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1.
Successful policy planning depends to a large extent on being able to predict the consequences of alternative measures. In the case of agriculture, it is important to know how the future pattern of supply and demand in this sector will be affected by government action on specific issues such as farm price support, and by expected trends in macro-economic variables such as national incomes and population. This paper illustrates the application of a model of U.K. agriculture to the projection of changes in the production and consumption of food and agriculture products between now and 1975. The demand projections show the effect of important levies, and of joining the E.E.C, on future expenditure on food, while the supply projections show how the output of a number of agricultural commodities will be affected by adjusting farm prices towards E.E.C. levels. 相似文献
2.
Real Rates, Expected Inflation, and Inflation Risk Premia 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Martin D. D. Evans 《The Journal of Finance》1998,53(1):187-218
This paper studies the term structure of real rates, expected inflation, and inflation risk premia. The analysis is based on new estimates of the real term structure derived from the prices of index-linked and nominal debt in the U.K. I find strong evidence to reject both the Fisher Hypothesis and versions of the Expectations Hypothesis for real rates. The estimates also imply the presence of time-varying inflation risk premia throughout the term structure. 相似文献
3.
In this paper we compare the performance of balanced and unbalanced Likert scales of two core dimensions of political attitudes: left-right and libertarian-authoritarian values. The balanced scales control for the effects of acquiescence response sets, whereas the unbalanced scales do not. Using data from two panel surveys, balanced and unbalanced scales are compared for reliability, stability and validity both with each other, and with other measures of political ideology and values (left-right self-placement and postmaterialism). Both balanced and unbalanced versions of the left-right and libertarian-authoritarian Likert scales are found to be more stable and strongly associated with social characteristics than are the other measures. The unbalanced scales have slightly higher reliability than the balanced scales; they are also orthogonal, whereas balanced left-right and libertarian-authoritarian scales are moderately correlated. Unbalanced scales also display a slightly stronger relationship with social characteristics, but they do not differ in their pattern of association with political preferences. Differences between balanced and unbalanced scales are attributed to the effects of acquiescence bias. This needs to be considered when using the scales for substantive analyses, but its effects are not problematic. 相似文献
4.
David Evans 《Journal of Leadership Studies》2007,1(1):28-33
The emerging global leader must demonstrate specific competencies to succeed in the international marketplace. International leaders must be able to create strategic partnerships with individuals from different cultures. In this article, the author, after reviewing state of the art research in the field, describes the difficulties involved in leading multicultural teams in Franco–British collaborative ventures. Corporate human resource managers at British Petroleum and Vivendi Corporation in the United Kingdom and Eurotunnel Corporation in France revealed that cultural differences impact international leadership styles. 相似文献
5.
Anthony J. Evans 《The Review of Austrian Economics》2013,26(3):297-309
The aim of this paper is twofold: firstly to discuss the foundations of Grid-Group “Cultural Theory” and highlight the compatibility with Austrian economics, and secondly to apply this framework to the context of organisational culture. My claim is that “Corporate Cultural Theory” provides a rigorous and grounded social anthropological framework to take Austrian economics beyond its traditional uses and improve upon competing explanations of corporate culture. 相似文献
6.
Due to the increased cost and decreased availability of energy, many cities are developing experimental ridesharing programs. The evaluation of such public transportation programs often involves some form of benefit/cost analysis. In this paper we review a methodology proposed by Wagner for calculating ridesharing program benefits. We propose a modification for calculating vehicle-miles reduction and suggest a survey instrument for collecting the appropriate data. In addition, we present a surrogate measure which is simpler to compute and allows sensitivity analysis for incorporating certain intangible factors. Data from a survey conducted in the Greater Cincinnati area is used to illustrate the calculations. The results can be useful in evaluating other ridesharing programs. 相似文献
7.
Tourism is particularly prone to external shocks, which by their nature are unpredictable and need to be addressed through effective crisis management processes. The paper reviews the literature relating to crisis management in tourism and identifies and briefly critiques several models that have been developed to help managers in their strategic planning for such contingencies. The terrorist attacks of ‘9/11’ are used as an exemplar of the type of external shock that can lead to crisis if travel industry managers fail to take immediate and decisive action. This paper discusses the reactions of leading UK based tour operators to the terrorist attacks and a case study is presented to examine the reaction of a particular company to ‘9/11’ and to review the ‘turnaround’ strategies used. The crisis management process model is compared and contrasted with the steps actually undertaken at the company. It is evident that there are wider lessons for the travel industry including the need to: integrate crisis management with strategic planning processes, prepare detailed contingency plans, define decisional roles and responsibilities, and to retain a degree of flexibility. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
Ersin Ancel Ann T. Shih Sharon M. Jones Mary S. Reveley James T. Luxhøj Joni K. Evans 《Journal of Risk Research》2013,16(4):428-451
This paper illustrates the development of an object-oriented Bayesian network (OOBN) to integrate the safety risks contributing to an in-flight loss-of-control aviation accident. With the creation of a probabilistic model, inferences about changes to the states of the accident shaping or causal factors can be drawn quantitatively. These predictive safety inferences derive from qualitative reasoning to conclusions based on data, assumptions, and/or premises, and enable an analyst to identify the most prominent causal factors leading to a risk factor prioritization. Such an approach facilitates a mitigation portfolio study and assessment. The model also facilitates the computation of sensitivity values based on perturbations to the estimates in the conditional probability tables. Such computations lead to identifying the most sensitive causal factors with respect to an accident probability. This approach may lead to vulnerability discovery of emerging causal factors for which mitigations do not yet exist that then informs possible future R&D efforts. To illustrate the benefits of an OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight loss-of-control accident framework model is presented. 相似文献
9.
Shalini E. Perumpral Mark Evans Sanjay Agarwal Felix Amenkhienan 《Advances in accounting, incorporating advances in international accounting》2009,25(1):106-111
This paper addresses the adoption and applicability of International Accounting Standards (IAS) and International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), issued by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) to India. Specifically, the paper highlights some major areas where the country lacked harmonization with IAS in 1993 and the rapid congruence with IAS in the decade that followed. The attempt to achieve congruence with IAS appears to be more a by-product of the country's rapid economic growth rather than its catalyst. However, continued growth and the attraction of foreign capital to domestic ventures will depend on the transparency of the financial dealings. The Institute of the Chartered Accountants of India, (ICAI), India's standard setting body, is increasingly attempting to provide this transparency by revisions and additions to accounting standards, and by Exposure Drafts which aim to bring India more in line with International Financial Reporting Standards. 相似文献
10.