Revising price history: consumer price index for Norway 1492–2018

ABSTRACT

The paper presents a new combined annual cost of living and consumer price index for Norway covering 1492–2018, indicating that Norwegian price history has to be revised. The new historical price index is constructed on a significantly richer data material, which also makes it cover a longer period of price history than the existing one. This is made possible by the compilation of quantitative data from numerous sources, mostly originating from the eighteenth, nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, with grain prices stretching back to 1492. The new combined cost of living and consumer price index is constructed by a Laspeyres approach with shifting baskets for commodities and expenditure groups.

The index makes it possible to follow annual inflation and deflation in Norway for a period of 526 years. When comparing to existing indices, the new series reveals that revisions are needed in Norwegian price history. These make the historical price development more in line with those of the neighbouring countries and more in line with the pattern of wholesale prices.     

Diamonds Are a Rebel's Best Friend

Many countries that produce rough diamonds have experienced a highly adverse pattern of economic development. In this article, we propose that the primary reason for the negative impact is that diamonds easily become the prize in predatory struggles between loot‐seeking rebels and more or less kleptocratic governments. In weakly institutionalised countries like Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sierra Leone, this theory works well, but it does not explain the impressive growth record of diamond‐rich Botswana and Namibia. For a deeper understanding of these countries’ success, we point at the crucial differences between kimberlite and alluvial mining and the effect of having the world‐leading firm De Beers as a partner. Indeed, we argue that in countries like Angola, diamonds can never be a major vehicle for sustained growth, although the ongoing Kimberley process for eliminating conflict diamonds probably has contributed to making several African countries more stable.     

When to accept a sequence of gambles

When is a sequence of gambles, which is initially rejected eventually accepted? The eventual acceptance is defined as a pair property between the utility function and the sequences of gambles. A sequence of gambles is accepted when the gambles follow a large deviation principle and the utility function is non-satiated and bounded from below in a certain way. The number of gambles required for acceptance is computed.     

Flexibility at different stages in the life cycle of projects: An empirical illustration of the “freedom to maneuver”

Many textbooks on project management present illustrations concerning the relative size of project attributes during different project phases. The derived models all have attributes in common, such as uncertainty, significance of decisions, and degree of freedom to maneuver, that are typically high in the beginning of the project and low in the end. At the same time, variables such as the accumulated cost and available information begin at low levels and end up at a high level at the end of the project. Based on empirical data from projects, this paper illustrates and quantifies one of these attributes, the freedom to maneuver, in different project phases.     

The Impact of Non-Normality and Estimation Methods in SEM on Satisfaction Research in Marketing

This paper discusses consequences of violating the normal distribution assumption imbedded in Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Based on real data from a large sample customer satisfaction survey we follow the procedures as suggested in leading textbooks. We document consequences of this practice and discuss its impact on decision making in marketing.     

Asset Specificity and Vertical Integration

Asset specificity is usually considered to be an argument for vertical integration. The main idea is that specificity induces opportunistic behavior, and that vertical integration reduces the cost of preventing opportunism. In this paper I show that asset specificity can be an argument for non‐integration. In a repeated‐game model of self‐enforcing relational contracts, it is shown that when parties are non‐integrated, increasing degrees of asset specificity make it possible to design relational contracts with higher‐powered incentives.     

The economic costs of biological predation

This paper developes a bioeconomic model to analyse the economic losses from the reduced harvesting of prey species resulting from an increase in the stock of a natural predator. Examples of large mammals creating economic damage are whales and African elephants. The economic losses depend critically on the actual management of the prey stock, although the three measures we develop are equal when the stock is managed so as to maximize the sustained economic rent from the prey species. Predation losses are illustrated by the case of the Northeastern Atlantic Minke whale, where the estimate of the average predation cost per whale in 1991–1992 is between $US 1780 and $US 2370, using Norwegian cost and earnings data. A ten percent stock increase is estimated to cause a loss of almost $US 19 million to the fishers of the prey species. If half of this cost were assigned to Norway it would be equivalent to 2.8 and 6.7 percent of the gross profits of the Norwegian cod and herring fisheries, respectively.     

Chernobyl Effects on Domestic and Inbound Tourism in Sweden -- A Time Series Analysis

This paper estimates the impact of the Chernobyl nuclear accident on domestic and international tourism in Sweden. From ARIMA time series forecasts, outlier search, and intervention analysis based on regional monthly accommodation data from 1978–1989, no effect on domestic tourism is found. However, there is an enduring deterrence effect on incoming tourism. The loss of gross revenue from incoming tourism because of the Chernobyl accident, is estimated to 2.5 billion SEK.     

Consequences of ambivalence on satisfaction and loyalty

The key objective of this study was to understand the consequences of subjective ambivalence on customer satisfaction, loyalty, and the satisfaction–loyalty relationship. The conceptual and theoretical discussions were derived largely from recent research in social psychology and integrated with marketing literature on satisfaction and loyalty. Given that product evaluations are typically positive and extreme, these findings indicate a negative relationship between ambivalence and satisfaction. Even though a great deal of the variance in ambivalence is shared with satisfaction, ambivalence did prove to have an independent and direct effect on loyalty. Ambivalent consumers are not only less loyal because they are less satisfied, but for other reasons, as well. Ambivalence was not found to moderate the satisfaction–loyalty relationship. The results of the study underscore the importance of taking ambivalence into consideration when measuring satisfaction and modeling satisfaction–loyalty relationships. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

与德里达关于消化力的局限的对话

90年代早期,在准备《如黄鼠狼吞蛋:一篇关于忧郁及同类相食的文章》一书时我们与晚年的德里达有过一些书信往来。那时他正研究在诠释学与德国唯心论中他所谓的"同类相食的比喻"。他很感激我们提供给他的一些诺瓦利斯残篇。