In scenario planning, causal mapping has long been used as a means to elicit the worldviews of multiple experts, facilitate discussion, and challenge and improve mental models. Large and complex causal maps, however, are difficult to analyze. This paper proposes a novel method for scenario building, based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, that combines intuitive, cognitive mapping techniques with formal, quantitative analysis. The proposed method helps scenario planners to integrate the qualitative and partial knowledge of multiple individuals and overcome information processing limitations. The feasibility of the proposed approach is investigated with two scenario studies on solar photovoltaic panels. 相似文献
This article examines how an integrated least-cost implementation of the Kyoto Protocol in the United States would affect U.S. competitiveness and jobs. Drawing on previous work, the authors analyze integrated emission reduction strategies based on a $50/ton carbon tax (including border tax adjustments), a payroll tax cut, energy-productivity–oriented market reforms, and international flexibility mechanisms. This policy portfolios is compared to conventional approaches that omit market and fiscal reforms. Input-output data are used to estimate the impact on export prices of goods and services produced in the United States. Similar data are used to translate changes in GDP and energy production into employment impacts in energy and nonenergy sectors. The costs of providing transitional assistance for workers in the coal industry are compared to the GDP benefits of a profitable Kyoto strategy. The analysis shows that relative to purchasing international emission rights, productivity-raising domestic market, institutional, and fiscal reforms offer much broader advantages for tradE-exposed U.S. industries. Though allowance purchases alone increase export prices of U.S. manufactured goods and services, an integrated no-regrets strategy reduces export prices for the large majority of U.S. industries and limits the impact of climate protection policies on the few most energy-intensive basic materials industries to very small levels. Relative to the baseline, an integrated least-cost implementation of the Kyoto target increases economy-wide employment levels by several hundred thousand jobs in 2010. 相似文献
Combining debt reduction with halting deforestation seems to be an attractive way of solving two urgent global problems at the same time at hardly any cost. But this view may be overly optimistic. What are the advantages and the drawbacks of debt-for-nature swaps? Are there any better alternatives? 相似文献
ABSTRACTThe notion of an ‘orthodox core–heterodox periphery’ structure and the extent of interdisciplinary links have been widely discussed, and partially investigated bibliometrically, within economic discourse. We extend this research by applying tools from social network analysis to citation data of three economics departments located in Vienna, two mainstream and one non-mainstream, to assess their relative citation patterns. We show that both mainstream economics departments follow the asserted core–periphery pattern and have a mono-disciplinary research focus, while the citation network of the non-mainstream department has a polycentric structure and is both more heterodox and interdisciplinary. These findings suggest that discussions about the future of heterodox economics should pay more attention to the organizational level and seek allies from other disciplines. 相似文献
This article identifies and corrects shortcomings in recent modeling studies on the economics of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. The major assessments of the Kyoto Protocol—by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the Clinton White House Council of Economic Advisers, the U.S. Department of Energy Interlaboratory Working Group, and the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum—are found to be seriously incomplete. Each study omits one or several of four major cost-reducing policy options, resulting in cost estimates that are far too pessimistic. In the present study, these shortcomings are overcome through the integrated evaluation of all major cost-cutting policy options within a coherent least-cost framework. Three domestic policies—a national carbon cap and permit trading program, productivity-enhancing market reforms and technology programs, and recycling of permit auction revenues into economically advantageous tax cuts—are combined with international emissions allowance trading. This analysis shows that an integrated least-cost strategy for mitigating U.S. greenhouse gas emissions would produce an annual net output gain of roughly 0.4% of GDP in 2010 and about 0.9% of GDP in 2020. On a cumulative net present value basis, the United States would gain $250 billion by 2010 and $600 billion by 2020. International flexibility mechanisms (including emissions trading) are of only secondary significance in realizing these productivity, output, and welfare gains. 相似文献
Economic equilibrium models have been inspired by analogies to stationary states in classical mechanics. To extend these mathematical analogies from constrained optimization to constrained dynamics, we formalize economic (constraint) forces and economic power in analogy to physical (constraint) forces and the reciprocal value of mass. Agents employ forces to change economic variables according to their desire and their power to assert their interest. These ex-ante forces are completed by constraint forces from unanticipated system constraints to yield the ex-post dynamics. The differential-algebraic equation framework seeks to overcome some restrictions inherent to the optimization approach and to provide an out-of-equilibrium foundation for general equilibrium models. We transform a static Edgeworth box exchange model into a dynamic model with procedural rationality (gradient climbing) and slow price adaptation, and discuss advantages, caveats, and possible extensions of the modeling framework.
The games in which large amount of money is involved are always called into question about the existence of the possibility to manipulate the game for an immediate benefit. Lottery system is not an exception in this regard; moreover, it is a subject of rumours that the game is not as fair as it is pretended to be. After studying the advantages and drawbacks of conventional lottery systems, the authors are proposing an e-lottery system based on anonymous signatures. Even though the proposal is using electronic signatures, which imply complex calculus and the possession of digital certificates for each player, the proposed system compensates these drawbacks by increasing trust and confidence of both the players and the lottery organizer. This will lead to more players participating in the lottery, which translates to more revenue for the lottery and larger prizes for the players. 相似文献
The performance on small and medium-size samples of several techniques to solve the classification problem in discriminant analysis is investigated. The techniques considered are two widely used parametric statistical techniques (Fisher's linear discriminant function and Smith's quadratic function), and a class of recently proposed nonparametric estimation techniques based on mathematical programming (linear and mixed-integer programming). A simulation study is performed, analyzing the relative performance of the above techniques in the two-group case, for various small sample sizes, moderate group overlap and across six different data conditions. Training samples as well as validation samples are used to assess the classificatory performance of the techniques. The degree of group overlap and sample sizes selected for analysis in this paper are of interest in practice because they closely reflect conditions of many real data sets. The results of the experiment show that Smith's nonlinear quadratic function tends to be superior on the training samples and validation samples when the variances–covariances across groups are heterogeneous, while the mixed-integer technique performs best on the training samples when the variances–covariances are equal, and on validation samples with equal variances and discrete uniform independent variables. The mixed-integer technique and the quadratic discriminant function are also found to be more sensitive than the other techniques to the sample size, giving disproportionally inaccurate results on small samples. 相似文献
Using hourly and weekly wages from the Canadian Labour Force Survey from 2000 until 2018, workers were separated into full-time and part-time and the following striking observation was documented. The overall gender wage gap is larger than either the full-time pay gap or the part-time pay gap, even after controlling for detailed personal and job characteristics. This result is a consequence of two findings: (i) part-time wages are lower than full-time wages, and (ii) the majority of part-time workers are women. In aggregation, this brings down the average female wage, leading to a larger aggregate gender wage gap. This was further linked to a differential selection by gender into full-time and part-time work, with women of higher earnings potential being overrepresented in the pool of part-time workers, resulting in no gender pay gap in the part-time worker category. Policies targeted at encouraging full-time employment for women should therefore reduce the gender wage gap.