The Effect of Nominal Demand Shocks on Manufacturing Output: Evidence from Disaggregated Australian Data*

The menu costs model predicts that during times of rapid inflation firms are less likely to vary output in response to changes in nominal aggregate demand. This paper tests the proposition using a disaggregated sample of Australian three-digit ASIC manufacturing industries. The results show that a significant number of Australian industries exhibit behaviour that is consistent with this prediction. In addition, the results show that the variability of inflation and changes to the import penetration ratio also influence the response of output to nominal demand changes.     

Cigarette and Tobacco Consumption: Have Anti-Smoking Policies Made a Difference?

The consumption of cigarette and tobacco products in Australia is modelled using the rational addiction theory of Becker and Murphy, augmented by data on advertising, regulatory intervention, and demographic factors. Over the past 35 years, price (including tobacco taxes), real income, and demographic effects explain most of the variation in tobacco consumption. Advertising by tobacco companies has had a relatively small direct effect on consumption. Work-place smoking bans and health warnings on cigarette packs have had a relatively minor impact, while anti-smoking advertising and bans on electronic media advertising have had no detectable direct effect.     

Substitution Between Private and Public Consumption in Australia*

Large increases in the private sector's savings ratio during a period of rapid growth in the relative size of the public sector has led to the suggestion that substitution between private and public consumption may be an important fcature of the Australian economy (Clements 1979). In this paper, empirical estimates are presented which indicate that no such substitution exists The estimates are derived from a theoretical model of consumption which is based on inter-temporal optimization in a stochastic environment. The estimates also suggest that private sector consumption behaviour is consistent with the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and Ricardian equivalence     

IDENTIFYING INTERDEPENDENCIES BETWEEN SOUTH-EAST ASIAN STOCK MARKETS: A NON-LINEAR APPROACH

This paper considers the question of how shocks to returns are transmitted across South-East Asian equity markets. Using a reasonably general statistical model our results suggest that a negative-return innovation leads to higher levels of domestic volatility than a positive innovation of equal magnitude. There is strong evidence that returns shocks are transmitted across markets, impacting not only on prices, but also on volatility. Any shock, positive or negative, serves to raise volatility.