Foreign inflows and economic growth: An emiprical study of the SAARC region

The study examines and highlights the impact of selected foreign inflows (aid, trade, FDI, debt and remittances) on the economic growth of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries. The existent literature lacks a comprehensive analysis of the SAARC countries as countries like Afghanistan, Bhutan and the Maldives have largely been ignored due to the shorter time periods of available data. The study is empirical in nature and utilizes panel data techniques on macroeconomic data for the period 2008–2015. Foreign aid and foreign direct investment are found to impact economic growth positively. Foreign debt and trade flows are found to adversely affect economic growth. No relationship is established between the flow of remittances and the economic growth of these countries. The obtained results are robust to different proxy variables and the addition of macroeconomic variables. For the first time, the study provides policy implications based on the data of all SAARC countries. The study recommends focusing on increasing the inflows of resources in the form of aid and foreign direct investment (FDI) from the developed world to achieve higher economic growth.     

Magic mirror in my hand … How trade mirror statistics can help us detect illegal financial flows

Misreporting tricks of different sorts applied to the transfer of goods between different countries are typically exploited by criminals worldwide for money laundering ends. The main international anti‐money laundering organisations started paying attention to this phenomenon, dubbed “trade‐based money laundering” (TBML), a long time ago, but the failure to develop appropriate analytical tools has reportedly dogged preventive actions. Nonetheless, literature has widely advocated the possibility that the analysis of inconsistencies in mirrored bilateral trade data could provide some help. By building on previous contributions in the field, this work sets up a model factoring in the main structural determinants of discrepancies between mirrored data concerning Italy's 2010 to 2013 external trade at a highly detailed (6‐digit) level of goods classification for each partner country. Point estimates of freight costs are used to net each observation of the corresponding cif/fob discrepancy. The regression estimates are then deployed in order to compute TBML risk indicators at a country/4‐digit product level. Based on the indicators, rankings of countries and product lines can be compiled, which may be used for a risk‐driven search of potential illegal commercial transactions.     

Spatial Metrics of the Technological Transfer: Analysis and Strategic Management

The Triple Helix thesis states that research laboratories and universities can play an enhanced role in innovation in increasingly knowledge-based societies. In fact the locus of industrial innovation is shifting towards networks focused on technological transfer from public research laboratories to firms. This scenario presents challenges for investigating the new behaviour of research laboratories and the measurement and evaluation of their scientific and technological activity. This study analyses how the variable 'space' affects an important activity carried out within these laboratories: the technological transfer. The purpose of this research is to: (1) construct indicators, called sensors, starting from the geographical neo-classical approach based on physical distance, for measuring and studying the spatial dynamics of technological transfer;(2) apply the metrics to case studies using data from three institutes of the Italian National Council of Research operating in an industrialised region in the north-west Italy. The sensors are useful for understanding the spatial behaviour both of the technological transfer process, and the strategy of research laboratories. Some management implications conclude the research.     

Inflation,interest and exchange rates in the transition1

Central and Eastern European economies have made extraordinary progress in their trade and exchange regimes. Surprisingly, instant convertibility was established for a great variety of exchange rate regimes. In spite of diversity, all these countries have followed a common pattern: severe initial undervaluation - the cost of speed and unrestricted trade - followed by rapid real revaluation and incipient protectionism. Since 1994 in many cases an embarrass de richesse has appeared: high capital inflows which are either inflationary or costly to sterilize. A major cause of these flows - or at any rate of the high cost of sterilization - is the presence of significant interest rate differentials higher than required to cover the risk of devaluation. These are the necessary consequence of a policy of positive real interest rates and of real revaluation from excessively undervalued exchange rates. Lower interest rates are recommended, both to stem financial capital inflows and to reduce the cost of their sterilization.     

Feature selection methods involving support vector machines for prediction of insolvency in non‐life insurance companies

We propose two novel approaches for feature selection and ranking tasks based on simulated annealing (SA) and Walsh analysis, which use a support vector machine as an underlying classifier. These approaches are inspired by one of the key problems in the insurance sector: predicting the insolvency of a non‐life insurance company. This prediction is based on accounting ratios, which measure the health of the companies. The approaches proposed provide a set of ratios (the SA approach) and a ranking of the ratios (the Walsh analysis ranking) that would allow a decision about the financial state of each company studied. The proposed feature selection methods are applied to the prediction the insolvency of several Spanish non‐life insurance companies, yielding state‐of‐the‐art results in the tests performed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Shareholder Value Creation in European M&As

