Loan Supply Shocks and the Business Cycle

This paper provides empirical evidence on the role played by loan supply shocks over the business cycle in the euro area, the UK and the USA from 1980 to 2011 by estimating time‐varying parameter vector autoregression models with stochastic volatility and identifying these shocks with sign restrictions consistent with the recent macroeconomic literature. The evidence suggests that in all three economic areas loan supply shocks appear to have a significant effect, with clear signs of an increasing impact over the past few years. Moreover, the role of loan supply shocks is estimated to be particularly important during recessions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MVM's Nonlinear Internationalization: A Case Study

This article aims to contribute to the international and East-West business literature by discussing the nature of nonlinear internationalization based on a case study of an Italian firm, Meccanica Valle Metauro S.r.l., that had activities in Central and Eastern Europe and other countries and by identifying causes of nonlinearities. The study concludes that nonlinear internationalization may be caused by different internal and external factors and actors; that it can occur once or several times; that foreign market exit may be temporary (followed by re-entry) and permanent; and that de-internationalization does not always mean a failure for the firm.     

Religion and political economy in Saint-Simon

Abstract

The project of Henri Saint-Simon (1760–1825) was to complete the French Revolution by a social change in order to eliminate the so-called “feudal-military” system and to bring about a new society which he named “the industrial system”. Everything had to be changed, including religion and its relation to political economy. In this paper, I examine: (i) the recurring problem of religion, raised by Saint-Simon as early as his first text; (ii) the emergence of the economic problem of identifying production with politics; (iii) and finally, the metamorphosis of the Christian religion into a moral and industrial religion.     

Estimating potential output and the output gap for the euro area: a model-based production function approach

This paper provides an analysis of multivariate unobserved components models for the estimation of potential output and the output gap in the euro area. Bivariate models of output and inflation and multivariate model-based implementations of the production function approach are considered; according to the latter potential output is derived from the permanent components of the factors of production consistent with stable inflation, whereas the output gap results from the combination of the transitory components. This approach allows to measure the contribution of the various factors of production to potential output growth, and to assess the reliability of the output gap estimates. Various alternative statistical specifications for the separation of trend and cycle are considered entertaining different economic hypotheses. The paper also provides an assessment of the reliability of the alternative output gap estimates and analyses their predictive validity by means of a rolling forecast exercise that provides an evaluation of the capability to forecast future inflation. A preliminary version of this paper appeared as EUI working paper ECO2002/09 and was presented at the European Central Bank, the European University Institute, the Growth and Business Cycles in Theory and Practice conference, Manchester UK, 20–21 June 2002, the Common Features in Rio conference, Rio de Janeiro, 29–31 July 2002. We thank the participants, Michael Artis, Gerard Korteweg, Geoff Kenny, Neale Kennedy, Manuel da Mota Freitas Martins, Gerard Ruenstler, and three anonymous Referees for useful discussions and valuable comments. The paper was largely written while the first author was acting as consultant for the ECB. The views expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. All correspondence to Alberto Musso.     

The U-Shaped Productivity Dynamics of French Exporters

We use data on French manufacturing firms to reveal that the productivity dynamics of new exporters is typically U-shaped. Prior to entry, firm productivity temporarily decreases, then recovers contemporaneously with entry, as the benefits from sales to foreign markets accrue. We show that the U-shaped pattern is more pronounced for intensively exporting firms and for firms operating in capital-intensive or high-technology sectors. This finding suggests that firms prepare to become exporters through prior specific investments and learning-to-export mechanisms. We then point to the limitations of studies that focus only on date of entry to exporting to discriminate between self-selection versus learning mechanisms. JEL no.  F10, F14, L60     

开发新产品的成功之道

你的企业感到开发新产品困难重重吗？如果确实如此,你可以尝试向那些行家里手们学习。 在对北美和欧洲28家企业的300多名员工进行调查后,我们发现,那些具有最佳产品开发记录的企业在三件事情上比它们不太成功的同行做得更好：它们在项目早期就确立了对项目目标的清晰认识;它们在自己的团队中培育出了强有力的项目文化;它们在整个项目开发过程中,始终与客户保持着密切联系。     

Growth accounting for the euro area

This article is concerned with the estimation of euro area potential output growth and its decomposition according to the sources of growth. The growth accounting exercise is based on a multivariate structural time series model which combines the decomposition of total output according to the production function approach with price and wage equations that embody Phillips-type relationships linking inflation and nominal wage dynamics to the output gap and cyclical unemployment, respectively. Assuming a Cobb?CDouglas technology with constant returns to scale, potential output results from the combination of the trend levels of total factor productivity (TFP) and factor inputs, capital and labour (hours worked), which is decomposed into labour intensity (average hours worked), the employment rate, the participation rate and population of working age. The nominal variables (prices and wages) play an essential role in defining the trend levels of the components of potential output, as the latter should pose no inflationary pressures on prices and wages. The structural model is further extended to allow for the estimation of potential output growth and the decomposition according to the sources of growth at different horizons (long run, medium run and short run); in particular, we propose and evaluate a model-based approach to the extraction of the low-pass component of potential output growth at different cut-off frequencies. The approach has two important advantages: the signal extraction filters have an automatic adaptation property at the boundaries of the sample period, so that the real-time estimates do not suffer from what is often referred to as the ??end-of-sample bias??. Secondly, it is possible to assess the uncertainty of potential output growth estimates with different degrees of smoothness.     

Small Italian wine producers’ internationalization: The role of network relationships in the emergence of late starters

This paper aims to examine how network relationships influenced the internationalization of small Italian wine producers characterized as late starters. It is based on four cases. It shows that foreign tourists helped these firms to expand internationally: they identified business opportunities, suggested firms to contact importers, contacted importers themselves to get access to the same wine in their home country or provided foreign market knowledge. Thus, small wine producers should pay more attention to attracting tourists and creating network relationship with them. Several other network relationships ? for instance, with friends and relatives, Italian expatriates and other business partners ? also advanced the case firms’ internationalization. Moreover, they were affected by lack of time and resources, language barriers and other factors. Thus, all these aspects also need managers’ attention. Furthermore, they should take a more strategic approach towards internationalization and understand that not all internationalization attempts succeed or result in continuous orders.     

Competition,Innovation And Increasing Returns ∗

When firms enjoy increasing returns in presence of a high rate of innovation, competition may obtain due to the continuous changes in demand and cost conditions even when there is no differentiation and the products of competing firms are essentially homogeneous. In this paper we intend to provide theoretical structure to this conjecture, and to confirm it by carrying out a simulation analysis in the case of two firms competing on the market.     

The impact of financial constraints on firm survival and growth

We propose a new approach for identifying and measuring the degree of financial constraint faced by firms and use it to investigate the effect of financial constraints on firm survival and development. Using panel data on French manufacturing firms over the 1996–2004 period, we find that (1) financial constraints significantly increase the probability of exiting the market, (2) access to external financial resources has a positive effect on the growth of firms in terms of sales, capital stock and employment, (3) financial constraints are positively related with productivity growth in the short-run. We interpret this last result as the sign that constrained firms need to cut costs in order to generate the resources they cannot raise on financial markets.