Asymmetric cointegration with threshold adjustment model of exchange rates and the trade balance in Turkey

This paper aims to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship between the trade balance and exchange rates in Turkey using the asymmetric error correction model with threshold cointegration. The results provide new evidence for the asymmetric long-run relationship between the trade balance and exchange rates. Besides, deviations from the long-run equilibrium due to a relative increase in real exchange rates have a lower speed of adjustment in comparison to the deviations caused by a relative decrease in real exchange rates.     

The effects of exchange rate risk on economic performance: the Turkish experience

This study examines the effects of real exchange rate risk on the economic performance for an emerging, small open economy: Turkey. When the ratios of the total foreign exchange liabilities of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) to: (1) total reserves; (2) the CBRT's reserves; and (3) the CBRT's total Turkish lira liabilities are taken proxy of exchange rate risk, the empirical evidence suggests that the increase in exchange rate risk causes a depreciation in the real exchange rate, an increase in prices and a decrease in output.     

A league of their own: services exporters – a developing country perspective

This paper provides a firm-level portrait of services exporters along with goods exporters in a developing country. Current findings of firm-level services trade literature suggest that the stylized facts of goods trade apply to services trade as well for a set of developed countries. This paper investigates if similar results hold for a developing country, Turkey, for the period 2003–2008. Most results lend support to the evidence found in the previous literature. However, the analysis of Turkish data shows that firms that export both goods and services are larger than those exporting goods or services only while multinationals that sell only goods are bigger than multinationals exporting both goods and services or those exporting only services.     

The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on exports: A sectoral analysis for Turkey

This paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on disaggregated data comprising 21 exporting sectors (BEC classification) in Turkey. Building on a theoretical model that decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components, the empirical investigation traces the effects through demand and supply channels. Anticipated exchange rate appreciation, in line with movements in underlying fundamentals, has significant adverse effects, contracting export growth across many sectors. Random fluctuations in the exchange rate, deviations around steady-state equilibrium, have asymmetric effects on sectoral export growth. The evidence indicates increased contraction of export demand to currency appreciation over time. In contrast, the effect of depreciation in stimulating export growth has lost momentum over time. While exchange rate fluctuations had a positive net effect on export growth before 2003, the net effect is negative for the post-2002 period. The implications are anticipated movement in the exchange rate guides export plans, signaling the importance of managing fundamentals to anchor rational forecasts. Moreover, less variability of the exchange rate is likely to improve sectoral export growth in Turkey over time.     

Persistency of Turkish export shocks: a quantile autoregression (QAR) approach

This study analyzes the persistency of total and disaggregated Turkish exports for different shock magnitudes using the quantile autoregression (QAR) method in line with Koenker and Xiao (J Am Stat Assoc 99:775–787, 2004). The results suggest that the persistence of shocks are not similar across different quantiles of Total Exports and disaggregated export sectors, indicating an asymmetry in the case of negative and positive shocks across different export sectors. The persistency behavior of Total Exports as well as Food and Beverages, Chemicals, Basic Metals, Raw Materials, Motor Vehicles and Radio & TV exports are asymmetric to negative versus positive shocks, which cannot be captured by traditional unit root tests. Thus, sound interpretation of QAR results is necessary for policy makers to identify shock characteristics and thereby pursue appropriate policies for overcoming adverse impacts on the economy.     

Corruption, decentralization and yardstick competition

Several empirical studies have found a negative relationship between corruption and the decentralization of the powers to tax and spend. In this paper we explain this phenomenon using a model of Yardstick Competition. Using data on federal corruption-related convictions in U.S. states, we also provide new evidence that points to the existence of a spatial autoregressive component to explaining corruption. We interpret this as consistent with the theoretical findings.     

Denomination composition of trade and trade balance: evidence from Turkey

The currency denominations of a country's exports and imports are not necessarily the same. If this is the case, then a change in the exchange rate parity among major currencies will affect the trade balance. The empirical evidence provided from Turkey – where exports are mostly denominated in Euros and imports are mostly denominated in USD – suggests that an appreciation of the Euro against the USD would increase the output in the long-run, appreciate the local currency and improve the trade balance for the 1985:01 2003:07 period.     

Total factor productivity and macroeconomic instability

Total factor productivity (TFP) is an important component of growth for most countries. This article assesses the role of macroeconomic instability on TFP growth. We consider volatility in inflation, openness of an economy and financial market deepness as measures of macroeconomic instability. Empirical evidence provided from Turkey suggests that volatility of openness and financial market deepness reduce TFP growth, whereas volatility of inflation increases TFP growth.     

Are State Renewable Portfolio Standards Contagious?

This study examines whether the target levels of a state's renewable portfolio standard (RPS) are influenced by target levels in neighboring states, controlling for state‐specific characteristics. Contrary to previous studies, target levels in neighboring states have a positive and statistically significant impact. In addition, the renewable energy potential and transmission capacity within a state, as well as in neighboring states, all have a positive and statistically significant impact. Both a state's unemployment rate and its educational attainment have a positive impact. Furthermore, states with Democratic governors have higher RPS target levels. The results also indicate significant regional variation in RPS target levels.     

Costs of a missing FTA: the case of Turkey and Algeria

Turkey has been deeply integrated with the EU, its largest trading partner, particularly following the Customs Union agreement in 1996. However, the free trade agreements (FTAs) signed by the EU with third party countries may create some unfair competitive pressures, market share and welfare losses for Turkey. This study investigates the impact of the FTA signed by Algeria and the EU in 2005 on Turkey’s trade flows. Covering 181 countries, a difference-in-differences analysis embedded in an extended gravity framework is employed to quantify the trade effects of the EU-Algeria FTA for the period of 1996–2013. Our findings suggest that bilateral trade between Turkey and Algeria is affected adversely due to the FTA. The counterfactual analysis shows that Turkish exports and imports to/from Algeria could have been 12 and 17% higher, respectively, had there been no FTA between the EU and Algeria.