Equilibrium pricing of contingent claims in tradable permit markets

We advance a model of the tradable permit market and derive a pricing formula for contingent claims traded in the market in a general equilibrium framework. It is shown that prices of such contingent claims exhibit significantly different properties from those in the ordinary financial markets. In particular, if the social cost function kinks at some level of abatement, the forward price, as well as the spot price, can be subject to the so‐called price spike. However, this price‐spike phenomenon can be weakened if a system of banking and borrowing is properly introduced. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:559–589, 2010     

Health Status Risks and the Efficiency of Social Security Systems

We studied the allocative efficiency of a social security system with earning tests focusing on the leisure–work choices of older men. Given empirical findings that health status and social security benefits are the most important determinants of such choices, we incorporated risks with respect to health status into an overlapping–generations model, and analysed how allocative efficiency was changed by the introduction of social security systems. It was found that the effects of a social security system can be broken down into particular categories and that a social security system improves efficiency when the pension system is small. JEL Classification Numbers: H55, I10, E40.     

The futures premium and rice market efficiency in prewar Japan

This article studies the interrelation between spot and futures prices in the two major rice markets in prewar Japan from the perspective of market efficiency. Applying a non‐Bayesian time‐varying model approach to the fundamental equation for spot returns and the futures premium, we detect when efficiency reductions in the two major rice markets occurred. We also examine how government interventions affected the rice markets in Japan, which colonized Taiwan and Korea before the Second World War, and argue that the function of rice futures markets crucially depended on the differences in the structure of rice spot markets. Initially the increased volume of imported rice of a different variety from domestic rice disrupted the rice futures markets. Then, government intervention in the rice futures markets failed to improve the disruption. Changes in colonial rice cropping successfully mitigated the disruption, and colonial rice was promoted in order to unify the different varieties of inland and colonial rice.     

A Bank Panic Model with a Bond Market

We have constructed a model of bank failure with monetary assets (bonds), adopting the overlapping-generations model. In it, monetary assets play a role in dispersing the credit crunch from a single bank run into a nationwide bank panic. As established by Diamond and Dybvig (1983), a single bank run is explained by a model without any monetary assets. In our model, however, the bond market is introduced to describe the process in which a bank run spreads. As a result, our model describes a general phenomenon—credit market failure—rather than a single bank run.
JEL classification numbers: G21, E40.     

Social Network Rebuilder: A Tool to Estimate a Social Network of Financial Crisis Propagation

The objective of this paper is to find a new method to estimate real social networks based on observed data collected by questionnaire surveys. Studies on social networks have been increasing in order to analyze social phenomena from a micro viewpoint. Most social phenomena can be explained by micro-level interactions among people. Spread of rumor and pandemics are typical example of micro interaction? However, there has not been much work on an analysis of real social networks based on observed data. This study tries to establish a methodology that exploits a genetic algorithm to rebuild a social network based on the data observed indirectly from real social networks. This paper introduces our proposed method, which allows us to rebuild a social network to some extent from degree distributions of a target real social network.     

Pricing Commodity Spread Options with Stochastic Term Structure of Convenience Yields and Interest Rates

The purpose of this research is to provide a valuation formula for commodity spread options. Commodity spread options are options written on the difference of the prices (spread) of two commodities. From the aspect of commodity contingent claims, it is considered that commodity spread options are difficult to evaluate with accuracy because of the existence of the convenience yield. Hence, the model of the convenience yield is the key factor to price commodity spread options. We use the concept of future convenience yields to develop the model that enriches the stochastic behavior of convenience yield. We also introduce Heath-Jarrow-Morton interest rate model to the valuation framework. This general model not only captures the mean reverting feature of the convenience yield, but also allows us to handle a very wide range of shape that the term structure of convenience yield can take. Therefore our model provides various types of models. The numerical analysis presented in this paper provides some unique features of commodity spread options in contrast to normal options. These characteristics have never been addressed in previous studies. Moreover, it suggests that the existing model overprice commodity spread options through neglecting the effect of interest rates.     

Privatization of Japanese telecommunications

This article describes the rationale for privatization of Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (NTT) and contrasts this with the motivation to privatize BT in the UK. The author goes on to outline the changes taking place as a result of the new legislation in Japan and the challenges facing NTT in the new environment.     

Rapid adaptation to near extinction in microbial experimental evolution

Theory indicates that responses to natural selection maximize immediate fitness benefits, leading to adaptations to current environmental conditions and those of the immediate past. Over a century of advances in theory, experiment, and observation have documented innumerable adaptations demonstrating the efficacy of natural selection to finely tune species to their respective environments. However, theory also suggests that natural selection is not a panacea, and that improvements in competitive ability do not necessarily increase long-term survival. Here we show that adaptation in experimental populations of microbes can dramatically reduce population sizes to near extinction levels in a stressful environment. The long-term potential for extinction differed from that identified in short-term ecological observations, but the eventual outcome is consistent with limitations on specific modes of adaptation. These results suggest that additional emphasis on the limitations of adaptation can provide insight on when and how improvements in competitive ability provide longer-term benefits.