》1995,20(3):473-478
This note considers the small sample bias of the empirical variances of observed and ex-post-rational prices of financial assets, and shows that this can be much more severe than has previously been thought. 相似文献