EFFECT OF FED POLICY ACTIONS ON THE DEFAULT LIKELIHOOD OF COMMERCIAL BANKS

Using a measure of default likelihood based on an option pricing method, we provide evidence that Fed policy actions affect the financial distress of commercial banks. When the Fed increases (decreases) interest rates, the measure of default likelihood increases (decreases). We show that when the Fed uses a tight money policy, the increase in default likelihood is more pronounced for banks that have less capital, have greater financial leverage, are smaller, have fewer growth opportunities, and have lower asset quality. Additionally, the effects on bank default likelihood are more pronounced when the Fed's policy signals less concern about economic growth, as indicated by its bias toward further tightening, and when there is a market expectation of higher short‐term market rates in the future.     

INTRA-INDUSTRY EFFECTS OF BOND RATING ADJUSTMENTS

Several studies find that bond rating downgrades cause negative valuation effects. Other studies find that signals conveyed by earnings releases, earnings forecasts, bankruptcies, and stock offerings of individual firms can be transmitted to their corresponding industries. By combining the two sets of studies, we hypothesize that bond rating changes may contain relevant information not only about the firm, but also about the corresponding industry. We find significantly negative valuation effects for rating downgrades, which are transmitted throughout the industry. Furthermore, we find that intra-industry effects depend on particular characteristics of the bond downgrade, the downgraded firm, and industry rivals. Specifically, the negative intra-industry effects are more pronounced when (1) the downgraded firm experiences a more severe share price response to the bond rating downgrade, (2) the downgraded firm is dominant in the industry, (3) the downgraded firm is more closely related to its rivals in the industry, and (4) the downgrade is due to a deterioration in the firm's financial prospects.     

Sources of Bank Interest Rate Risk

We investigate bank stocks'sensitivity to changes in interest rates and the factors affecting this sensitivity. We focus on whether the exposure of commercial banks to interest rate risk is conditioned on certain balance sheet and income statement ratios. We find a significantly negative relation between bank stock returns and changes in interest rates over the period 1991–1996. We also find that bank characteristics measured from basic financial statement information explain bank stocks'sensitivity to interest rate changes. These results suggest that bank managers, analysts, and regulators can use this information to assess the relative risk exposure of banks.     

What are the real prospects for total EC integration?

Nothing can stop the momentum behind the movement for total European integration, or so it would seem. But what about the impact of Gemn reunijication, strong nationalistic feelings, and the socialist tradition in Europe? The authors look at what impact these might have on the move toward creation of a Single Market.     

The value of a story in organisation learning

Projects of Organisation Learning (OL) are designed to facilitate a change in an organisation's ability to engage or construct their futures. However, OL remains difficult to explain and operationalise. Traditional views of Organisational Learning, by relying on implicit views of individual learning, distort the importance of the social/cultural context of learning. A Communities of Practice perspective is used to focus on locally negotiated and situated meanings in the context of the practice of valued work. A narrative approach is employed to access the values of a group of advisers required to learn and change according to the requirements of a central government department. The findings show a pattern of values not entirely disconnected from the requirements for change. However, by relying on the assumption of the diffusion of change, a change agent was unable to gain the acceptance of advisers to the requirements. It is suggested that future thinking about OL and change need to examine how talk is used to make new realities with others.     

Using R to teach econometrics

R, an open‐source programming environment for data analysis and graphics, has in only a decade grown to become a de‐facto standard for statistical analysis against which many popular commercial programs may be measured. The use of R for the teaching of econometric methods is appealing. It provides cutting‐edge statistical methods which are, by R's open‐source nature, available immediately. The software is stable, available at no cost, and exists for a number of platforms, including various flavours of Unix and Linux, Windows (9x/NT/2000), and the MacOS. Manuals are also available for download at no cost, and there is extensive on‐line information for the novice user. This review focuses on using R for teaching econometrics. Since R is an extremely powerful environment, this review should also be of interest to researchers. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Working While the World Sleeps: A Consideration of Sleep and Shift Work Design

The evolution of society and economic pressure has provided the impetus for operating on a 24-hr basis in many industries. This has occurred with relatively little attention toward sleep deprivation and related problems facing shift workers and the organizations employing them. This paper first documents the move toward shift work and some sleep problems associated with it. We then describe sleep disorders that impact job performance. Next, we describe alternative schedules and give suggestions for shift work implementation. Finally, we offer some normative advice regarding the treatment of shift employees.     

The impact of trust and contract on innovation performance: The moderating role of environmental uncertainty

Research into two important control mechanisms for managing the supply chain relationship - contracts and trust - is on the rise. However, our understanding of how they influence innovation in a firm remains rather unclear. Thus, the primary objective of this study is to examine the individual and interactive effects of contracts and trust on firms' innovation performance and the contingent effects of environmental uncertainty on those relationships in China. The empirical results from a survey of Chinese manufacturing firms indicate that there is a positive relationship between trust and firms' innovation performance, an inverted U-shaped relationship between the use of contracts and firms' innovation performance, and that contracts and trust are substitutes. Moreover, we find that environmental uncertainty enhances the effects of trust, but does not influence the impact of contracts on innovation performance.