Leaving state sector employment in Russia

I analyse the reallocation of labour and human capital from the state sector to the non‐state sector and non‐employment in Russia. I use a nationally representative household dataset, the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, to study sectoral mobility in early transition using summary measures of mobility and multivariate discrete choice models. The results show that sectoral mobility varies between different skill groups, and in particular that those with university education, with supervisory responsibility and in white‐collar occupations are less likely to leave state jobs for both non‐state employment and non‐employment. The results suggest that in the early stages of transition in Russia mismatch of skills across state/non‐state employment was significant and that non‐state employment consisted mostly of low skill, ‘bad’ jobs.     

The elasticity of taxable income and income-shifting: what is “real” and what is not?

Previous literature shows that income taxation significantly affects the behavior of high-income earners and business owners. However, it is still unclear how much of the response is due to changes in real economic activity, and how much is caused by tax avoidance. In this paper, we distinguish between real responses and income-shifting between tax bases. We show that separating income-shifting responses can largely affect the welfare analysis of income taxation. In our empirical example of Finnish business owners, we find that income-shifting accounts for a majority of the overall elasticity of taxable income, which significantly decreases the marginal excess burden.     

Traditions of sustainability in tourism studies

As sustainability has become an important policy issue in tourism, it is arousing growing discussion and criticism, and an increasing need to understand the nature of the limits of growth. This paper analyzes how these limits are approached and evaluated in discussions on a local scale. The purpose is to recognize that behind the different understandings of them lie distinct traditions that are different in their focuses. These are referred to as resource-, activity-, and community-based traditions of sustainability. Further, the relationship between sustainable tourism and sustainable development is critically discussed.     

Labour force participation across Europe: a cohort-based analysis

We use a cohort-based model to analyse the determinants of labour force participation in six European economies, focusing on age and cohort effects as factors explaining differences in participation behaviour across countries. Cohort effects are particularly relevant for women with those born in the late 1960s and early 1970s more likely to participate over the life-cycle. Our results suggest that cohort effects can be interpreted as evolving social norms or preferences towards participating in the labour market according to Fernandez (NBER working paper no. 13373, 2007). We find substantial variation in the estimated age and cohort effects across European countries: cohort effects can account for a substantial part of the recent increase in participation in Spain, the Netherlands and Germany, and a positive, but smaller part of in the increase in participation of the UK, Italy and France. Looking forward, positive cohort effects could help counteract the downward impact of population ageing on participation.     

What are wilderness areas for? Tourism and political ecologies of wilderness uses and management in the Anthropocene

ABSTRACT

In global imaginaries, wilderness areas are considered to represent the last parts of “original” nature, untouched by civilization and modernization. In most cases, this is misleading as wilderness environments have been exploited, explored and also converted into administrative units in various protected area networks. Indeed, most wilderness areas have been a part of human–environment interactions for a long time and they have been influenced and modified in that interaction. As a result, wilderness is constitutively a cultural and politically loaded idea. While the Western notion of wilderness as a place where “man himself is a visitor who doesn't remain” represents the global hegemonic conservation thinking, it does not necessarily work with different local realities, meanings and use values of “the wild”. In addition, in recent decades, the tourism industry has placed an increasing interest on nature-based and adventure tourism products creating new kinds of ideas and use needs for the remaining wilderness environments. This paper analyzes empirically how wilderness environments and their roles are seen in the context of new and traditional anthropogenic uses and meanings of wilderness areas. More specifically, the paper uses a political ecology approach to evaluate the use and management priorities in the Finnish Wilderness system.     

MISPERCEPTIONS AND MONETARY POLICY IN A NEW-KEYNESIAN MODEL

This paper studies the consequences for the monetary policy design of information shortages on the part of the private sector. We model these shortages as exogenous shocks to expected income, which through an IS curve, disturb aggregate demand. We constrain policymakers to follow Taylor‐like rules but allow them to optimise coefficients: we find that the presence of misperceptions makes the optimised Taylor rule respond more aggressively to inflation and the output gap. We also find that if the policymaker is uncertain about misperceptions, then it is less costly to assume they are pervasive when they are not than the reverse. In other words, setting policy on the basis that the private sector is subject to misperceptions is a ‘robust’ policy.     

Changes in Investors' Market Attention and Near-Term Stock Market Returns

We use Google Search volume to track changes investors' positive and negative market attention. Our results support the hypothesis that this information reflects investors' optimistic and pessimistic anticipation and can be used to predict near-term future returns. We find that changes in negative search term volume of “market crash” and “bear market” and changes in positive search term volume “market rally” explain near-term stock returns. Changes in investors' attention are partly related to past stock market returns, implying that investors are prone to pay attention to possible price reversals. These measures of market attention are potential gauges of investor sentiment.