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1.
Estimation of expected return is required for many financial decisions. For example, an estimate for cost of capital is required for capital budgeting and cost of equity estimates are needed for performance evaluation based on measures such as EVA. Estimates for expected return are often based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which states that expected excess return (expected return minus the risk-free rate) is equal to the asset's sensitivity to the world market portfolio (β) times the risk premium on the “world market portfolio” (the market risk premium). Since the world market portfolio, by definition, contains all assets in the world, it is not observable. As a result, an estimate for expected return is commonly obtained by taking an estimate for β based on some index (as a proxy for the world market portfolio) and an estimate for the market risk premium based on a potentially different index and multiplying them together. In this paper, it is shown that this results in a biased estimate for expected return. This is undesirable since biased estimates lead to misallocation of funds and biased performance measures. It is also shown in this paper that the straightforward procedure suggested by Fama and MacBeth [J. Financ. Econ. 1 (1974) 43] results in an unbiased estimate for expected return. Further from the analysis done, it follows that, for an unbiased estimate, it does not matter what proxy is used, as long as it is used correctly an unbiased estimate for expected return results. 相似文献
2.
3.
Jan W. Van Deth 《Quality and Quantity》1986,20(2-3):261-272
This article presents an application of Prezeworski and Teune's so-called “identity-equivalence method” to a large set of indicators of political participation. By relaxing commonly held assumptions about necessary distinctions among types of participation, it is found that the distinction between “conventional” and “unconventional” modes of participation is unnecessary, while the distinction between “government” and “nongovernment” has some merit. The findings also lend further support to the claims of Prezeworski and Teune that the identity-equivalence method is preferable to the identical indicator method. 相似文献
4.
On Conditional Density Estimation 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
With the aim of mitigating the possible problem of negativity in the estimation of the conditional density function, we introduce a so-called re-weighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) estimator. The proposed RNW estimator is constructed by a slight modification of the well-known Nadaraya-Watson smoother. With a detailed asymptotic analysis, we demonstrate that the RNW smoother preserves the superior large-sample bias property of the local linear smoother of the conditional density recently proposed in the literature. As a matter of independent statistical interest, the limit distribution of the RNW estimator is also derived. 相似文献
5.
Generally valid scientific explanations of observable social phenomena are still hardly available. By applying philosophical insights generated by Quine and derived from semiotics to social research methodology three kinds of context dependencies accompanying theory formation within social science are identified. The third context dependency is mostly not attended in theory formation about social phenomena thereby producing a ``connotation fallacy', which leaves almost all social theories undetermined and fallible. These context dependencies should be taken into account in the research design and be tested for using statistical criteria comprising a new methodology presented in this article. 相似文献
6.
Many observers argue that informed and insider trading is widespread in the emerging financial markets of transition countries, yet rigorous treatment of this issue has been virtually non–existent. The current paper estimates the extent of informed trading on the Prague Stock Exchange (PSE) using intra–day transaction data. Our estimates confirm that the average share of informed trading is equal to 0.32, which is high relative to developed markets and varies considerably among stocks. Using the Easley et al. (1996) approach on the very best segment of the PSE we obtained a high average probability of informed trading. Since data used in this study cover the period after the major attempts to improve market regulations, our results indicate that the PSE needs further strengthening to recover credibility and to become a real source of corporate financing. JEL classification: G14, G15. 相似文献
7.
This paper provides a macroeconomic perspective for governmentinterventions in banking crisis. Such crisis occur when a largenumber of banks fail to meet capital requirements or are insolvent.Using a macroeconomic model with financial intermediation, ouranalyis suggests that strict enforcement of capital-adequaterules suffices in prosperous periods. Capital requirements serveas an indicator for crises interventions in critical stateswhich may require interest rate intervention and restructuringof the banking industry. These policies can be reinforced byrandom bailouts and temporary financial relief, with a largepercentage of the costs being covered by current and futureowners of banks. (JEL D41, E4, G2) 相似文献
8.
Jan Selmer 《Thunderbird国际商业评论》2006,48(3):347-368
Although the standard of English proficiency is rising in China, using English in conversations with Chinese host nationals may be difficult. Therefore, proficiency in the Chinese language may promote the adjustment of foreign business expatriates in China. To test this proposition, a mail survey was directed to Western business expatriates assigned to China. Controlling for the time expatriates had spent in China, results showed that their language ability had a positive association with their sociocultural adjustment. Not surprisingly, this positive relationship was strongest for interaction adjustment and weakest for work adjustment. The straightforward implications of these clear findings are discussed in detail. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 相似文献
9.
This note demonstrates an application of a multilevel multinomial model. We use that model to analyse interviewer effects on various components of unit nonresponse to a face-to-face survey: refusals and noncontacts. The model allows for an analysis of these two interviewer effects and a possible connection between both at the same time. Our results show that both the chances for refusals as for noncontacts are subject to interviewer effects. We also find some evidence for a relation between both interviewer effects: interviewers who obtain more refusals are also more likely to report noncontacts. That result is however at least partly dependent on an outlier, an interviewer with a high number of refusals and noncontacts. 相似文献
10.
Richard T. Hise D.B.A. Jan P. Muczyk D.B.A. 《Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science》1977,5(1-2):126-133
Previous studies of the driving times of shopping center patrons have not examined the effect of limited access highways.
This study analyzed the impact of interstate highways on the driving times of 204 shoppers at three medium-sized regional
shopping centers. Those shoppers indicating usage of interstate highways to reach their shopping destinations were significantly
more likely to incur travel times greater than fifteen and twenty minutes than those not using the available interstate roads.
In predicting the drawing power of these shopping centers, factors besides mass were found to be useful. These include square
footage of shopping goods, stores, and number of parking places. 相似文献