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Although the number of regional trade arrangements (RTAs) among the lowest-income developing countries is surging, the literature on their welfare effects is still scarce, and the few that exist fail to provide conclusive results. Furthermore, these RTAs are dominated by countries with a small share of total exports destined for intraregional trade flows. Our study focuses on the welfare effects of RTAs (pertaining to trade creation and trade diversion) among this group of countries. We use a theoretically justified gravity model to estimate welfare effects, focusing on trade creation and trade diversion and deviating from the norm in related studies, accounting for heterogeneity in third countries. Using ECOWAS as a sample, we estimate welfare effects on 1992–2012 annual bilateral imports for 14 countries from 169 countries. Contrary to conventional expectations in the literature, we find that economic integration among small and relatively low-income countries that have a small share of total trade with each other is welfare-improving for the members as a group, for the majority of the individual member countries, and for some third countries. Accounting for heterogeneity in third countries reveals that an RTA among low-income countries has a particularly robust trade-creation effect. 相似文献
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This study provides further evidence of the inflationary efects of the rates of growth of money supply, gross domestic product, efective exchange rate, and imported inflation for Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia using quarterly data from 1964 to 1990. In addition, it examines the Granger causality between inflation and money supply as well as between inflation and the real exchange rate in the countries under consideration. Most of the results are consistent with extant theory and empirical evidence. 相似文献
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Mamit Deme 《The Review of Black Political Economy》1995,23(3):113-129
There is a scarcity of published statistical analysis that examines the impact of economic integration schemes in Africa.
This study fills the gap in the literature. The impact of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on trade flows
of its member countries is examined applying an econometric analysis. The parameters of a multivariate trade-flows model are
estimated using a panel data of the 1975 to 1991 period. The results suggest that the regional integration scheme has succeeded
in increasing trade flows between member countries. The general view in the literature is that African integration schemes
have failed to increase trade flows. 相似文献
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