Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

国家助学贷款中信息不对称问题及其矫正

国家助学贷款工作的实施,为帮助贫困大学生顺利完成学业发挥着重要作用。但是由于助学贷款中的信息不对称所引起的逆向选择和道德风险问题使该项工作陷入了贷还两难的窘境。因此,必须通过建立完善的信用制度,健全法律法规,设计合理的还贷激励机制,构建风险分担体系,加大高校的工作投入,使助学贷款工作能够顺利实施,发挥更大的作用。     

如何计算认股权证的资本成本

认股权证作为一种长期资金的筹资方式 ,其资本成本必须予以考虑。但是使用传统资本成本计算方法不能反映其真实成本。本文尝试使用B -S和CAPM模型来计算其资本成本 ,并用实例说明     

永乐家电能否“永乐”京城

上海家电连锁大鄂永乐家电在经过两年筹划之后于6月18日正式登陆北京．开设了在北京的第一家店。永乐家电董事长陈晓说：“如果不拿下北京与广东的市场，永乐就谈不上是全国性的连锁。“陈晓的这番话让我们看出永乐进入北京的决心，但永乐究竟是“永乐”京城还是永乐自身，是包括像国美、苏宁这样大的家电连锁企业所共同关心的问题。     

服务业集聚与产业结构优化关系探究

随着全球化进程的不断加快，服务业集聚已经成为人们普遍关注的话题。产业集聚在获得规模效应的同时避免了垄断现象的产生，服务业集聚不但拥有这样的优势，而且还有自己独特的形成和发展特点。从产业结构的优化角度切入，借助区位商和专门化率等分析指标，以江苏省和上海市为例，对服务业集聚的形成进行理论和实证分析，提出产业结构的优化对于服务业集聚的形成和发展有着积极的作用。合理的产业结构能够为服务业集聚提供坚实的基础，各地区应该根据各自的产业特点积极的进行优化，催生服务业集聚，加快本地区经济的进一步发展。     

长三角区域行政合作构想

目前,长三角区域行政合作的发展陷入一系列困境,但是泛珠三角区域行政合作却取得很大成功。借鉴其成功的经验与启示,本文提出坚持共享区域合作成果,制定区域合作规范,建立区域合作机制,成立区域合作机构,重新规划区域行政布局等构想来促进长三角区域行政合作。     

银企关系与会计信息稳健性——中国资本市场的经验证据

本文以Watts（2003）的契约理论为基础，分析股东与债权人之间利益冲突对会计信息稳健性的影响。虽然会计信息稳健性有助于保护债权人的利益，但是如果股东可以作为公司的债权人，则投资者对会计信息稳健性的需求下降。本文采用Basu（1997）模型分析了2004年中国上市公司会计信息稳健性，发现国家控制的上市公司的会计信息稳健性程度较低，而民营控制的上市公司会计信息稳健性程度较高，但是股东特征对会计信息稳健性的影响，随着银行在公司中利益的增加而趋于一致。     

An empirical analysis of the relationship between the hedge ratio and hedging horizon: A simultaneous estimation of the short‐ and long‐run hedge ratios

This article analyzes the effects of the length of hedging horizon on the optimal hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness using 9 different hedging horizons and 25 different commodities. We discuss the concept of short‐ and long‐run hedge ratios and propose a technique to simultaneously estimate them. The empirical results indicate that the short‐run hedge ratios are significantly less than 1 and increase with the length of hedging horizon. We also find that hedging effectiveness increases with the length of hedging horizon. However, the long‐run hedge ratio is found to be close to the naïve hedge ratio of unity. This implies that, if the hedging horizon is long, then the naïve hedge ratio is close to the optimum hedge ratio. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:359–386, 2004     

Looking for contagion in currency futures markets

This article tests whether there are pure contagion effects in both conditional means and volatilities among British pound, Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Swiss franc futures markets during the 1992 ERM crisis. A conditional version of international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) in the absence of purchasing power parity (PPP) is used to control for economic fundamentals. The empirical results indicate that overall there are no mean spillovers among those futures markets, but they are detected during the crisis period. That is, past return shocks originating in any one of the four markets have no impact on the other three markets during the entire sample period, suggesting that these markets are weak‐form efficient. However, this weak‐form market efficiency fails to hold during the market turmoil, especially for British pound and Swiss franc, and the sources of contagion‐in‐mean effects are mainly due to the return shocks originating in three European currency futures markets. As for the contagion‐in‐volatility, it is detected for British pound only because its conditional volatility is influenced by the negative volatility shocks from Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Swiss franc, with Deutsche mark playing the dominant role in generating these shocks. JEL Classifications: C32; F31; G12. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:957–988, 2003