What Enhances Insider Trading Profitability?

This study analyses the factors triggering insider trading profitability. Since there is not much evidence on this topic in the continental-European context, we focus on the Spanish stock market. Our findings show that the main relevant factors (the timing ability of the insider, the transparency of the transaction and the level of free cash flow of the firm) are related to insiders’ opportunities behaviour, motivated by the lack of either managerial control within the firm or enforcement of insider trading regulation. The level of ownership concentration, the spread and the interaction between the size and the transparency of the transaction are other relevant factors, some of them tested for the first time in the insider trading literature.      

Measuring the Impact of Corporate Investment Announcements on Share Prices: The Spanish Experience

We bring together three disparate strands of literature to develop a comprehensive empirical framework to examine the efficiency of security analysts' earnings forecasts in Singapore. We focus specifically on how the increased uncertainty and the negative market sentiment during the period of the Asian crisis affected the quality of earnings forecasts. While we find no evidence of inefficiencies in the pre-crisis period, our results suggest that after the onset of the crisis, analysts (1) issued forecasts that were systematically upward biased; (2) did not fully incorporate the (negative) earnings-related news; and (3) predicted earnings changes which proved too extreme.     

The Return Performance of Cubic Market Model: An Application to Emerging Markets

This article studies the performance of the high-order moment capital asset pricing model (CAPM) market models in emerging markets. We apply the cubic market model (4-moment CAPM) to 16 emerging market stock indices ranging from January 2010 to September 2015. Performance of the model is evaluated through the Fama and MacBeth’s two-step regression and through different corrections proposed in the literature, as well as generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation. According to Fama–MacBeth’s procedure, CAPM, the quadratic and cubic market models seem to be insignificant for the analyzed sample; however, the GMM estimation shows that quadratic model is valid for Indian, Polish, and Thai country indices, whereas cubic market model is accurate for Indian country index.     

Flexible distribution functions,higher-order preferences and optimal portfolio allocation

In this paper we show that flexible probability distribution functions, in addition to being able to capture stylized facts of financial returns, can be used to identify pure higher-order effects of investors' optimizing behavior. We employ the five-parameter weighted generalized beta of the second kind distribution—and other density functions nested within it—to determine the conditions under which risk averse, prudent and temperate agents are diversifiers in the standard portfolio choice theory. Within this framework, we illustrate through comparative statics the economic significance of higher-order moments in return distributions.     

Bidding ‘as if’ risk neutral in experimental first price auctions without information feedback

Experimental research on first price sealed bid auctions has usually involved repeated settings with information feedback on winning bids and payoffs after each auction round. Relative to the risk neutral Nash equilibrium, significantly higher bidding has been reported. The present paper reports the results of experimental first price auctions with n=7 where feedback on payoffs and winning bids is withheld. Under these conditions, average bidding is below the risk neutral Nash equilibrium prediction but converges to it with repetition.

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Electronic Supplementary Material  The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.      

Forecasting Heavy‐Tailed Densities with Positive Edgeworth and Gram‐Charlier Expansions*

This article presents a new semi‐nonparametric (SNP) density function, named Positive Edgeworth‐Sargan (PES). We show that this distribution belongs to the family of (positive) Gram‐Charlier (GC) densities and thus it preserves all the good properties of this type of SNP distributions but with a much simpler structure. The in‐ and out‐of‐sample performance of the PES is compared with symmetric and skewed GC distributions and other widely used densities in economics and finance. The results confirm the PES as a good alternative to approximate financial returns distribution, specially when skewness is not severe.     

Testing densities with financial data: an empirical comparison of the EdgeworthSargan density to the Students t

The Edgeworth—Sargan density has been shown capable of capturing salient empirical regularities of financial data in some studies. The main purpose of the reported study is to compare its performance with other densities, most notably to the Student t. Both densities can account for thick tails, and asymmetry One important by product of the comparison is to test the existence of moments. The comparison of densities is carried out with daily financial observations, spanning 25 years of data from two major world stock markets. Attention is paid to the fitting of other empirical regularities, and especially to the peak, frequently found at the middle of the densities.