Inward Investment and Technical Progress in the United Kingdom Manufacturing Sector

This paper investigates the impact of direct investment by foreign‐owned companies on technical progress and hence labour productivity in the UK manufacturing sector. Using an industry‐level panel data set we find that foreign‐owned firms have a significant positive effect on the level of technical efficiency in domestic firms. There is evidence of significant intra‐industry and inter‐industry spillovers from inward investment. These findings remain robust even when other factors such as imports and domestic R&D expenditures are allowed for. Inward investment appears to be a much more important source of technical progress than foreign trade.     

A cross-country comparison of the demand for labour in Europe

A Cross-Country Comparison of the Demand for Labour in Europe.-This paper investigates structural differences in the demand for labour in France, Germany, and the UK. It finds substantial differences in the sensitivity of the demand for labour to international product demand and factor prices in all three countries. In particular, it reacts to domestic factor prices in Germany but international cost competitiveness in France and the UK; it depends upon European-wide product demand in France and Germany and a wider measure of product demand in the UK. The authors attribute these differences to product market conditions and institutional factors rather than to differences in the production technology.     

German Monetary Union: An historical counterfactual analysis

This paper views German Monetary Union as a sequence of large asymmetric shocks to the European economies. As such it can be analysed with a large, new-Keynesian macro-econometric model of the relevant economies such as NiGEM. The ‘news’ in the sequence of shocks is assessed by analysing contemporary, NiGEM based, forecasts, and important events are then ‘peeled-off’ in reverse order. The resulting counterfactual history analyses the effects of the collapse of the Soviet economy on the EC and Scandinavian economies, and it is argued that the recession in countries such as Finland was not primarily caused by trade effects. The costs of support programmes for East Germany are then removed, creating a negative fiscal shock. Finally the paper analyses the overall effects of the set of shocks. In each part of the counterfactual history, individuals from forward looking expectations and the authorities operate fiscal solvency rules and target monetary aggregates.     

The OECD's new global model

This paper provides a summary of the OECD's new global macroeconometric model, including an overview of model structure and a selection of simulations illustrating its main properties. Compared with its predecessors, the new model is more compact and regionally aggregated, but gives more weight to the focus of policy interests in global trade and financial linkages. The country model structures typically combine short-term Keynesian-type dynamics with a consistent long-run neo-classical supply-side. While retaining a conventional treatment of international trade and payments linkages, the model has a greater degree of stock-flow consistency, with explicit modelling of domestic and international assets, liabilities and associated income streams. Account is also taken of the influence of financial and housing market developments on asset valuation and domestic expenditures via house and equity prices, interest rates and exchange rates. As a result, the model gives more prominence to wealth and wealth effects in determining longer-term outcomes and the role of asset prices in the transmission of international shocks both to goods and financial markets.     

Real exchange rate, agglomerations, and irreversibilities: macroeconomic policy and FDI in EMU

Fiscal policy in EMU has to be evaluated in the light of thechanging nature of capital mobility in Europe and its effectson growth. Most arguments about the effects of fiscal policyin EMU assume that we live in a perfect competition world witha unique natural rate of output for each country. The removalof barriers to foreign direct investment (FDI) accompanied bythe prevalence of imperfect competition mean that the naturalrate of output is to be determined by locational competition.We show that FDI is influenced by relative costs and is attractedby agglomerations, and that the level of technology dependson the stock of FDI. Sustained expansionary fiscal policieswill raise costs and make locations less attractive. Agglomerationscould be destroyed by these higher costs, and the size of thenation will shrink. These effects will constrain policy-makersmuch more than the Stability Pact.     

Modelling structural change in the UK housing market: A comparison of alternative house price models

This paper develops a new approach to the modelling of house prices in the UK, with housing demand being conditioned directly on consumers' expenditure rather than the determinants of expenditure. Conditioning on consumption ensures that the permanent income measure used in determining the level of consumption is consistently reflected in housing demand. The effects of financial liberalisation on the relative consumption of housing and non-housing goods and services are captured using the average loan-value ratio for first-time buyers. We also allow for financial effects via the real user cost of home ownership. House prices are assumed to adjust so as to clear the housing market. The proposed model is found to have structurally stable parameters across the housing market downturn since 1990. Statistical comparisons with the more conventional models in use at HM Treasury and the Bank of England during the early 1990s provide additional evidence in favour of our proposed approach.     

Children’s Snacks,their Ads and Consumer Sovereignty

Abstract

The concept of sovereign consumer preferences is challenged from three sides: child consumers, unhealthy food and advertising. The two theoretical concepts of merit goods and libertarian paternalism are implemented in order to classify situations in which full consumer sovereignty does not apply. An empirical analysis of ads for children’s snacks reveals the libertarian paternalist perspective as helpful for understanding the demand for and justification of ‘soft’ governmental intervention in the case of the advertised snacks, whilst the ads for these snacks may well be demerit goods. The banning or heavy taxation of these ads is therefore advocated.     

MONETARY POLICY CHANGES AND UNIT ROOT STATISTICS

Conventional unit root tests are biased towards non-rejection of the null when applied to variables characterized by a one-time change in their mean. Suggested modifications allowing for a break point require identification of an exogenous change initiated at the time of the break and not subsequently reversed. This paper suggests that modified tests are particularly useful in dealing with legislative changes. Two UK examples are given; the abolition of exchange controls in 1979 and the changes in monetary policy in 1980. Results suggest that allowing for a break changes the apparent order of integration of portfolio shares and real interest rates.