Technical analysis as the representation of typical cognitive biases

The present research provides a justification for the popularity of the technical analysis. It finds that financial analysts firmly discriminate between two types of technical signals—those based on typical cognitive biases and “empty” signals that sound like a technical analysis but are without any connotation with psychological inclinations.At the same time that they treat them differently, different analysts rate these items very similarly. These results suggest that the popularity of technical analysis is associated with its relation to the typical cognitive biases of humans.     

大都市郊区新城通勤行为空间研究——以南京市为例

通过对南京的东山、仙林和江北三个新城的深入考察和访问,并以问卷为基础,研究了新城居民在通勤行为空间上的主要表现,以及在居民通勤行为中新城和主城的空间互动机制。结果表明,一方面,新城的结构与功能影响其通勤流的空间分布,另一方面,主城和新城之间的互动关系在新城通勤空间的发展中起着尤为重要的作用。     

信任、不信任与民主制的悖论

本文论述了信任与不信任产生的条件.一个全面的信任模型至少要包含三个方面,即"被信任者的可信度"、"信任者的基本信任倾向"以及催生信任的文化因素.信任文化的产生既有结构原因,又有历史原因.本文认为民主秩序是孕育信任的重要力量.     

Total factor productivity, the east Asian miracle, and the world production frontier

Total Factor Productivity, the East Asian Miracle, and the World Production Frontier. — The post WWII growth of the East Asian Tiger states has stimulated the discussion about its determinants. Young and Krugman hold that high capital accumulation rather than gains in efficiency or technological progress has spurred growth. Nelson and Pack, however, have recently criticized the methods of measuring technological progress. Applying the nonparametric approach to frontier production function determination and the Malmquist index of total factor productivity change, the authors take up this criticism. They calculate productivity indicators for a sample of 18 American, Asian, and European countries. For the Tiger states, their results confirm that capital accumulation was the main source of growth in 1960-1973, whereas they find evidence for an increasing importance of efficiency improvements for the growth in 1973-1990.     

Firm Size and Performance of Manufacturing Enterprises in P.R. China: The Case of Shanghai's Manufacturing Industries

This paper studies the relationship between firm size and technical efficiency of manufacturing enterprises in Shanghai's manufacturing sector from 1989 to 1992. Although our empirical results show that technical efficiency is increasing in the firm size, the group of the smallest enterprises (0–99 workers) have very high technical efficiency. The group of enterprises with size of 100–249.9 workers have the lowest technical efficiency while the largest size (1000 workers or above) group usually have the highest technical efficiency. Finally, technical efficiency computed from net industrial product has large upward biases compared with that computed from gross industrial product.     

E-negotiation System Development: Using Negotiation Protocols to Manage Software Components

A major challenge in developing an e-negotiation system (ENS) is that the system should fit into the context which varies with negotiation cases. To mitigate context dependency, we propose to separate e-negotiation protocols from ENS and adopt a component-oriented approach. In this paper, we present a framework for e-negotiation protocols that implements this approach. The framework has been tested by developing several ENSs of which two had been tested in laboratory negotiation experiments with more than 100 participants.     

Bayesian averaging of classical estimates in forecasting macroeconomic indicators with application of business survey data

In this paper, we develop a methodology for forecasting key macroeconomic indicators, based on business survey data. We estimate a large set of models, using an autoregressive specification, with regressors selected from business and household survey data. Our methodology is based on the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates method. Additionally, we examine the impact of deterministic and stochastic seasonality of the business survey time series on the outcome of the forecasting process. We propose an intuitive procedure for incorporating both types of seasonality into the forecasting process. After estimating the specified models, we check the accuracy of the forecasts.     

Analysts' Forecasts Following Forced CEO Changes

This paper examines analysts' earnings forecasts during the period of uncertainty following a change of chief executive officer (CEO). It distinguishes between forced and non‐forced CEO changes, and examines whether analysts utilize their information advantage to reduce the heightened uncertainty of a forced change of CEO. Examining a sample of Australian companies followed by analysts between 1999 and 2009, we find that forecasting accuracy is lower and earnings forecasts are more optimistic for firms experiencing forced CEO turnover compared to firms not undergoing such a change. However, dispersion is not statistically different. The results suggest that forced CEO turnover events provide a challenge to the forecasting environment for analysts. During CEO changes, investors should be aware that forecasts are less accurate and have an optimistic bias.     

International hotel chains and environmental protection: an analysis of Hilton's we care! programme (Europe, 2006–2008)

Using the case study method, this paper evaluates and analyses Hilton's we care! programme for improving the environmental performance of the 70 Hilton Worldwide hotels in operation in Continental Europe in 2006–2008. It explores the practical dimension of “greening” hotel operations in the context of corporate social responsibility (CSR), and demonstrates the close links between CSR and human resource management (HRM) in hotels. It deepens the understanding of corporate environmentalism and seeks to disseminate best practice among hospitality managers. The programme's distinctive and innovative character as well as its weaknesses and strengths are highlighted. Barriers to behavioural change in hotel operation are discussed. The programme involved over 16,000 employees, created hotel-specific action teams linking all employee levels and reduced energy use per square metre by 15%, water use and CO₂ emissions per guest night by 8% each over three years. Avoided utility costs totalled US$16 million, of which US$9.6 million can be attributed to changes in human behaviour. The paper makes a case for a holistic approach that combines the introduction of IT-based measurement and performance-assessing tools with genuine employee empowerment and green awareness raising. The study concludes with future managerial policy recommendations that simultaneously bear upon corporate environmentalism and HRM.     

Grading Innovation in an International Marketing Course: Promoting Student Collaboration and Individual Accountability

In this article, the author proposes an innovative, exam-based homework grading method to facilitate both collaboration among students and individual accountability while learning a complex theory and applying it to solve a problem. Results from this novel approach to grading a comparative advantage theory homework assignment, using an objective exam performance measure to adjust original homework grades, show that students increase their comprehension of the frequently misunderstood theory. This novel grading method can be applied in a variety of contexts to promote student collaboration in preparation of academic work while providing incentives to encourage individual accountability and engagement.