Monetary Non-Neutrality and the Intertemporal Approach to the Balance of Trade: The UK Trade Balance under Bretton Woods

Previous research on the intertemporal approach is based on the standard, real model of the balance of trade. This paper outlines a more general model that allows for monetary non-neutrality, and tests the general model against a restricted version that embodies neutrality. While the empirical analysis focuses on the UK trade balance during the Bretton Woods era, the fundamental issues are of interest to more than just students of Bretton Woods.     

EXPORT AND HEDGING DECISIONS UNDER CORRELATED REVENUE AND EXCHANGE RATE RISK

This paper examines the behaviour of a competitive exporting firm under joint revenue and exchange rate risk. The firm can trade unbiased currency futures contracts for hedging purposes. We show that neither the separation theorem nor the full‐hedging theorem holds when the revenue shock prevails. If the correlation between the revenue shock and the random spot exchange rate is non‐positive, the firm optimally produces less than the benchmark level when the revenue shock is absent. If, in addition, the firm is prudent, the optimal futures position is an under‐hedge. Finally, we derive sufficient conditions under which the firm's optimal output level is higher in the presence than in the absence of the revenue shock. Operational hedging and financial hedging as such interact in a complicated way to better cope with the multiple sources of uncertainty faced by the firm.     

A technical note on “Optimizing inventory decisions in a multi-stage multi-customer supply chain”

We first generalize Khouja [Khouja, M., 2003. Optimizing inventory decisions in a multi-stage multi-customer supply chain. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 39 (3), 193–208] integrated model considering the integer multipliers mechanism and next individually derive the optimal solution to the three- and four-stage model using the perfect squares method, which is a simple algebraic approach so that ordinary readers unfamiliar with differential calculus can understand the optimal solution procedure with ease. We subsequently deduce the optimal expressions for Khouja (2003) and Cárdenas-Barrón [Cárdenas-Barrón, L.E., 2007. Optimal inventory decisions in a multi-stage multi-customer supply chain: a note. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 43 (5), 647–654] model, and identify the associated errors in Khouja (2003). We present two numerical examples for illustrative purposes. We finally shed light on some future research by extending or modifying the generalized model.     

Investment and the soft budget constraint in China

This paper examines the incentive effects of the soft budget constraint on the investment behavior of firms in general and on the investment-cash flow sensitivity in particular. To this end, we develop a simple model of moral hazard that takes the soft budget constraint into account. Within this moral hazard environment, we show that investment is positively related to the amount of internal funds. We further show that the presence of the soft budget constraint deteriorates the moral hazard problem, thereby making the investment level less sensitive to the amount of internal funds. This is the case irrespective of whether the soft budget constraint renders the firm more or less liquidity constrained. To test the model's empirical implications, we employ data of China's listed companies for the period from 1997 to 2003. We use the share of state ownership as a proxy for the severity of the soft budget constraint. We find strong evidence that firms with larger shares of state ownership exhibit lower investment-cash flow sensitivities than firms with smaller shares of state ownership.     

A generalized algebraic model for optimizing inventory decisions in a centralized or decentralized multi-stage multi-firm supply chain

First of all, a number of integrated models with/without lot streaming under the integer multiplier coordination mechanism is generalized by allowing lot streaming and three types of inspection for some/all upstream firms. Secondly, the optimal solutions to the three- and four-stage models are individually derived, both using the perfect squares method, which is a simple algebraic approach so that ordinary readers unfamiliar with differential calculus can easily understand how to obtain the optimal solution procedures. Thirdly, optimal expressions for some well-known models are deduced. Fourthly, expressions for sharing the coordination benefits based on Goyal’s (1976) scheme are derived, and a further sharing scheme is introduced. Fifthly, two numerical examples for illustrative purposes are presented. Finally, some future research works involving extension or modification of the generalized model are suggested.     

Earnings quality: Some evidence on the role of auditor tenure and auditors’ industry expertise

Prior studies suggest that auditors with short tenure are associated with lower earnings quality because of the lack of client-specific knowledge and/or low balling. In this study, we examine whether industry specialization of auditors and low balling affect the association between auditor tenure and earnings quality. We find that the association between shorter auditor tenure and lower earnings quality is weaker for firms audited by industry specialists compared to non-specialists. In addition, we do not find results consistent with the low balling explanation.     

THE 2007–2008 U.S. RECESSION: WHAT DID THE REAL‐TIME GOOGLE TRENDS DATA TELL THE UNITED STATES?

In the extant literature of business cycle predictions, the signals for business cycle turning points are generally issued with a lag of at least 5 months. In this paper, we make use of a novel and timely indicator—the Google search volume data—to help to improve the timeliness of business cycle turning point identification. We identify multiple query terms to capture the real‐time public concern on the aggregate economy, the credit market, and the labor market condition. We incorporate the query indices in a Markov‐switching framework and successfully “nowcast” the peak date within a month that the turning occurred. (JEL E37, G17)     

Regret theory and the banking firm: The optimal bank interest margin

This paper examines the optimal bank interest margin, i.e., the spread between the loan rate and the deposit rate of a bank, when the bank is not only risk-averse but also regret-averse. Regret-averse preferences are characterized by a utility function that includes disutility from having chosen ex-post suboptimal alternatives. We show that the presence of regret aversion raises or lowers the optimal bank interest margin than the one chosen by the purely risk-averse bank, depending on whether the probability of default is below or above a threshold value, respectively. Regret aversion as such makes the bank less prudent and more prone to risk-taking when the probability of default is high, thereby adversely affecting the stability of the banking system.