CORRUPTION AND POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC REFORMS: A STRUCTURAL BREAKS APPROACH

In this paper we look at the impact of broad policy reforms on the levels of corruption. We use a structural break approach to identify country-specific time periods in which significant shifts in corruption levels take place. We then correlate these times of change with a set of covariates with specific focus on the impact of democratization, and trade and equity market liberalization. We find robust support for the hypothesis that episodes of reduction in corruption levels tend to be correlated with democratization and equity market liberalization.     

Adolescent premarital childbearing: do economic incentives matter?

This paper develops and tests a three-stage nested logistic model of teenage childbearing that is influenced by economic incentives and costs created by US public policy. The modeling of teenage childbearing involves becoming pregnant, the choice to have an abortion or to bear the child, and the choice to bear the child premaritally or maritally. Data were obtained from a sample of 1718 Black and White women aged 14-16 years in 1979 from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. In 1990, the birth rate among unmarried youth was 29.5/1000 unmarried White women vs. 110.1/1000 unmarried Black women. In the sample, the pregnancy rate was 24% among White teenagers and 48% among Black teenagers. Miscarriages or stillbirths occurred among 11% of Whites and 12% of Blacks. Abortions were performed for 37% of Whites and 12% of Blacks. An incentive variable is the welfare guarantee. Cost variables include the cost of obtaining an abortion and the cost of obtaining contraceptive services and supplies. Access to family planning services is also accounted for in the model. Findings indicate that welfare, abortion, and family planning policy variables have a racially specific impact. For White teenagers, these variables have significant effects on pregnancy outcomes. For Black teenagers, the insignificance may reflect differences in sample size or important unmeasured racial differences in factors that influence fertility and marital behavior. The authors suggest that the rational choice perspective does not adequately explain premarital childbearing. It is also suggested that the specification of the variables on abortion, family planning, and adolescent sexual behavior may be fundamentally different and reflect differences in state attitudes and social customs. Only if the policy variables really change the costs of different pregnancy outcomes will changes in social policy change individual adolescent behavior. The authors state that focusing on only economic incentives did not rule out other influences on premarital childbearing.     

How the internet of things technology enhances emergency response operations

The Internet of Things (IoT) is a novel paradigm that connects the pervasive presence around us of a variety of things or objects to the Internet by using wireless/wired technologies to reach desired goals. Since the concept of the IoT was introduced in 2005, we see the deployment of a new generation of networked smart objects with communication, sensory and action capabilities for numerous applications, mainly in global supply chain management, environment monitoring and other non-stress environments. This paper introduces the IoT technology for use in the emergency management community. Considering the information required for supporting three sequential and distinct rhythms in emergency response operations: mobilization rhythm, preliminary situation assessment rhythm, and intervention rhythm, the paper proposes a modified task-technology fit approach that is used to investigate how the IoT technology can be incorporated into the three rhythms and enhance emergency response operations. The findings from our research support our two hypotheses: H1: IoT technology fits the identified information requirements; and H2: IoT technology provides added value to emergency response operations in terms of obtaining efficient cooperation, accurate situational awareness, and complete visibility of resources.     

The concept and measurement of horizontal inequity

This paper discusses the concept of horizontal equity and presents three formal principles as a basis for making comparisons of the extent of horizontal inequity produced by different redistributions. A condition analogous to the Lorenz criterion used for inequality comparisons is established under which the horizontal inequities of redistributions can be ranked without recourse to a cardinal measure of inequity. Ordinal comparisons are not possible in many cases. The three principles suggest three properties that ‘reasonable’ measures of horizontal inequity should possess. A class of measures which satisfies the properties is proposed. Most other existing measures are found not to satisfy them.     

GROWTH, INEQUALITY, AND POVERTY: A CAUTIONARY NOTE

Economic growth had less impact on poverty rates in the 1980s than in the 1960s. Could this be explained by Locke Anderson's observation that the higher median income, the greater the amount of growth needed to achieve a percentage point fall in the poverty rate? No, higher poverty rates are due instead to the rise in income inequality. With higher inequality, however, trickle down could be as effective in the 1990s as it was in the late 1960s. More generally, assessments of anti-poverty policy must recognize that inequality is as vital to changes in the poverty rate as growth in mean income.     

FX spreads and dealer competition across the 24-hour trading day

This study examines the impact of competition on bid-ask spreadsin the spot foreign exchange market. We measure competitionprimarily by the number of dealers active in the market andfind that bid-ask spreads decrease with an increase in competition,even after controlling for the effects of volatility. The expectedlevel of competition is time varying, highly predictable, anddisplays a strong seasonal component that in part is inducedby geographic concentration of business activity over the 24-hourtrading day. Our estimates show that the expected addition ofone more competing dealer lowers the average quoted spread by1.7%     

The components of the bid-ask spread: a general approach

A simple time-series market microstructure model is constructedwithin which existing models of spread components are reconciled.We show that existing models fail to decompose the spread intoall its components. Two alternative extensions of the simplemodel are developed to identify all the components of the spreadand to estimate the spread at which trades occur. The empiricalresults support the presence of a large order processing componentand smaller, albeit significant, adverse selection and inventorycomponents. The spread components differ significantly accordingto trade size and are also sensitive to assumptions about therelation between orders and trades.     

Volatility in the foreign currency futures market

We examine the volatility implications of around-the-clock foreignexchange trading with transaction data on futures contractsfrom the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the London InternationalFinancial Futures Exchange. We find higher U.S.-European andU.S.-Japanese exchange-rate volatilities during U.S. tradinghours and higher European cross-rate volatilities during Europeantrading hours. While the disclosure of private information throughtrading may partly explain these volatility patterns, we concludethat the increased volatility is more likely driven by macroeconomicnews announcements. An analysis of inter- and intraday dataalso reveals that volatility increases at times that coincidewith the release of U.S. macroeconomic news.     

Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks

The paper sets the neoclassical monetary business cycle model within endogenous growth, adds exchange credit shocks, and finds that money and credit shocks explain much of the velocity variations. The role of the shocks varies across subperiods in an intuitive fashion. Endogenous growth is key to the construction of the money and credit shocks because these have similar effects on velocity, but opposite effects upon growth. The model matches the data's average velocity and simulates well velocity volatility. Its Cagan-like money demand means that money and credit shocks cause greater velocity variation, the higher is the nominal interest rate.     

THE LOGIC OF AUTHORITARIAN BARGAINS

Dictatorships do not survive by repression alone. Rather, dictatorial rule is often explained as an "authoritarian bargain" by which citizens relinquish political rights for economic security. The applicability of the authoritarian bargain to decision-making in non-democratic states, however, has not been thoroughly examined. We conceptualize this bargain as a simple game between a representative citizen and an autocrat who faces the threat of insurrection, and where economic transfers and political influence are simultaneously determined. Our model yields implications for empirical patterns that are expected to exist. Tests of a system of equations with panel data comprising 80 non-democratic states between 1975 and 1999 generally confirm the predictions of the authoritarian-bargain thesis, with some variation across different categories of dictatorship.