Monetary policy and stock valuation: structural VAR identification and size effects

This paper examines the relationship between the US monetary policy and stock valuation using a structural VAR framework that allows for the simultaneous interaction between the federal funds rate and stock market developments based on the assumption of long-run monetary neutrality. The results confirm a strong, negative and significant monetary policy tightening effect on real stock prices. Furthermore, we provide evidence consistent with a delayed response of small stocks to monetary policy shocks relative to large stocks.     

On Monetary Policy and Stock Market Anomalies

This study utilizes a macro‐based VAR framework to investigate whether stock portfolios formed on the basis of their value, size and past performance characteristics are affected in a different manner by unexpected US monetary policy actions during the period 1967–2007. Full sample results show that value, small capitalization and past loser stocks are more exposed to monetary policy shocks compared with growth, big capitalization and past winner stocks. Sub‐sample analysis, motivated by variation in the realized premia and parameter instability, reveals that the impact of monetary policy shocks on these portfolios is significant and pronounced only during the pre‐1983 period.     

Modeling the behaviour of inflation deviations from the target

This study tests for and models non-linearities in inflation deviations from the target in five OECD countries that adopted inflation targeting over the 1990s. Our tests reject the linearity hypothesis and we show that the exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR) model is capable of capturing the non-linear behavior of inflation misalignments. The extent of inflation deviations from the target varies across the OECD countries, with countries that consistently undershoot the target having a rapid adjustment process, whereas countries that overshoot the target have a slower revision back to equilibrium. Out-of-sample forecasts from the ESTAR model outperform the Markov regime-switching model.     

A New Test of the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis: Bounds Approach and Structural Breaks

The real interest rate parity hypothesis is tested using data for the group of seven industrialized countries (G7) over the period 1970–2008. The contribution is two‐fold. First, the paper utilizes the bounds approach in order to overcome uncertainty about the order of integration of real interest rates. Second, a test is made for structural breaks in the underlying relationship using a multiple structural breaks test. The results indicate significant parameter instability and suggest that, despite the advances in economic and financial integration, real interest rate parity has not fully recovered from a breakdown in the 1980s.     

THE TIME‐SERIES PROPERTIES OF UK INFLATION: EVIDENCE FROM AGGREGATE AND DISAGGREGATE DATA

This paper contrasts the time‐series properties of aggregate and disaggregate UK inflation. While aggregate inflation is found to be non‐stationary, unit root rejection frequencies are increasing when we use more disaggregate data. Structural break analysis suggests that structural shifts in monetary policy could alter inflation persistence. Additionally, panel evidence indicates that the unit root hypothesis can be rejected for sectoral inflation rates. Finally, we compare the persistence properties of UK inflation, finding statistically significant differences between aggregate and disaggregate series. Our analysis suggests that aggregation matters, which has important implications for econometric analysis and the conduct of monetary policy.     

The Euro and inflation uncertainty in the European Monetary Union

This paper adopts a time-varying GARCH framework to estimate short-run and steady-state inflation uncertainty in 12 EMU countries, and then investigates their relationship with inflation. The effects of the Euro introduction in 1999 are examined by utilising a dummy variable. Tests for endogenously determined breaks are also employed. We find a considerable degree of heterogeneity across EMU countries in terms of average inflation, its degree of persistence, and both types of uncertainty, whilst the trend component of inflation is generally decreasing. Various breaks in the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty are found, frequently well before the Euro introduction.     

FORECASTING US INFLATION USING DYNAMIC GENERAL‐TO‐SPECIFIC MODEL SELECTION

We forecast US inflation using a standard set of macroeconomic predictors and a dynamic model selection and averaging methodology that allows the forecasting model to change over time. Pseudo out‐of‐sample forecasts are generated from models identified from a multipath general‐to‐specific algorithm that is applied dynamically using rolling regressions. Our results indicate that the inflation forecasts that we obtain employing a short rolling window substantially outperform those from a well‐established univariate benchmark, and contrary to previous evidence, are considerably robust to alternative forecast periods.     

OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY AND ASSET PRICE MISALIGNMENTS

This paper analyses the relationship between monetary policy and asset prices in the context of optimal policy rules. The transmission mechanism is represented by a linearized rational expectations model augmented for the effect of asset prices on aggregate demand. Stabilization objectives are represented by a discounted quadratic loss function penalizing inflation and output gap volatility. Asset prices are allowed to deviate from their intrinsic value due to momentum trading. We find that in the presence of wealth effects and inefficient markets, asset price misalignments from their fundamentals should be included in the optimal interest rate reaction function.     

Stock market reaction to fed funds rate surprises: State dependence and the financial crisis

This paper examines the response of US stock returns to Federal Funds rate (FFR) surprises between 1989 and 2012, focusing on the impact of the recent financial crisis. We find that outside the crisis period, stock prices increased as a response to unexpected FFR cuts. State dependence is identified with stocks exhibiting larger increases when interest rate easing coincided with recessions, bear markets, and tightening credit conditions. However, an important structural shift occurred during the crisis, changing the stocks’ response to FFR shocks and the nature of state dependence. Throughout the crisis period, stocks did not react positively to unexpected FFR cuts, which were interpreted as signals of worsening future economic conditions. This triggered a rebalancing of investment portfolios away from falling equities and towards safe-haven assets. Our results highlight the severity of the crisis and the ineffectiveness of conventional monetary policy close to the zero lower bound.     

Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European union

We test for real interest rate convergence in the EU25 area. Our contribution is twofold: first, we account for the previously overlooked effects of structural breaks on real interest rate differentials. Second, we test for convergence against the EMU average. For the majority of our sample countries we obtain evidence of convergence towards the latter. This, however, is a gradual process subject to structural breaks, typically falling close to the launch of the euro. Our findings have important implications relating to the single monetary policy and the progress new EU members have achieved towards joining the euro.