Land Transport for Export: The Effects of Cost, Time, and Uncertainty in Sub-Saharan Africa

In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), inland export transport costs and time delays are much higher for landlocked countries, vary substantially between different geographic corridors, and exhibit substantial uncertainty. Unit costs and costs of time for land transport of exports are high for many agricultural products relative to metals and other high-value products. We illustrate systemic uncertainty in land and maritime transport for exporting by use of simulation. Relationships among uncertainty, infrastructure quality, and other features of logistics systems are highly non-linear, and can be potentially used to identify priorities for trade facilitation.     

Common trends and common cycles among interest rates of the G7-countries

Both, from a macroeconomic modeling perspective, as well as for a policy point of view, there has recently been a renewed interest in the cyclical and long-run comovement of interest rates. In this paper we re-investigate the long- and short-run comovements in the G7-countries by conducting tests for cointegration, common serial correlation and codependence with nominal and real interest rates, using quarterly data from 1975 to 2010. Overall, we find only little evidence of comovements. Common trends are occasionally observed, but the majority of interest rates are not cointegrated. Although some evidence for codependence of higher order is found in the pre-Euro area sample, common cycles appear to exist only in rare cases. We argue that some earlier, more positive findings are difficult to reconcile due to differing assumptions about the underlying stochastic properties of interest rates. We conclude that they cannot be generalized for all interest rates, time periods, and reasonable alternative estimation procedures.     

TO PURCHASE OR TO POOL: DOES IT MATTER?

The recent decision by the Financial Accounting Standards Board to eliminate pooling accounting for acquisitions raises several important questions: Does the choice of “purchase” or “pooling” affect firm valuations? How do differences in goodwill and its amortization affect cash flow and price/earnings multiples? How has the market reacted to purchase and pooling acquisition announcements? The authors' new research suggests that the market already judges mergers and acquisitions based on fundamental economics, not on GAAP earnings. In a study of 1,442 large acquisitions in the 1990s, the authors find that, in the first month after the announcement of pooled transactions, the acquirer's stock fell by an average of almost 4%. By contrast, the market reaction to purchase acquisitions was extremely favorable, with a 3% positive abnormal return in the first month. But what about the ongoing effect of goodwill amortization on values? In the second part of their two-part study, the authors report that the P/E multiples of acquirers reporting increases in goodwill amortization increase significantly following the acquisitions, and that the increases in P/E are large enough to offset the negative impact of goodwill amortization on earnings. Moreover, the authors also tested for and were unable to find any evidence of a market bias against balance sheet goodwill as an indicator of future amortization charges. The authors thus conclude that changes in accounting for acquisitions should not be a concern for acquirers, and that the elimination of pooling should have no lasting impact on corporate strategic decisions or M&A activity. Nevertheless, they do suggest that companies with significant goodwill would benefit from making their amortization transparent in their financial statements by, for example, breaking out amortization from depreciation on their income statements.     

Capital market equilibrium in a mean-lower partial moment framework

In this paper, we develop a Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) using a mean-lower partial moment framework. We explicitly derive formulae for the equilibrium values of risky assets that hold for arbitrary probability distributions. We show that when the probability distributions and portfolio returns are either normal, stable (with the same characteristic exponent between 1 and 2 and the same skewness parameter, not necessarily zero), or Student-t distributions, our CAPM reduces to the traditional mean-scale CAPM's. Consequently, since the traditional equilibrium models are special cases of our model, the mean-lower partial moment framework is guaranteed to do at least as well in explaining market data. As an application of our theory, we derive an acceptance criterion for capital investment projects and note that corporate finance theory results developed, for example, in the well-known mean- variance framework carry over to the mean-lower partial moment framework.