The knowledge management strategy and the formation of innovative networks in emerging industries

This paper presents an agent-based simulation model with local network externality to analyze strategic interactions over investment on new economic knowledge. R&D knowledge flows and spillovers are the results of non-cooperative games played between neighboring agents in the model. The model demonstrates a situation where no agents have incentives to hide their economic knowledge, a situation that is observed in open source software development projects. The likelihood of obtaining a stable situation where new economic knowledge is openly shared is increased when heterogeneity of agents is introduced.      

The organizational evolution of innovative activity in the US semiconductor industry: Technological specialization and diversification

This article analyzes the organizational evolution of innovative activity in the contemporary high-tech industry. It has been argued that by showing illuminating examples and proposing theoretical explanations, the innovation process has been fragmented and distributed among several organizations. In other words, ‘division of innovative labor’ emerges. However, one of the problems of this argument lies in its lack of systematic empirical analysis. Using the United States Patent and Trademark Office patent database, this article analyzes the organization of innovative activity in the US semiconductor industry. It is shown that ‘technological specialization’ has not occurred in this industry as a whole. In addition, it is also shown that there are two distinct modes of development of technology, namely, ‘specialized development of technology’ and ‘diversified development of technology’, in which the share of the latter has been steadily increasing. These results imply that contrary to the earlier conventional arguments, division of labor is not a common phenomenon in the production of technological knowledge.     

The Yonmenkaigi System Method: An Implementation-Oriented Group Decision Support Approach

The Yonmenkaigi System Method (YSM) is presented as a participatory method to support group decision making. It is composed of four main steps: conducting a SWOT analysis, completing the Yonmenkaigi chart, debating, and presenting the group’s action plan. The YSM is an implementation and collaboration-oriented approach that incorporates the synergistic process of mutual learning, decision making and capacity building. It fosters small and modest breakthrough and/or innovative strategy development. The YSM addresses the issues of resource management and mobilization as well as effective involvement and commitment by participants and provides a strategic communication platform for participants. A case study for developing a disaster reduction action plan, carried out with a local community organization in the City of Kyoto, Japan, is used to demonstrate the characteristics of the YSM.     

Subjective probability over a subjective decision tree

A state space has been assumed as a primitive for modeling uncertainty, which presumes that the analyst knows all the uncertainties a decision maker (DM) perceives. This is problematic because states are private information of the DM, and hence are not directly observable to the analyst. Dekel et al. [Representing preferences with a unique subjective state space, Econometrica 69 (2001) 891-934] derive, rather than assume, the subjective state space from preference over suitable choice objects.In a dynamic setting, a decision tree, that is, a pair consisting of a state space and a filtration, has been taken as a primitive. This assumption is also problematic—a decision tree should be derived rather than assumed as a primitive. We formulate a three-stage extension of the above literature in order to model a DM who anticipates subjective uncertainty to be resolved gradually over time. We identify also subjective beliefs on the subjective state space.     

A scenario analysis of energy requirements and energy intensity for China's rapidly developing society in the year 2020

Both energy requirements and energy intensity are crucial to the development of a society. This article uses an input–output model to assess how social and economic changes will affect energy requirements and energy intensity for China's rapidly developing society. According to the proposed input–output model, six scenarios were sequentially developed by introducing major impact factors, such as technological advancement, population, income, and urbanization, in order to project China's energy requirements. Based on 1997 data, the impact of economic and social changes on China's energy requirements in 2010 and 2020 were quantitatively analyzed. The results show that technological advancement has the strongest impact on energy intensity. Based on these findings, some related conclusions and corresponding policy recommendations are proposed.     

Signal Extraction Problems in Seismology*

The earth's surface is under continuous influence of a variety of natural forces such as the effect of past earthquakes, wave, wind, tide, air pressure, precipitation and a variety of human induced sources. Since it is almost impossible to describe the response to these noise inputs precisely, for automatic processing of seismic data, proper statistical modeling is necessary. In this paper, we describe four specific examples of time series modeling for signal extraction problems related to seismology. Namely, we consider 1) the estimation of the arrival time of a seismic signal, 2) the extraction of small seismic signal from noisy data, 3) the detection of the coseismic effect in groundwater level data contaminated by various effects from air pressure etc., and 4) the estimation of changing spectral characteristic of seismic record.     

