Optimising a Probabilistic Model of the Development of Play in Soccer

We present a probabilistic model based on the one developed by Hernández Mendo and Anguera (Revista de Psicologíca Social, 16(1), 71–93, 2001). Here we have tried to break down the interaction contexts that the opposing teams are able to generate and transform during the game. We are aware that a given player or team does not produce consistent behaviour in similar situations. However, a degree of uncertainty is assumed to exist regarding whether the results obtained are a specific function of the analysis used. In order to carry out this research a category system which optimized that used in the previous model was developed. This system should enable the interaction between teams to be observed within the actual play of a soccer game. A lag sequential analysis was performed on the basis of a coding of the behavioural flow. After describing the behavioural patterns obtained a probabilistic model of the development of play in soccer is proposed.     

Why and How Does Social Responsibility Differ Among SMEs? A Social Capital Systemic Approach

Research suggests that organizational justice (procedural, distributive, and interactional justice) has important impacts on work-related attitudes and behaviors, such as organizational citizenship behavior (OCB). In this article, we explore the extent to which individualism moderates the relationship between organizational justice and OCB (organizational obedience, participation, and loyalty) among citizens in Kyrgyzstan. We make additional contributions to the literature because we know very little about these constructs in this former Soviet Union country, Kyrgyzstan, an under-researched and under-represented region of the world. Results of our data collected from 402 managers and employees in Kyrgyzstan offer the following new discoveries. All three justice constructs are related to OCB. Individualism moderates only the distributive and interactive justice to OCB relationships. We develop an intricate theory with provocative implications: Procedural justice produces obedience. For “individualists,” interactional justice inspires loyalty and, interestingly, distributive justice “can only buy” participation, but “can’t buy” loyalty. Therefore, for individualists, interactional justice outweighs distributive justice for organizational loyalty. Based on Kyrgyz citizens’ justice, OCB, and individualism, our theory reveals novel insights regarding culture, money attitude, and intrinsic motivation and provides critical and practical implications to the field of business ethics.     

The decline of the traditional travel agent model

This article analyzes the struggle between traditional travel agencies and airlines to gain control of the Spanish airline services market. Also analyzed is the strong emergence of a third player, online travel portals that act as online travel agencies. We use a multinomial logit model to study the influence of 27 socio-economic factors and trip attributes on passenger purchase channel choice. The results show that the profile of a passenger who has a greater likelihood of making his/her bookings online is that of a young person, a student or educated to a high level, a habitual traveler, booking a simple journey and using an LCC. The factors linked to an increased likelihood of making purchases by phone include: being male, middle-aged, on a business or short trip, and the passengers usually use a travel agency. Finally, passengers who are over 65 years of age, with a lower academic level, who use a travel agency and are going to make a more complicated journey, are more likely to purchase their tickets in-store.     

Road accessibility and cohesion in lagging regions: Empirical evidence from Portugal based on spatial econometric models

A number of transportation infrastructure projects were conducted in Europe during the 1990s with the explicit objective of promoting regional cohesion goals through the improvement of the accessibility of peripheral regions. Given its peripheral situation in the Union, Portugal was a key target for some of these projects. A decade later, it is pertinent to ask whether the new infrastructure achieved its objective of promoting lagging regions. The objective of this paper is to analyze one of the lagging regions in Portugal, to try to establish the link between changes in accessibility levels brought by improvements in the transportation network, and two indicators commonly used in accessibility research (population and purchasing power), while controlling other variables of possible relevance, such as the levels of educational achievement of the population in the region. The analysis is based on the use of spatially autoregressive models which allow the representation of accessibility as spatially lagged variables of first and second order. The results place the contribution of accessibility changes in context, and point at the relevance of education as an alternative policy.     

Comparing alternative methods to estimate gravity models of bilateral trade

The gravity equation has been traditionally used to predict trade flows across countries. However, several problems related with its empirical application still remain unsolved. The unobserved heterogeneity, the presence of heteroskedasticity in trade data or the existence of zero flows, which make the estimation of the logarithm unfeasible, are some of them. This paper provides a survey of the most recent literature concerning the specification and estimation methods of this equation. For a dataset covering 80% of world trade, the most widely extended estimators are compared, showing that the Heckman sample selection model performs better overall for the specification of gravity equation selected.     

The impact of product diversification strategy on the corporate performance of large Spanish firms

We analyze the impact of product diversification on performance. This topic has been discussed in the literature, and there is no consensus so far as to the significance or the direction of the impact. Performance is measured using Tobin's q for a sample of 103 large, non-financial Spanish firms (1992–1995). Diversification is measured by means of a categorical variable, as suggested by Varadarajan. The principal results indicate that the firms with intermediate levels of product diversification have the highest performance, while the firms with low and high levels of diversification show significantly lower performance, which performance is not significantly different between them.     

Reconciling sustainability and discounting in Cost–Benefit Analysis: A methodological proposal

The incorporation of the intergenerational equity objective has rendered the traditional Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA) approach obsolete for the evaluation of projects presenting an important number of environmental externalities and for those whose impacts extend throughout a long period of time.Based on the assumption that applying a discount rate rewards current consumption and, therefore, that it is only possible to introduce a certain intergenerational equity in a Cost–Benefit Analysis, in this work we propose an approach to discounting based on a different rationale for tangible and intangible effects. We designed two indicators of environmental profitability: a) the Intergenerational Transfer Amount (ITA), which quantifies in monetary units what the current generation is willing to pass on future generations when an environmental restoration project is carried out, and b) the Critical Environmental Rate (CER), measures the implicit environmental profitability.These concepts were tested through an empirical case study pertaining to the assessment of an Erosion Control Project in the southeast of Spain. The results yield traditional profitability indicators that are higher — and probably closer — to the real values set by the contemporary society. The information provided by the environmental profitability indicators proposed renders more transparency to the quantification of the levels of intergenerational equity applied, thereby facilitating the difficult reconciliation of the CBA technique with the objective of sustainability.     

The quarterly national accounts trend–cycle filter versus model–based filters

Abstract. In this paper, we first review the Spanish Quarterly National Accounts (Sqna) trend–cycle filter and give a formula to compute the first component of the filter that corrects an error in the expression that has been used in the Sqna System so far. Then, the results obtained with this last filter are compared to the ones obtained using the Tramo andSeats programs, which apply a model–based methodology. It is concluded that the {sc Sqna} filter presents some problems, such us the generation of spurious cycles, a phase delay, non–efficient initial conditions and larger estimation errors, which can be avoided if model–based filters are used. A Hodrick–Prescott filter with a suitable smoothing parameter is proposed to smooth trend–cycle series that are somewhat volatile and have been obtained with model–based filters. In this way, smooth signals can be obtained that are free of spurious cycles.