Reflections on the general theory of second best at its golden jubilee

The origin of the second best article is described and criticisms assessed. Distortions making impossible the achievement of either first or second best optima are outlined. Attempts to establish the applicability of first best rules are criticised, as are general rules for making piecemeal efficiency improvements. Both often use models containing empirically invalid assumptions and a selected few of the full set of distortions. Practical policy advice requires more parochial objective functions than community welfare; must rely on formal and appreciative theory, empirical evidence, and large doses of judgment; and should concentrate on making piecemeal improvements in context-specific situations.     

Wages and foreign ownership A comparative study of Mexico, Venezuela, and the United States

This paper explores the relationship between wages and foreign investment in Mexico, Venezuela, and the United States. Despite very different economic conditions and levels of development, we find one fact that is robust across all three countries: higher levels of foreign investment are associated with higher wages. However, in Mexico and Venezuela, foreign investment is associated with higher wages only for foreign-owned firms — there is no evidence of wage spillovers leading to higher wages for domestic firms. The lack of spillovers in Mexico and Venezuela is consistent with significant wage differentials between foreign and domestic enterprises. In the United States, where the evidence suggests some wage spillovers from foreign to domestic enterprises, wage differentials are smaller.     

General purpose technologies in theory,application and controversy: a review

Distinguishing characteristics of General Purpose Technologies (GPTs) are identified and definitions discussed. Our definition includes multipurpose and single-purpose technologies, defining them according to their micro-technological characteristics, not their macro-economic effects. Identifying technologies as GPTs requires recognizing their evolutionary nature, and accepting possible uncertainties concerning marginal cases. Many of the existing ‘tests’ of whether particular technologies are GPTs are based on misunderstandings either of what GPT theory predicts or what such tests can establish. The development of formal GPT theories is outlined, showing that only the early theories predicted the inevitability of GPT-induced showdown and surges. More recent GPT theories, designed to model the characteristics of GPTs, do not imply the necessity of specific macro effects. We show that GPTs can rejuvenate the growth process without causing slowdowns or surges. We conclude that existing criticisms of GPT theory can be resolved and that the concept remains useful for economic theory.     

Galloping,creeping, or receding internationalization

Using a simple two-period linear durability choice trade model, we examine strategic trade policy in terms of taxes or subsidies levied on duopolistic firms in sales markets. In contrast to earlier parametric durability studies we show that the optimal export policy is not necessarily a tax when product durability is endogenously determined. Our analysis indicates that with endogenous adjustment of durability either a tax, subsidy, or laissez-faire policy (zero subsidy) may be optimal. In addition, we find that any trade policy (tax or subsidy) has the unforeseen effect of changing the firms' product durability. For example, future expected subsidies tend to decrease the domestic firm's product durability while increasing the foreign firm's chosen durability.     

Does history matter?: Empirical analysis of evolutionary versus stationary equilibrium views of the economy

The evolutionary vision in which history matters is of an evolving economy driven by bursts of technological change initiated by agents facing uncertainty and producing long term, path-dependent growth and shorter-term, non-random investment cycles. The alternative vision in which history does not matter is of a stationary, ergodic process driven by rational agents facing risk and producing stable trend growth and shorter term cycles caused by random disturbances. We use Carlaw and Lipsey’s simulation model of non-stationary, sustained growth driven by endogenous, path-dependent technological change under uncertainty to generate artificial macro data. We match these data to the New Classical stylized growth facts. The raw simulation data pass standard tests for trend and difference stationarity, exhibiting unit roots and cointegrating processes of order one. Thus, contrary to current belief, these tests do not establish that the real data are generated by a stationary process. Real data are then used to estimate time-varying NAIRU’s for six OECD countries. The estimates are shown to be highly sensitive to the time period over which they are made. They also fail to show any relation between the unemployment gap, actual unemployment minus estimated NAIRU and the acceleration of inflation. Thus there is no tendency for inflation to behave as required by the New Keynesian and earlier New Classical theory. We conclude by rejecting the existence of a well-defined a short-run, negatively sloped Philips curve, a NAIRU, a unique general equilibrium, short and long-run, a vertical long-run Phillips curve, and the long-run neutrality of money.     

THE HIGH COST OF EATING: CAUSES OF INTERNATIONAL DIFFERENCES IN CONSUMER FOOD PRICES

Prices of food vary greatly among the developed countries, and some countries' food prices have been consistently far above the OECD average. The main explanation for food price difference is the extent of protection of agricultural products at the farm level. A second important influence is the level of VAT on food. A third is deviations of aggregate country price levels from the levels that would be predicted from their per capita incomes, presumably because of omitted characteristics of the countries' economies, such as, possibly, inefficient or monopolistic service sectors. In addition, there are occasional episodes of high or low price levels due to temporary factors affecting exchange rates.
The degree of protection of agricultural products is treated both as an exogenous factor and as an endogenous one. In the latter case, it is explained by climatic conditions and, presumably, the political influence of the agricultural sector or a general desire to retain an agricultural sector despite poor growing conditions.     

Foreign direct investment and growth in East Asia: lessons for Indonesia

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been important in the growth and global integration of developing economies. Both Northeast and Southeast Asia, especially the latter, have been part of this development, with increasing inflows of FDI and greater foreign participation in local economies. However, Indonesia has been an outlier within the region. Inflows of FDI have been lower to Indonesia than to other countries, especially in manufacturing, and they have been lower than could be expected from Indonesia's size, population and other country characteristics. We show that the inflows that have occurred have benefited Indonesia, and use the East Asian experience to identify measures that are likely to increase these flows. A relatively poor business environment, inefficient government institutions, low levels of education and poor infrastructure all seem to be important explanations for the low inflows of FDI to Indonesia.