Benchmark-based evaluation of portfolio performance: a characterization

Benchmarking is a universal practice in portfolio management and is well-studied in the optimal portfolio selection literature. This paper derives axiomatic foundations of the relative return, which underlies a benchmark-based evaluation of portfolio performance. We show that the existence of a benchmark naturally arises from a few basic axioms and is tightly linked to the economic theory. Our method relies on the use of both axiomatic and economic approaches to index number theory. We also analyze the problem of optimal portfolio selection under complete uncertainty about a future price system, where the objective function is the relative return.     

Some reflections on past and future of nonlinear dynamics in economics and finance

This paper offers an overview of the literature on the economic and financial applications of theory of nonlinear dynamics, especially bifurcation theory. After a short introductory discussion of the first nonlinear dynamic models in social sciences and the economic relevance of the zoo of bifurcations and complicated dynamics that such models can generate, we present an overview of the literature on nonlinear dynamic models in the areas of underdevelopment, environmental poverty traps, the management of common goods, industrial organization and financial markets. The review of the literature is enriched by reflections and ideas for future research.     

The role of local embeddedness and non-local knowledge in entrepreneurial activity

The article investigates whether the history of individuals’ spatial relocation has an impact on their propensity to perform an entrepreneurial entry and post-entry performance of firms they start. By looking at entrepreneurs in the IT services sector in Swedish non-core regions between 1991 and 2010, the article investigates the interaction between individuals’ embeddedness in local networks and their exposure to external knowledge accumulation opportunities across different geographical settings, as well as its impact on their entrepreneurial activities. The results of the analysis suggest that individuals with broad spatial relocation histories are more likely to start IT firms in non-core regions, which, in turn, may be expected to survive longer. It is, therefore, claimed that non-local knowledge accumulated through spatial relocation is an important complement to embeddedness in local networks in non-core regions. This complementarity is further related to the evolution of the IT services sector over time.     

Watching out for regional separatism in the Russian far East: Ideological cueing of territorial security,economic incentives and cultural identity

Why has regional separatism failed to materialise in the post‐Soviet Russian Far East despite the region's remoteness from Russia's European heartland, its proximity to the Pacific Rim economies, the decline of economic support from Moscow, and a ‘frontier’ culture of resistance to Moscow's rule? Focusing on political developments in Primorskii Krai ‐ the key frontier province in the Russian Far East ‐ the study finds that territorial security, economic incentives, and cultural identity affect proclivities for regional separatism selectively, depending on ideological and institutional constraints in which centre‐periphery relations are embedded. In the absence of ideological commitments and enforceable institutional rales and norms, centre‐periphery conflicts devolve into economic bargaining and rule‐manipulation by elites for quick material gains. The changing ideological context amidst post‐Soviet institutional transition in Russia provide the most consistent explanation of conflict dynamic between Primorskii Krai's leaders and Moscow, of the non‐emergence of regional separatism, and of gross economic mismanagement of the province.     

Measuring the Extent of Structural Remedy in Section 7 Settlements: Was the US DOJ Successful in the 1990s?

This paper suggests an innovative measure of structural relief obtained in a typical Section 7 settlement. The fraction of competitive overlap subject to divestiture as a condition of the settlement is modeled as a function of merger-specific efficiencies, the proportion of the deal held “hostage” to antitrust review, the merger’s anticompetitive potential, and other factors. The model is applied to data on 86 recent Justice Department cases covering the period 1990–2003 and to the subsample of 1990s cases. All data are collected from publicly available documents only. The government is found to secure larger divestitures when the cost to the acquirer of delaying the settlement is high. The resulting estimates are used to predict several out-of-sample observations. I would like to thank the General Editor and two anonymous referees for many helpful suggestions on earlier drafts of this paper. The remaining errors are mine.     

Prizes and patents: Using market signals to provide incentives for innovations

We consider environments in which agents other than innovator receive the signals about the quality of innovation. We study whether mechanisms can be found which exploit market information to provide appropriate incentives for innovation. If such mechanisms are used, the innovator has incentives to manipulate market signals. We show that if an innovator cannot manipulate market signals, then the efficient levels of innovation can be uniquely implemented without deadweight losses – for example, by using prizes. Patents are necessary if the innovator can manipulate market signals. For an intermediate case of costly signal manipulation, both patents and prizes may be optimal.     

Pro forma disclosures,audit fees,and auditor resignations

The disclosure of non-GAAP (pro forma) earnings numbers by managers in the post-SOX era continues to attract attention from regulators, media, and researchers. However, there is limited empirical evidence on how auditors view clients that emphasize pro forma earnings over GAAP earnings. We study the extent to which audit fees and auditor resignations are associated with opportunistic non-GAAP disclosures. We find that during the pre-SOX period, optimistic pro forma differences, measured using either IBES actual earnings or hand-collected pro forma earnings, are associated with higher audit fees and a higher likelihood of auditor resignations. Additional results indicate that auditors seem to be more concerned with non-GAAP earnings disclosures in the post-SOX period.     

The term structure of inflation expectations

We use information in the term structure of survey-based forecasts of inflation to estimate a factor hidden in the nominal yield curve. We construct a model that accommodates forecasts over multiple horizons from multiple surveys and Treasury real and nominal yields by allowing for differences between risk-neutral, subjective, and objective probability measures. We establish that model-based inflation expectations are driven by inflation, output, and one latent factor. We find that this factor affects inflation expectations at all horizons but has almost no effect on the nominal yields; that is, the latent factor is hidden. We show that this hidden factor is not related to either current and past inflation or the standard set of macro variables studied in the literature. Consistent with the theoretical property of a hidden factor, our model outperforms a standard macro-finance model in its forecasting of inflation and yields.