Cost-effectiveness of rivaroxaban versus warfarin for stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation in the Japanese healthcare setting

Abstract

Aims: This article aimed to examine the cost-effectiveness of rivaroxaban in comparison to warfarin for stroke prevention in Japanese patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF), from a public healthcare payer’s perspective.

Materials and methods: Baseline event risks were obtained from the J-ROCKET AF trial and the treatment effect data were taken from a network meta-analysis. The other model inputs were extracted from the literature and official Japanese sources. The outcomes included the number of ischaemic strokes, myocardial infarctions, systemic embolisms and bleedings avoided, life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The scenario analysis considered treatment effect data from the same network meta-analysis.

Results: In comparison with warfarin, rivaroxaban was estimated to avoid 0.284 ischaemic strokes per patient, to increase the number of QALYs by 0.535 per patient and to decrease the total costs by ¥118,892 (€1,011.11) per patient (1 JPY = 0.00850638 EUR; XE.com, 7 October 2019). Consequently, rivaroxaban treatment was found to be dominant compared to warfarin. In the scenario analysis, the ICER of rivaroxaban versus warfarin was ¥2,873,499 (€24,446.42) per QALY.

Limitations: The various sources of data used resulted in the heterogeneity of the cost-effectiveness analysis results. Although, rivaroxaban was cost-effective in the majority of cases.

Conclusion: Rivaroxaban is cost-effective against warfarin for stroke prevention in Japanese patients with NVAF, giving the payer WTP of 5,000,000 JPY.     

Time and space in income accounting

Inspired by the work of DR Scott, we explore the formation of an internal logic of income accounting that bestows upon the income accounting system an institutional status. As large scale modern corporations emerged in the market, imaginative ways of doing income accounting were developed and exercised in the 19th century. Creative accounting practices of the time were eventually evolved into what is now known to be the accrual process. A distinctive feature of the accrual accounting system, that has the accrual process as its essential part, is that it creates internal space demarcated (de-marketed) from the external world. In the demarcated space of the accrual accounting system, “the Emptying-out of Internal Transaction Time” takes place. Internal transactions enable the accrual accounting system to generate smoothed income series out of cashflow chaos, which function as an “attractor” in the complex relationships between managers and stakeholders. Creative accounting practices induced phase transition so as to establish the accrual accounting system as a legitimate social institution.     

Stationary Markov equilibria on a non-compact self-justified set

The existence of stationary processes of temporary equilibria is examined in an OLG model, where there are finitely many commodities and consumers in each period, and endowments profiles and expectations profiles are subject to stochastic shocks. A state space is taken as the set of all payoff-relevant variables, and dynamics of the economy is captured as a stochastic process in the state space. In our model, however, the state space does not necessarily admit a compact-truncation consistent with the intertemporal restrictions because distributions over expectations profiles may have non-compact supports. As shown in Duffie et al. [Duffie, D., Geanakoplos, J., Mas-Colell, A., McLennan, A., 1994. Stationary Markov equilibria. Econometrica 62, 745–781), such a compact-truncation, called a self-justified set, is essential for the existence of stationary Markov equilibria. We extend their existence theorem so as to be applicable to our model.     

On the consistency of stationary Markov equilibria with an exogenous distribution

A technique to show the existence of stationary Markov equilibria is provided by Duffie, Geanakoplos, Mas-Colell and McLennan Econometrica 62 (1994) 745-781. In many applications, a state space is constructed as the product of a space of exogenous variables and a space of endogenous variables. In addition, the exogenous shock is given and is a Markov process with a transition probability and an initial distribution. Then their theorem does not ensure the existence of a stationary Markov equilibrium that is consistent with the exogenous distribution. In this paper, we give a sufficient condition for settling the inconsistency problem.