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1.
The hazard rate of investment is derived within a real‐option model, and its properties are analysed so as to directly study the relation between uncertainty and investment. Maximum likelihood estimates of the hazard are calculated using a sample of multinational enterprises (MNEs) that invested in Central and Eastern Europe over the period 1990–98. Employing a standard, non‐parametric specification of the hazard, our measure of uncertainty has a negative effect on investment, but the reduced‐form model is unable to control for nonlinearities in the relationship. The structural estimation of the option‐based hazard is instead able to account for the nonlinearities and exhibits a significant value of waiting, although the latter is independent of our measure of uncertainty. This finding supports the existence of alternative channels through which uncertainty can affect investment. 相似文献
2.
This paper presents a multilateral comparison of relative levels and structures of costs of production in Japan, the US and West Germany. The analysis is carried out by using harmonized input–output tables, which are converted at US prices by using adjusted sectoral purchasing power parities. A new accounting methodology is derived from recent developments of index number theory, whereas the chosen multilateral comparison procedure gives results that are invariant with respect to the order of the pairs of countries examined. 相似文献
3.
Silvia Rizzi Søren Kjærgaard Marie-Pier Bergeron Boucher Carlo Giovanni Camarda Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen James W. Vaupel 《International Journal of Forecasting》2021,37(1):95-104
Mortality forecasting has crucial implications for insurance and pension policies. A large amount of literature has proposed models to forecast mortality using cross-sectional (period) data instead of longitudinal (cohort) data. As a consequence, decisions are generally based on period life tables and summary measures such as period life expectancy, which reflect hypothetical mortality rather than the mortality actually experienced by a cohort. This study introduces a novel method to forecast cohort mortality and the cohort life expectancy of non-extinct cohorts. The intent is to complete the mortality profile of cohorts born up to 1960. The proposed method is based on the penalized composite link model for ungrouping data. The performance of the method is investigated using cohort mortality data retrieved from the Human Mortality Database for England & Wales, Sweden, and Switzerland for male and female populations. 相似文献
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This article estimates the impact of longevity risk on pension systems by combining the prediction based on a Lee-Carter mortality model with the projected pension payments for different cohorts of retirees. We measure longevity risk by the difference between the upper bound of the total old-age pension expense and its mean estimate. This difference is as high as 4% of annual GDP over the period 2040–2050. The impact of longevity risk is sizeably reduced, but not fully eliminated, by the introduction of indexation of retirement age to expected life at retirement. Our evidence speaks in favor of a market for longevity risk and calls for a closer scrutiny of the potential redistributive effects of longevity risk. 相似文献
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Due to the adoption of the household as a unit of analysis, researchers have failed to identify accurate measures of women's income poverty. This study proposes an individualized measure of European poverty to highlight gender differences in the economic crisis. Employing data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) for the period 2007–12, it compares the household-based at-risk-of-poverty rate (ARPR) and the individualized financial dependency rate (FDR). The study shows that the gender gap in poverty in Europe is considerably higher when computed through FDR. Indeed, since the ARPR constitutes a proxy of the household's average conditions, it levels down gender inequalities within the household and also variations in individuals’ incomes over time. Only more detailed data collection on intrahousehold resource sharing will possibly allow the development of more precise and realistic indicators of women's and men's risks of poverty and financial dependency. 相似文献
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We consider a bisector reproduction model in which money is introduced as a pure means of exchange issued by a bank at the producers' requests. Each capitalist aims at maximizing accumulation in his own sector. Their plans are based on available quantities and expected prices. Effective prices are determined by a market mechanism. Temporary disequilibria occur in both physical and monetary terms. The settlement of the monetary balances is operated by means of a transfer of capital goods. Final allocations and effective productions are thus determined. The dynamics of the economy are those of a sequence of temporary disequilibria and let appear several possibilities (local or global stability, cycles) depending on the values of the parameters. 相似文献
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The communication that Destination Management Organizations (DMOs) address to destination stakeholders plays a central role in attracting attention and resources for sustainable destination development and disclosing the efforts made to be a sustainable territory. There has been extensive analysis on the role of official tourism websites that addresses both DMO's internal and external stakeholders. However, less exploration is available on the relationship between the contents disclosed through tourism websites and the strategic positioning of the destination. This study empirically examines that link with a focus on ‘green/sustainable/responsible' travel. Results show a positive association between the orientation to sustainability in online communication and both sustainable regulation of the tourism sector and tourism development. In contrast, there is no significant association with destination size, tourism maturity and pricing policies. 相似文献