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排序方式: 共有10000条查询结果,搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
Rodríguez Gabriel Ojeda Cunya Junior A. Gonzáles Tanaka José Carlos 《Portuguese Economic Journal》2019,18(2):107-123
Portuguese Economic Journal - A set of RLS-type models with ARMA and ARFIMA dynamics is estimated and compared in a forecasting exercise with ARFIMA, GARCH and FIGARCH models. It is an extension of... 相似文献
2.
The Review of Austrian Economics - A key insight in Hayek’s thought is the importance of so-called “local knowledge” in economic activity. In The Fatal Conceit, he states that... 相似文献
3.
4.
Peter C. Young 《International Journal of Forecasting》2018,34(2):314-335
The main objective of this paper it to model the dynamic relationship between global averaged measures of Total Radiative Forcing (RTF) and surface temperature, measured by the Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA), and then use this model to forecast the GTA. The analysis utilizes the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) approach to the modelling and forecasting where, in this application, the unobserved component model includes a novel hybrid Box-Jenkins stochastic model in which the relationship between RTF and GTA is based on a continuous time transfer function (differential equation) model. This model then provides the basis for short term, inter-annual to decadal, forecasting of the GTA, using a transfer function form of the Kalman Filter, which produces a good prediction of the ‘pause’ or ‘levelling’ in the temperature rise over the period 2000 to 2011. This derives in part from the effects of a quasi-periodic component that is modelled and forecast by a Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) relationship and is shown to be correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index. 相似文献
5.
Aaron H. Anglin Jeremy C. Short Will Drover Regan M. Stevenson Aaron F. McKenny Thomas H. Allison 《Journal of Business Venturing》2018,33(4):470-492
We extend the entrepreneurship literature to include positive psychological capital — an individual or organization's level of psychological resources consisting of hope, optimism, resilience, and confidence — as a salient signal in crowdfunding. We draw from the costless signaling literature to argue that positive psychological capital language usage enhances crowdfunding performance. We examine 1726 crowdfunding campaigns from Kickstarter, finding that entrepreneurs conveying positive psychological capital experience superior fundraising performance. Human capital moderates this relationship while social capital does not, suggesting that costly signals may, at times, enhance the influence of costless signals. Post hoc analyses suggest findings generalize across crowdfunding types, but not to IPOs. 相似文献
6.
Stephen G. Dimmock William C. Gerken Zoran Ivković Scott J. Weisbenner 《Journal of Financial Economics》2018,127(1):113-135
Differences in accrued gains and investors’ tax-sensitivity induce variation in a capital gains lock-in effect across mutual funds even for the same stock at the same time. Exploiting this variation, we show this effect influences funds’ governance decisions: higher capital gains decrease the likelihood a fund exits prior to contentious votes and increase the likelihood a fund votes against management. Consistent with tax motivation, these findings are concentrated among funds with tax-sensitive investors. Further, high aggregate capital gains across funds holding a stock predict a higher likelihood management loses a vote and a lower likelihood a contentious vote is proposed. 相似文献
7.
Patrick Minford Michael Wickens Yongdeng Xu 《Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics》2019,81(1):178-194
We propose a way of testing a subset of equations of a DSGE model. The test draws on statistical inference for limited information models and the use of indirect inference to test DSGE models. Using the numerical small sample distribution of our test for two subsets of equations of the Smets–Wouters model we show that the test has accurate size and good power in small samples, and better power than using asymptotic distribution theory. In a test of the Smets–Wouters model on US Great Moderation data, we reject the specification of the wage‐price but not the expenditure sector. This points to the wage‐price sector as the source of overall model rejection. 相似文献
8.
Hilliard Jitka Jahera John S. Zhang Haoran 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2019,53(4):1165-1193
Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - We examine how changes in dividend policy in 2008 as the financial crisis was unfolding influenced firm risk-adjusted returns in the following years.... 相似文献
9.
AbstractTraditional warranty analysis focuses on the reliability of a product and offers warranty designs that compensate a consumer if the item fails. We introduce the concept of a performance-based warranty (PBW) that guarantees that a product will operate at or above some baseline level of performance, such as a minimum energy efficiency for an appliance. We illustrate how consumer behavior can change in the presence of a PBW and define the parameters for which a manufacturer may increase revenue. Finally, we present an algorithm to solve for the optimal PBW design given a consumer’s belief about the expected performance of the product. 相似文献
10.
Joseph Amankwah-Amoah Zaheer Khan Ellis L.C. Osabutey 《International Business Review》2021,30(3):101802
The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected the fortunes of multiple companies around the globe. Accordingly, questions are increasingly being asked about how organizations can revitalize during and after a crisis. Yet, we have limited understanding of how organizations renew themselves during crises over time. We explore this question through the lens and examination of two South-Asian airlines: Pakistan International Airlines and Sri Lankan Airlines. The cases offer important insights into the reasons behind underperformance of state-controlled enterprises and renewal activities. We shed light on strategic renewal (SR) in the wake of increasing liberalization and deregulations in the global airline industry. To this end, we propose a four-stage approach towards renewing such underperforming organizations to respond effectively to black swan events and external shocks. 相似文献