This paper looks at the value generated to shareholders by the announcement of mergers and acquisitions involving firms in the European Union over the period 1998–2000. Cumulative abnormal shareholder returns due to the announcement of a merger reflect a revision of the expected value resulting from future synergies or wealth redistribution among stakeholders. Target firm shareholders receive on average a statistically significant cumulative abnormal return of 9% in a one‐month window centred on the announcement date. Acquirers’ cumulative abnormal returns are null on average. When distinguishing in terms of the geographical and sectoral dimensions of the merger deals, our main finding is that mergers in industries that had previously been under government control or that are still heavily regulated generate lower value than M&A announcements in unregulated industries. This low value creation in regulated industries becomes significantly negative when the merger involves two firms from different countries and is primarily due to the lower positive return that shareholders of the target firm enjoy upon the announcement of the merger. This evidence is consistent with the existence of obstacles (such as cultural, legal, or transaction barriers) to the successful conclusion of this type of transaction, which lessen the probability of the merger actually being completed as announced and, therefore, reduce its expected value.     

The toxic syndrome proceedings in Spain

The author, who has been counsel for the injured in the Spanish olive oil proceedings, reports about the health, political and legal issues of this the greatest tragic event in recent Spanish history. The complexity of the marketing processes has made it difficult to trace the criminal responsibilities of the traders of denatured oil. The civil servants in charge of control and supervision have so far been exempted from the proceedings. The author analyses the legal problems and makes suggestions as to the handling of such cases, including compensation.

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Die spanischen Strafverfahren im Zusammenhang mit dem Olivenölskandal

Zusammenfassung Der Bericht untersucht die Entstehung und Abwicklung des spanischen Strafverfahrens im Olivenölskandal. Im Jahre 1981 sind durch kontaminiertes Speiseöl nahezu 1,000 Menschen — meistens aus ärmeren Schichten herkommend — an schweren Vergiftungen gestorben und weitere tausend schwer erkrankt. Die Behörden haben nur zögerlich auf die größte Gesundheitskatastrophe in der spanischen Geschichte, das sog. síndrome tóxico, reagiert und das Strafverfahren gegen die verantwortlichen Händler erst nach langer Verzögerung, gegen die nachlässigen Beamten der Aufsichtsbehörden noch gar nicht eingeleitet. Die kaum aufklärbaren Wege der Vermarktung des vergifteten Öles machten es schwierig, die für die Opfer verantwortlichen Personen aufzufinden und ihre Schuld nachzuweisen. Der Autor, der als Vertreter der geschädigten Nebenkläger bzw. ihrer Familien das umfangreiche, noch nicht durch ein Urteil abgeschlossene Strafverfahren vor der audencia nacionál in Madrid mehrere Jahre aktiv begleitet hat, untersucht die rechtlichen und tatsächlichen Probleme einer kollektivrechtlichen Bewältigung des síndrome tóxico und macht Verbesserungsvorschläge, auch zur Opferentschädigung. Ein Postskrip berichtet über das nach Fertigstellung am 20. März gefällte Urteil ins Strafverfahren gegen die aceiteros.

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Ignacio de Uriarte Bofarull is a lawyer in Madrid and legal counsel to OCU (Organisación de los consumidores y usuarios). He has represented part of the victims as private attorney in the legal proceedings against the aceiteros. His address: Goya 99, Madrid — 9, Spain.     

Delegation and polarization of platforms in political competition

Summary. We consider a model of political competition among two ideological parties who are uncertain about the distribution of voters. The distinguishing feature of the model is that parties can delegate electoral decisions to candidates by nomination. It is shown that if the credible platform commitments of the candidates is feasible, then at least one of the parties nominates in equilibrium to a candidate who has an ideology that is more radical than the delegating party's ideology. In a variety of circumstances, this, in turn, yields a polarization of equilibrium policy choices of the candidates. It is thus argued formally here that strategic nomination of the candidates may well be one of the major reasons behind the well documented observation that the platforms associated with the political parties in two-party democracies are often surprisingly polarized. Received: January 10, 2002; revised version: May 8, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" We thank Alberto Alesina, Levent Ko?kesen, Antonio Merlo, Ronny Razin, Vijay Krishna, Alessandro Lizzeri, and seminar participants at Alicante, Columbia, Copenhagen, and NYU for helpful comments. We also thank an anonymous referee for its useful suggestions. A good fraction of this research was conducted while Ok was a visitor in the Department of Economics at University of Alicante; he thanks for the kind hospitality of this institution. We gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Education through grant CICYT BEC2001-0535 (Faulí-Oller) and BEC2001-0980 (Ortu?o-Ortín). Correspondence to:I. Ortu?o-Ortin     

Spanish Economic Review referees (2003-2004)

Spanish Economic Review referees (2003-2004)

Spanish Economic Review referees (2003-2004)