Mitigating America's demographic dilemma by pre-funding social security

Financing Social Security benefits at current levels implies significant increases in payroll taxes within the next 20 years under current US demographic developments. Using a general-equilibrium overlapping-generations model with realistic patterns of fertility and lifespan extension, this study shows that future generations would be harmed during the demographic transition due to rising payroll taxes, which crowd out savings and slow real wage growth below the rate of technological progress. A faster rate of technological progress would mitigate only some of the payroll tax increase and its economic consequences but could not overcome them. Addressing the financing problem by reducing Social Security benefits as needed or by raising the eligibility age for benefits imposes major welfare losses on current or near term retirees. By contrast, a pre-funding of Social Security financed with consumption taxes more evenly spreads the welfare losses across generations, and it helps future generations, especially the poor, by stimulating capital formation.     

Simulating alternative social security responses to the demographic transition

"This paper uses a perfect foresight life cycle simulation model to examine the dynamic economic effects of baby 'booms' and baby 'busts' as well as the interaction of such demographic changes with social security policy. Demographic change can have sizeable short and long-run effects on saving rates and factors returns." The geographic focus is on the United States. "The model predicts long-run improvement in welfare associated with a prolonged baby bust. This improvement holds even in the absence of accommodating social security policy. It reflects a long-run decline in the dependency ratio, with the reduction in dependent children per worker more than offsetting the increase in retirees per worker."     

The promotion of maize fertiliser packages: A cause of household food insecurity and peasant impoverishment in high rainfall areas of Zimbabwe

Child malnutrition is a continuing problem in Zimbabwe's communal areas. These include some high rainfall areas, which make a contribution to the country's maize surplus during non‐drought years. A survey of farmers and extension workers in four high rainfall communal areas was carried out to investigate the effects of following recommended practices for maize production on household economy and food security.

Thirty‐two per cent of communal farmers had applied all the officially recommended fertiliser to their 1990/91 maize crop, often by obtaining these inputs on credit in lieu of grain sales receipts from the subsequent harvest. Yet. yields were so low that 48 per cent of these farmers would have been unable to retain sufficient grain to satisfy their families’ minimum requirements, if they had reimbursed the full cost of the input credit.

The majority (64 per cent) of farmers had deviatedfrom the recommended practice by adopting ‘low external input strategies’. A key feature of most of these strategies was the substitution of manure for part or all of the recommended fertiliser. In three of the four communal areas studied, this had improved the chances not only of recovering input costs, but also of achieving maize self‐sufficiency.

These results suggest that policy‐makers should shift emphasis from a dependence on costly external inputs to the integration of low levels of fertiliser with a range of more natural methods of soil improvement, in an effort to improve household food security in the communal areas.     

Corporate taxation and the efficiency gains of the 1986 Tax Reform Act

Summary The 1986 Tax Reform Act (TRA) had little effect on the overall U. S. effective capital income tax rate. However, TRA significantly reduced differences in effective taxation of corporate and noncorporate capital for a number of U. S. industries. The Mutual Production Model developed in Gravelle and Kotlikoff (1989) can be used to study the efficiency gains from the reduction in corporate tax wedges within industries. Unlike the Harberger Model, the Mutual Production Model permits both corporate and noncorporate firms to produce the same goods and, therefore, to coexist within a given industry.This paper develops an 11-industry-55-year dynamic life cycle version of the Mutual Production Model. We use this model to study the steady-state efficiency gains associated with the new law. While we do not simulate the economy's transition path, our steady-state welfare changes are those that arise from compensating transitional generations for the first-order redistribution of income associated with the Tax Reform.We find that the 1986 Tax Reform law reduces excess burden by 85 percent of our model's economy's present value of consumption. This efficiency gain reflects the Tax Reform's reduction in corporate-noncorporate tax wedges, particularly in those industries with significant noncorporate production. Measured as a flow the 1988 estimated efficiency gain from the Tax Reform Act is $31 billion.The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Congressional Research Service of the Library of Congress, Boston University, or The National Bureau of Economic Research. We are particularly grateful to Alan Auerbach, Oldrich Kyn, and an anonymous referee for very extensive and critical comments. We also thank Don Fullerton, Yolanda Henderson, Tom Woodward, and a referee for their very helpful suggestions.     

企业财务危机运营战略

企业一旦出现财务危机，便站在了崩溃边缘，随时都有“生命危险”。化解财务危机，必须面对现实，分析原因，制定切实可行的财务重整计划；确定短期行动方案，降低现金需求、扩大现金来源；寻求过渡时期的资产支援；检讨企业策略与目标，吸取教训，拟定长期整顿方案及实施时间表。     

MAKING CARBON TAXATION A GENERATIONAL WIN WIN

Carbon taxation is mostly studied in social planner or infinitely lived‐agent models, which obscure carbon taxation's potential to produce a generational win win. This article's large‐scale, dynamic 55‐period, overlapping generations model calculates the carbon tax policy delivering the highest uniform welfare gain to all current and future generations. Our model features coal, oil, and gas, increasing extraction costs, clean energy, technical and demographic change, and Nordhaus' carbon/temperature/damage functions. Assuming high‐end carbon damages, the optimal carbon tax is $70, rising annually at 1.5%. This policy raises all generations' welfare by almost 5%. However, doing so requires major intergenerational redistribution.     

Generational Accounting in the UK

This paper presents the first set of generational accounts for the United Kingdom. We find that under our baseline scenario, in which pensions are price indexed and health expenditure grows modestly, the imbalance in UK generational policy is small when compared with other leading industrial countries like the United States, Japan, and Germany. However, under an alternative policy scenario, where all social benefits are wage-indexed and health care spending is increased, there is a larger fiscal bill left for future generations to pay. In this case, achieving generational balance would require much stronger medicine.     

Deposits and relationship lending

We empirically examine whether access to deposits with inelasticrates (core deposits) permits a bank to make contractual agreementswith borrowers that are infeasible if the bank must pay marketrates for funds. Such access insulates a bank's costs of fundsfrom exogenous shocks, allowing it to insulate its borrowersagainst exogenous credit shocks. We find that, controlling forloan market competition, banks funded more heavily with coredeposits provide more loan rate smoothing in response to exogenouschanges in aggregate credit risk. Thus we provide evidence fora novel channel linking bank liabilities to relationship lending.