Is Poverty in the African DNA (Gene)?

A 2015 World Bank report on attainment of Millennium Development Goals concludes that the number of extremely poor has dropped substantially in all regions with the exception of Sub‐Saharan Africa. We assess if poverty is in the African gene by revisiting the findings of Ashraf and Galor and reformulating the “Out of Africa Hypothesis” into a “Genetic Diversity Hypothesis” for a “Within Africa Analysis.” We motivate this reformulation with five shortcomings largely drawn from the 2015 findings of the African Gerome Variation Project, notably: limitations in the conception of space, an African dummy in genetic diversity, linearity in migratory patterns, migratory origins and underpinnings of genetic diversity in Africa. Ashraf and Galor have concluded that cross‐country differences in development can be explained by genetic diversity in a Kuznets or inverted U‐shaped pattern. Our results from an exclusive African perspective partially confirm the underlying hypothesis in a contemporary context, but not in the historical analysis. From a historical context, the nexus is U‐shaped for migratory distance, mobility index and predicted diversity while for the contemporary analysis; it is hump shaped for ancestry‐adjusted predicted diversity. Hence from a within‐Africa comparative standpoint, poverty is not in the African gene.     

Long-term vision and economic development

This paper examines the effect on economic development of whether a country's policymakers adopt a long-term vision. We use a novel institutional variable that indicates whether policymakers have a long-term strategic vision. However, the difficulty in estimating a causal effect is that long-term vision is endogenous to economic development. Therefore, we use the future-time reference language variables introduced in American Economic Review, 103, 690; 2013 as instrumental variables for long-term vision. To account for endogeneity, the paper conducts two-stage least-squares estimations where the language instruments are used in the first stage to find an exogenous source of variation in long-term vision. The results show that long-term vision, instrumented by future-time reference, explains cross-country variations in economic development. These results are robust even after the inclusion of control variables and after the exclusion of outliers.     

Genetic distance and cognitive human capital: a cross-national investigation

This paper explores the correlates of the intelligence quotient and cognitive ability by focusing on genetic distance to frontier nations. The results based on cross-sectional data from 167 countries suggest that genetic distance to global frontiers has a negative relationship with the employed human capital variables. Countries that are genetically far from leading nations tend to have lower levels of human capital with the negative correlation to the USA frontier averagely higher relative to the UK frontier. The sign is consistent and survives the control of macroeconomic, geographic, institutional and other covariates. Policy implications are discussed.     

“This One Is 400 Libyan Dinars,This One Is 500”: Insights from Cognitive Human Capital and Slave Trade

One of the most disturbing contemporary episodes in human history that has been decried globally is the recent Libyan experience of slave trade, where migrants captured end-up being sold as slaves. We contribute to the understanding of this phenomenon by investigating the role of cognitive human capital on slave trade. To this end, we use the historic intelligence and slave trade variables, respectively, as the independent and outcome variables of interest. Our findings show a negative relationship between slave trade and cognitive human capital. Hence, the slave trade is more apparent when cognitive human capital is low. The Ordinary Least Squares findings are robust to the control for outliers, uncertainty about the model and Tobit regressions. We substantiate why from the perspective of massive sensitization and education, the non-contemporary relationship between cognitive ability and slave trade established in this study has contemporary practical policy relevance in efforts to stem the tide of clandestine travel to Europe through countries in which clandestine migrants are captured and sold as slaves.     

Does Intelligence Affect Economic Diversification?

This paper extends the growing literature on knowledge economy by investigating the effect of intelligence on economic diversification. Using a battery of estimation techniques that are robust to endogeneity, we find that human capital has positive correlations with export diversification, manufactured added value and export manufactures. This empirical evidence is based on a world sample of 170 countries for the year 2010. The findings have significant implications for the fight against the Dutch disease. In essence, investing in human capital could bring economic diversity and therefore dampen negative external shocks related to resource‐dependence. Other knowledge‐economy implications are discussed.     

Middle Class in Africa: Determinants and Consequences

This study complements the inclusive growth literature by examining the determinants and consequences of the middle class in a continent where economic growth has been relatively high. The empirical evidence is based on a sample of 33 African countries for a 2010 cross-sectional study. Ordinary least squares, two-stage-least squares, three-stage-least squares and seemingly unrelated regressions estimation techniques are employed to regress a plethora of middle class indicators, notably, the: floating, middle-class with floating, middle-class without floating, lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income categories. Results can be classified into two main strands. First, results on determinants broadly show that GDP per capita and education positively affect all middle class dependent variables. However, we establish a negative nexus for the effect of ethnic fragmentation, political stability in general and partially for economic vulnerability. Simple positive correlations have been observed for: the size of the informal sector, openness and democracy. Second, on the consequences, the middle class enables the accumulation of human and infrastructural capital, while its effect is null on political stability and democracy in the short run but positive for governance and modernisation. Policy implications are discussed.