Stochastic Models of Implied Volatility Surfaces

We propose a market–based approach to the modelling of implied volatility, in which the implied volatility surface is directly used as the state variable to describe the joint evolution of market prices of options and their underlying asset. We model the evolution of an implied volatility surface by representing it as a randomly fluctuating surface driven by a finite number of orthogonal random factors. Our approach is based on a Karhunen–Loeve decomposition of the daily variations of implied volatilities obtained from market data on SP500 and DAX options.
We illustrate how this approach extends and improves the accuracy of the well–known 'sticky moneyness' rule used by option traders for updating implied volatilities. Our approach gives a justification for the use of 'Vegas' for measuring volatility risk and provides a decomposition of volatility risk as a sum of independent contributions from empirically identifiable factors.
(J.E.L.: G130, C14, C31).     

Financial instability and the real economy

Summary The paper deals with three different areas of the financial sphere: national moneys, exchange rates and financial claims, markets and institutions. For each of them, it tries to identify the main forms of instability which may occur, their causes and consequences for the real economy. Depending on the area concerned, the forms of instability include inflation, fluctuations and misalignments in interest rates, exchange rates and asset prices and finally solvency and liquidity crises of institutions. It is concluded that, over the last fifteen years, significant progress has been made in the policy framework to counteract instabilities in the national and monetary spheres. The conclusion is more mixed with regard to the structure of financial markets.[/p]We are grateful to Julian Alworth, Svein Andresen, Gavin Bingham, Joe Bisignano, Michael Hutchison and Paul van den Bergh for useful comments.     

Towards a Macroprudential Framework for Financial Supervision and Regulation?

Over the last decade or so, addressing financial instabilityhas risen to the top of the policy agenda. This essay arguesthat in order to improve the safeguards against financial instability,it may be desirable to strengthen further the macroprudentialorientation of current prudential frameworks, a process thatis already under way. The essay defines, compares and contraststhe macro- and microprudential dimensions that inevitably coexistin financial regulatory and supervisory arrangements, examinesthe nature of financial instability against this backgroundand draws conclusions about the broad outline of desirable policyefforts.(JEL G2) "Words, like nature, half reveal and half conceal the soul within" Alfred Lord Tennyson "When I use a word... it just means what I choose it to mean– neither more, nor less" Humpty Dumpty     

Regulatory Uncertainty and Share Price Volatility: the English and Welsh Water Industry’s Periodic Price Review

This paper models the London stock markets response to the 1994 Periodic Review of prices in the English and Welsh water industry using both GARCH and stochastic volatility models. The results indicate that a significant reduction in the volatility of share prices for eight of the ten water and sewerage companies followed the announcement of revised industry price-caps. Investor expectations adjusted rapidly, reflecting confidence in the credibility and political sustainability of the settlement.     

THE PUBLIC SECTOR PAY GAP IN FRANCE, GREAT BRITAIN AND ITALY

We investigate public–private pay determination using French, British and Italian microdata. While traditional methods focus on parametric methods to estimate the public sector pay gap, in this paper, we use both non-parametric (kernel) and quantile regression methods to analyze the distribution of wages across sectors. We show that the public–private (hourly) wage differential is sensitive to the choice of quantile and that the pattern of premia varies with both gender and skill. In all countries the public sector is found to pay more to low skilled workers with respect to the private sector, whilst the reverse is true for high skilled workers. When comparing results across countries, we find that where pay formation is more regulated (i.e. as in France and Italy) the public sector pay gap is smaller; whilst where market factors play a larger role in pay determination (i.e. as in Great Britain) the public sector pay gap is larger—particularly in the lower part of the wage distribution—and females are much better off in the public sector as compared to the private sector.     

Choosing sides in the trilemma: international financial cycles and structural change in developing economies

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the impact of international financial cycles on structural change in developing economies. It is argued that the impact of these cycles depends on the specific combination of macroeconomic and industrial policies adopted by the developing economy. The cases of Brazil and Argentina are contrasted with those of Korea and China. In the Asian economies, macroeconomic policy has been a complementary tool along with industrial policy to foster the diversification of production and capabilities. Inversely, in the case of the Latin American countries, long periods of real exchange rate (RER) appreciation, combined with the weaknesses (or absence) of industrial policies, contributed to the loss of capabilities and lagging behind.     

Building internal business scenarios based on real data from a performance measurement system

This paper presents a new methodology to build internal business scenarios from the data gathered by some key performance indicators (KPIs) defined within a performance measurement system. The application of the principal components analysis technique leads to the identification of latent relationships between KPIs that underlies some important business aspects. Further, this methodology allows to represent not only the temporal evolution of the organisation as a function of these business aspects but also the definition and determination of internal business scenarios, being therefore the source of meaningful managerial information. At the end of the paper, results of a practical application are presented and discussed, as well as their importance for the organisation from a decision making point of view.     

An Empirical Analysis of Synthesizing the Effects of Festival Quality,Emotion, Festival Image and Festival Satisfaction on Festival Loyalty: A Case Study of Macau Food Festival

This study aims to examine the interrelationships among the festival quality dimensions, festival quality, emotion, festival image, festival satisfaction and festival loyalty. Analysis of data from 454 attendees in the 12^th Macau Food Festival indicates that the proposed model fits the data. The result of this study will assist festival management in developing and implementing market‐orientated service strategies to increase quality and image, and enhance the emotion and satisfaction of attendees in order to attain their loyalty toward food festivals. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental impacts of changes to healthier diets in Europe

Food consumption causes, together with mobility, shelter and the use of electrical products, most life cycle impacts of consumption. Meat and dairy are among the highest contributors to environmental impacts from food consumption. A healthier diet might have less environmental impacts. Using the E3IOT environmentally extended input output database developed in an EU study on Environmental Impacts of Products (EIPRO), this paper estimates the difference in impacts between the European status quo and three simulated diet baskets, i.e. a pattern according to universal dietary recommendations, the same pattern with reduced meat consumption, and a ‘Mediterranean’ pattern with reduced meat consumption. Production technologies, protein and energy intake were kept constant. Though this implies just moderate dietary shifts, impact reductions of up to 8% were possible in reduced meat scenarios. The slightly changed food costs do not lead to significant first order rebound effects. Second order rebounds were estimated by applying the CAPRI partial equilibrium model. This analysis showed that European meat production sector will most likely respond by higher exports to compensate for losses on the domestic meat market. Higher impact reductions probably would need more drastic diet changes.     

The relationship between store image and store brand equity: A conceptual framework and evidence from hypermarkets

Retailers are making considerable efforts to improve their brand management. The challenge they face, however, is how best to integrate coherently their stores, as brands, and their various distributor brands (store brands, private labels, etc.), in order to increase their brand equity and offer the market differential value that will stimulate customer loyalty. From this perspective, it is crucial for retailers to investigate the relationship between the store and their own brands. This study proposes two theoretical models showing the mechanism whereby store image helps increase the equity of a specific type of distributor brand (the store brand). The approach used in this analysis is based, on the one hand, on defining brand equity through its components, using the model in Aaker (1991), and on the other, on including (social and strategic) corporate dimensions in measuring store image. The empirical research made in the hypermarket sector in the Basque province of Gipuzkoa backs the majority of the proposed hypotheses. The results show that store image can be used by retailers to influence all components of store brand equity, essentially through its commercial and strategic dimension. This research is intended to address the clear lack of research on store brand equity.