Methods versus substance: Measuring the effects of technology shocks

Calibration and modern (Bayesian) estimation methods for a neoclassical stochastic growth model are applied to make the case that the identification of key parameters, rather than quantitative methodologies per se, is responsible for empirical findings. For concreteness, the model is used to measure the contributions of technology shocks to the business cycle fluctuations of hours worked and output. Along the way, new insights are provided in the parameter identification associated with likelihood-based estimation, the sensitivity of likelihood-based estimation to the choice of structural shocks is assessed, and Bayesian model averaging is used to aggregate findings obtained from different DSGE model specifications.     

Cointegration analysis with structural breaks and deterministic trends: an application to the Canadian dollar

This article applies recent developments in cointegration analysis with structural breaks and deterministic trends to analyse the relationship between the real Canada–US exchange rate and commodity prices. Previous empirical studies disagree on whether these variables are cointegrated. The root of disagreement could be in the handling of deterministic trends and potential structural breaks. I find that even after controlling for these matters, the question of whether the real exchange rate and commodity prices are cointegrated for Canada remains unresolved.     

Is Canada an optimal currency area? An inflation targeting perspective

We propose a method, based on the currency union model of Galí and Monacelli ( 2008 ), to determine whether a region within an existing currency area belongs in the currency union. The method involves assessing the predictability of regional inflation rates at medium term horizons. We apply the method to the Canadian provinces and find that for all but Alberta there is little evidence of costs in terms of inflation arising from national monetary policy. For Alberta, the evidence suggests that they are not as well served by the inflation targeting framework and that a more flexible policy environment might improve inflation outcomes.     

Deposit insurance,remittances, and dollarization: Survey‐based evidence from a top remittance‐receiving country

The study uses a unique survey of remittance‐receiving individuals from Tajikistan to study the impact of policy awareness on consumer behavior. The results show that knowledge of deposit insurance encourages the use of formal channels for transmitting remittances and reduces dollarization. Given the size and importance of remittances in Tajikistan, improving financial literacy and better publicizing details of the social safety net may encourage a more frequent use of formal channels for transferring remittances and reduce reliance on foreign exchange for transaction purposes. This is likely to improve bank profitability, enhance financial stability, and improve access to finance.     

Home bias, distribution services and determinants of real exchange rates

This paper examines empirically how exogenous changes in the terms of trade affect the real exchange rate through the relative price of traded goods with Canada–US data. The relative price of traded goods is constructed using prices at the dock and retail prices. The first measure emphasizes the importance of home bias in consumption of traded goods. The second measure highlights the importance of distribution services required for consumption of traded goods. It is found that terms of trade shocks affect the relative price of traded goods using both measures. A possible interpretation of empirical findings is that home bias and distribution services are important for understanding the relative price of traded goods.